This depends on the settings the thread creator has chosen for the poll. This poll doesn‘t allow you to change votes, others do.
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Voted Ayuso, Almeida and Tiberi.
Ayuso and Almeida have been thoroughly discussed. I think with a year or two of further development, Tiberi could have finished 2nd behind Pog in this year's Giro. And that is probably enough to win a lucky Giro with a weak field. It's likely we'll have some Giri in the next five or so years where no absolute elite GT rider shows up, starting with next year (Almeida perhaps likely though).
Ayuso and Almeida have been thoroughly discussed. I think with a year or two of further development, Tiberi could have finished 2nd behind Pog in this year's Giro. And that is probably enough to win a lucky Giro with a weak field. It's likely we'll have some Giri in the next five or so years where no absolute elite GT rider shows up, starting with next year (Almeida perhaps likely though).
I really hope you're right! But I think there will be some doubling up with Tour/Vuelta in the coming years. Vingegaard for sure next year, and probably for more years to come. Pog will surely try it soon, too.
I don’t feel able to back any of those on the list. Del Toro feels more likely than any of those in the poll and whilst like many have said a lot of these riders should have a good shot at the Giro next year with the big 4 looking likely to skip it I would not feel good backing any of them with money. Another win for Hindley or Carapaz seems more feasible to me.
This is a tricky one.
As others have pointed out, much depends on how the mutants plan their schedules. Honestly, I don’t see Pogacar or Vingegaard doing the Giro in the next few years at least. However, both will compete in the Tour for many years to come, and I think at least one of them will also ride in the Vuelta regularly (and possibly both).
In this context, riding for UAE might actually be a blessing for Ayuso. On any other team, he’s too talented not to do the Tour, but at UAE, he might be pushed into doing the Giro. The same applies to Almeida, although he seems slightly less talented than Ayuso and more likely to accept a role as a domestique for Pogacar in the Tour.
Since we’re talking about the Giro, which has the weakest lineup of the three Grand Tours, Tiberi and Lipowitz seem the most likely—after Ayuso—to win one. I’ve never been fully convinced of Tiberi’s climbing ability, but he impressed me this year. Lipowitz is more of an unknown, but he seems promising.
I don’t have faith in anyone else in the poll, and in the end, I only voted for Ayuso. There’s also a new generation of riders coming up that will make things even more challenging.
As others have pointed out, much depends on how the mutants plan their schedules. Honestly, I don’t see Pogacar or Vingegaard doing the Giro in the next few years at least. However, both will compete in the Tour for many years to come, and I think at least one of them will also ride in the Vuelta regularly (and possibly both).
In this context, riding for UAE might actually be a blessing for Ayuso. On any other team, he’s too talented not to do the Tour, but at UAE, he might be pushed into doing the Giro. The same applies to Almeida, although he seems slightly less talented than Ayuso and more likely to accept a role as a domestique for Pogacar in the Tour.
Since we’re talking about the Giro, which has the weakest lineup of the three Grand Tours, Tiberi and Lipowitz seem the most likely—after Ayuso—to win one. I’ve never been fully convinced of Tiberi’s climbing ability, but he impressed me this year. Lipowitz is more of an unknown, but he seems promising.
I don’t have faith in anyone else in the poll, and in the end, I only voted for Ayuso. There’s also a new generation of riders coming up that will make things even more challenging.
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If you go back to the 20th Century, there was this guy, Miguel, he did ok even though he raced at 76kg. Of course, the Tour in 95 had over 100km of TT (prologue, TTT, 2xITT). To be fair, I don't think those days will be coming back.
To stay on poll topic, I choose 'none of the above.'
I voted for Ayuso, Tiberi and Skjelmose.
Ayuso is probably the biggest talent, but he needs to come to terms with his place in the team. Next year it would be best for him to do the Giro as leader and the Tour as a domestique. Otherwise he remains a candidate to win the Vuelta in one of the next years.
Tiberi is the big Italian hope. He looks like a plausible candidate to win a Giro without the big guns.
Skjelmose still needs to improve, but he's young and he seems dedicated, so a Vuelta seems realistic at some point.
Ayuso is probably the biggest talent, but he needs to come to terms with his place in the team. Next year it would be best for him to do the Giro as leader and the Tour as a domestique. Otherwise he remains a candidate to win the Vuelta in one of the next years.
Tiberi is the big Italian hope. He looks like a plausible candidate to win a Giro without the big guns.
Skjelmose still needs to improve, but he's young and he seems dedicated, so a Vuelta seems realistic at some point.
