Future GT Winner (Edition 2023)

[Bolder]

Like last year, we're at a point were all the best stage racers have already won a GT, so it's likely we won't get a new one for a while. Kuss won thanks to extraordinary circumstances, and the next best performances of non-winners were the 3rd places of Almeida and A. Yates.

Who can win the Giro in the coming years? They could possibly have to beat Thomas, S. Yates, Carapaz, Hindley, Hart and Kuss.

True it feels like that noe, but history suggests we'll see at least one new winner per year on average. We had 3 newbies last year (2022) alone.

I went with Ayuso, C. Rod, and Arensman. If I had to pick just one it would be C. Rod in the Vuelta.

 

[RedheadDane]

Just out of curiosity, let me see if I can guess the reasoning behind each poll-winner:

2012 Christopher Froome - podiumed the Tour, also podiumed the 2011 Vuelta
2013 Nairo Quintana - podiumed the Tour
2014 Fabio Aru - podiumed the Giro
2015 Mikel Landa - podiumed Giro
2016 Esteban Chaves - podiumed Giro
2017 Mikel Landa - 4th at the Tour, also #FreeLanda
2018 Egan Bernal - 15th at the Tour, general Bernal hype?
2019 Tadej Pogačar - podiumed Vuelta
2020 Remco Evenepoel - never even done a GT at the time, general Evenepoel hype?
2021 Jonas Vingegaard - podiumed Tour
2022 Juan Ayuso - podiumed Vuelta

So, the most succesful rider, to never have won this poll, is Roglic with 3 Vueltas and 1 Giro.
Apart from Evenepoel, who had to wait 2 years to get his win, the poll-winners either won a GT the following year, or are yet to win one. Of the previous poll-winners to not yet win a GT, I'd say it's only Ayuso who's still got a chance.

 

[Squire]

Voted Ayuso and Uijtdebroeks. The only two guys in the poll that I can see developing into someone who could win a GT without the help of too many ifs and buts. I assume they will stay more likely to win than any upcoming talents not mentioned in the poll for the next few years. There will of course be some outlier winners or possibly repeats from some previous outlier winners, but it's too difficult to predict when we will have a weak Giro with the top favourite crashing out or something like that.

Now that the big three or four GT riders have all had their first win, we could have a new era like 2013-17 with very few new winners.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

So, the most succesful rider, to never have won this poll, is Roglic with 3 Vueltas and 1 Giro.

Incorrect, the most successful rider never to have won this poll is Merckx.

Am I doing a good impression of you?

 

[DNP-Old]

One guy not yet mentioned but with really high potential is Max Poole. When coming into the juniors in 2020, it was not Uijtdebroeks who was the biggest thing, it was Poole. While Cian has been taking the slow approach, Poole is taking the snail approach. I feel like he'll need a change of teams to start contending at some point, but the talent is there.

 

[Pantani_lives]

My votes went to Ayuso and Uijtdebroeks, the same two as last year. They have confirmed their talent and they're still very young. Ayuso looks like the next Spanish Vuelta winner. Uijtdebroeks needs to work on his ITT position in the wind tunnel, but his consistency in the mountains over three weeks looks promising.

 

[RedheadDane]

Incorrect, the most successful rider never to have won this poll is Merckx.

Am I doing a good impression of you?

To have featured* in the poll, but never won! You frikkin' idiot...

*At least I'm pretty sure Roglic has featured. I'm also pretty sure Merckx hasn't.

 

[rallybanana]

Never didd I think I would vote for a young overhyped Belgian in one of these polls but here we are.

Is Uijtdebroeks really overhyped? One week ago his rider thread had fewer posts than the Enzo Hincapie thread.

 

[Potomac]

Is Uijtdebroeks really overhyped? One week ago his rider thread had fewer posts than the Enzo Hincapie thread.

Enzo is crazily under hyped

 

[RedheadDane]

Enzo is crazily under hyped

I suspect he has about the right about of hype for a kid who's not even a junior yet.

 

[Netserk]

True it feels like that noe, but history suggests we'll see at least one new winner per year on average. We had 3 newbies last year (2022) alone.

I went with Ayuso, C. Rod, and Arensman. If I had to pick just one it would be C. Rod in the Vuelta.

I don't think the GC Power Ranking has been so saturated with GT wins as it is now (on my list the top-7 have all won a GT, and I could have added Hart as well). After the 2014 Giro comes closest, or maybe after Aru won (as he was also a clear poll winner). In 2015 when Landa won the poll, Dumoulin was 2nd and he was the only one in the poll who would eventually win a GT. I cannot fault @Pantani_lives for not including Thomas in the poll back then, nor any of the other upcoming GT winners, as they weren't in the picture yet at that time.

So it wouldn't surprise me if only 1 rider in the poll will win a GT or if none of them will.

 

[Netserk]

What would the GC Power Ranking had looked like after 2015?

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Quintana
4. Nibali
5. Valverde
6. Aru
7. Landa
8. Purito
9. Porte
10. Dumoulin

If that is an accurate depicting of the expectations at the time, the top-6 had all won a GT, but the following three would never win one. Maybe Majka would even rank above Dumoulin? If so, none of those who hadn't already won one would ever win one.