By far the most popular option as well. It wins every year.
It's not hard to imagine that none of them ever wins one, but as there are always some odd winners, I guess one will.
I voted Almeida, Ayuso, Lipowitz. The latter because he came late to the sport and showed promise this season, and had a very very decent first finished GT. Almeida is still pretty young, so I assume he has a good chance of getting a GT when others don't show up and he can manage to in on top form. Ayuso is stagnating, but that doesn't mean he can't still improve and he's also very young so the chances to score a "easier" GT win aren't bad.
I voted Almeida, Ayuso, Lipowitz. The latter because he came late to the sport and showed promise this season, and had a very very decent first finished GT. Almeida is still pretty young, so I assume he has a good chance of getting a GT when others don't show up and he can manage to in on top form. Ayuso is stagnating, but that doesn't mean he can't still improve and he's also very young so the chances to score a "easier" GT win aren't bad.
Doesn't that also apply to Arensman, who you brought up as someone who should have been one of the options?
I don't think this is such a big hurdle, really. If the new talents are much better than the likes of Almeida and Ayuso, they are likely to target the Tour more often than not. And the Tour seems off-limits to most guys in this poll anyway as long as Pog and Vingegaard stay at their top level. And if the new guys are not much better than the Almeidas of this world, then they're by definition not such a major challenge. You could of course argue that the new guys will all slot in between the top 2-3 and the rest, but I have a hard time believing that the average level of the top 10 or so GT riders will increase that much when Del Toro, Nordhagen, Widar, Torres etc. get going and replace some of the older guys. The level of the top mutants we have now is already such a big historical anomaly.
It definitely applies to Arensman if he continues to put on weight during GTs.
There was this guy who was a decent rider but to heavy until a teammate told him about dr EPO
On topic , hard to see if anyone can get to the level of the top two or top four atm. Very high ceiling if those riders are present
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Yes. I don't expect Arensman to ever win a GT either. But i do think he (and Jorgenson) deserves a spot in the list over certain others who are on it now.
Different times obviously, so not worthwhile to compare weights between eras. While Big Mig might have weighed a lot more than taller riders now, so did the average rider in the peloton. He was also a few centimeters shorter than Jorgenson.
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I don't really feel confident about any of the riders in the poll...
edit: I see I'm not the first to make that point in the thread. You can thank me for my fascinating contribution later.
edit: I see I'm not the first to make that point in the thread. You can thank me for my fascinating contribution later.
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What speaks against Arensman for me is that I don't think I've ever seen him accelerate in a mountain. Granted I've only gotten back to watching loads of cycling this year and haven't seen every stage he's ridden but I'm partial to riders who actually try to make things happen rather than those that just try to hang on.
Arensman's father is still fuming as we speak!
I think you're very much off here, Logic. The talent of Jorgenson and Arensman is very much not the same - Jorgenson is in another league at basically everything right now and seems flatout a lot more talented. Arensman is a nice rider, but not much more and won't likely get better results than a top-5 in a weak Giro or Vuelta.
The other thing Jorgenson has going for him (compared to Thymen) is the trajectory of his career. He could stop getting better tomorrow, but if you can make that call with any certainty you should stop watching cycling and switch to trading stocks.
Adam Yates, Blobloblo, Gee, Gall, Jorgenson > Lipowitz, Skjelmose, O'Connor, Gaudu > Dunbar, Arensman, Sivakov, Rubio
Sure, but the same goes for plenty of others. I think the times Mas has accelerated on a mountain can be counted on one hand, and most of those probably come from this Vuelta. Uijtdebroeks also can't accelerate (yet). Has O'Connor ever done an attack against decent opposition? I can only remember him trying to follow an attack just to blow himself up 200 meters further.
And again, i don't think Arensman will ever win a GT, but he has shown on more than one occasion against better opposition his GT potential, than for instance Skjelmose has, while he is less than 10 months older. He finished 6th in this year's Giro, same as last year, but he is not on the list, while Skjelmose who finished 5th in the Vuelta and failed last year in the TDF when he also wanted to ride a GC, is.
Nope.
Skjelmose's level in the Vuelta this year was at least one tier above the best that Arensman has ever shown in a GT. And the opposition that Skjelmose beat (Gaudu, Lipowitz, Landa, Sivakov) was better than what Arensman beat (Rubio, Hirt, Dunbar, Leknessund, Kämna).
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failed is kind of incorrect, he was with the best guys in the first hard stages, got injured from a crash then helped Ciccone instead of trying for some ninth place
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