 

[Red Rick]

That is true but you still need to reach a level higher than, say, Mikel Landa to win a soft Giro. Or at least hit it for 3 weeks.
Otherwise you're not beating the Hindley or TGH of this world.
I'm not entirely sure the current level of Mas or Ayuso would be enough.

Part of me kinda thinks just how soft the Giro might get next year. Kuss might literally be the favorite.

 

[Squire]

One guy not yet mentioned but with really high potential is Max Poole. When coming into the juniors in 2020, it was not Uijtdebroeks who was the biggest thing, it was Poole. While Cian has been taking the slow approach, Poole is taking the snail approach. I feel like he'll need a change of teams to start contending at some point, but the talent is there.

Interesting shout, I guess him and Lenny are so far looking the best out of the 2003 generation when discounting Cian (who feels like he's been around for much longer). And I guess a top 5 WT stage race result gives him some credentials in this discussion, as opposed to other great but unconfirmed talents like Nordhagen, Christen or Morgado.

 

[Netserk]

Part of me kinda thinks just how soft the Giro might get next year. Kuss might literally be the favorite.

That could be, if his main opponents are S. Yates, Carapaz, Almeida and whoever Ineos sends.

 

[DNP-Old]

Interesting shout, I guess him and Lenny are so far looking the best out of the 2003 generation when discounting Cian (who feels like he's been around for much longer). And I guess a top 5 WT stage race result gives him some credentials in this discussion, as opposed to other great but unconfirmed talents like Nordhagen, Christen or Morgado.

I certainly rate Poole higher than Lenny as far as GC aspirations go. I've said it since Lenny was a junior, and he has not been able to erase my doubts yet. Like Rujano, he will break any watt record in the books, but not play a significant role for a W. Unless a random Vuelta just has a watered down field and parcours. Suffers too much on the flat, be it in an ITT or regular stage. Just like DSM, I also have my doubts about FDJ and if they are the team to take someone as far as they can go.

As far as Morgado and Jan go, just do not see it as GC riders. Would like to see more from Bisiaux and August in the high mountains next year, but they've been solid on Mont du Chat type of climbs. Paul Seixas too, but that's even further into the future.

 

[Valv.Piti]

That could be, if his main opponents are S. Yates, Carapaz, Almeida and whoever Ineos sends.

Maybe this is heat of the moment, but I'd honestly back Kuss over every one of these guys. Imagine if that guy gets to win two GTs!

Who would have thought.

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe this is heat of the moment, but I'd honestly back Kuss over every one of these guys. Imagine if that guy gets to win two GTs!

Who would have thought.

Feel like the challenge for him is to hit this shape in May.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ayuso, Rodriquez and Uijtderbroeks and most obvious choices due to their young age and already promising results. The problem with predictions of youngsters' trajectories is often extrapolating their progress for next years, which rarely turns out to be reality. From recent years only Pogacar delivered huge performances and results almost immediately after his promising GT debut. For example Ayuso didn't progress as much as I expected this year (he convincingly lost to 3 JV guys: one super-domestique, another guy far from his best for half of the race and another guy a bit limited with his own actions due to team tactics). He's still my pick due to his young age and proven GT strength though.

 

[Escarabajo]

What about looking at the Tour de L'Avenir winners and drawing a conclusion. That is very telling. Those youngsters have delivered one way or another.

 

[Pantani_lives]

What about looking at the Tour de L'Avenir winners and drawing a conclusion. That is very telling. Those youngsters have delivered one way or another.

In its early years the Tour de l'Avenir had major winners like Gimondi, Zoetemelk, LeMond and Indurain. In the whole period 1995-2009 it only produced one GT winner: Menchov. More recently it has done better again, with Quintana, Bernal and Pogacar.

*At least I'm pretty sure Roglic has featured. I'm also pretty sure Merckx hasn't.

Roglic was third in 2018, behind Bernal and Mas.

 

[DNP-Old]

What about looking at the Tour de L'Avenir winners and drawing a conclusion. That is very telling. Those youngsters have delivered one way or another.

Tour de l'Avenir is very outdated unfortunately. In this day and age the majority of riders who are top level talent skip the U23s, leaving riders like JSM to be top of the food chain, yet they would get smoked by Ayuso, Cian, Lenny and Poole comfortably.

It's a good showcase for youngsters who weren't picked up when they were 18, but it is no longer the race that would set apart the elite from the good.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

We could start doing retrospective polls. Would you have thought Remco Merckx would win a GT based on his results ahead of the 1968 season, or would you have trusted that Landa Julio Jiménez would finally pull it off one day?

 

[Netserk]

We could start doing retrospective polls. Would you have thought Remco Merckx would win a GT based on his results ahead of the 1968 season, or would you have trusted that Landa Julio Jiménez would finally pull it off one day?

Spain already has enough leaders for Beijing, they should pick a fully committed helper instead of Samu for the fifth spot.

 

[Escarabajo]

Tour de l'Avenir is very outdated unfortunately. In this day and age the majority of riders who are top level talent skip the U23s, leaving riders like JSM to be top of the food chain, yet they would get smoked by Ayuso, Cian, Lenny and Poole comfortably.

It's a good showcase for youngsters who weren't picked up when they were 18, but it is no longer the race that would set apart the elite from the good.

Cian won last year and Lenny was 8th last year. You are using the wrong names in your comparison. Ayuso and Remco would be the only ones applicable. Let's wait on Poole.