Future GT Winner (Edition 2025)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Total voters
    101
  • Poll closed .
Squire

Squire

Dec 28, 2010
4,119
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AlfaLum said:
Just as my feeling that the 2005/2006 class will surpass the level at which all non aliens are riding at the moment. 😂
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I agree that the non-aliens don't seem particularly impressive at the moment. There have been periods previously where the top 1-2 riders are this far ahead of the rest as well, but not that often. So we might have an era less dominated by one or two riders coming up soon. But other than Seixas, I'm also not extremely impressed with the 2005/2006 generation. Still way too early to make any proper judgements of that, of course.
 
KZD

KZD

Feb 21, 2019
4,325
6,899
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Voted Almeida, del Toro and Seixas.

Almeida is getting closer to a GT win and the fact that he was comfortably second behind Vingegaard in this Vuelta without a perfect preparation bodes well for him. He is already 27 though, so better hurry up.

Del Toro is just so talented that I think that he will do it sooner or later. A route with more punchy finishes and less TT kilometers its what suits him best but he will probably improve his weaknesses too.

Seixas might not have been super dominant in the Tour de l'Avenir as some expected but still won it with a decent gap and he was 8th in the Dauphiné at 18, that alone makes me think that he will be the one breaking the spell for the French.

I also think that at least one of the Red Bull riders as a decent chance of winning one Grand Tour but I couldn't choose which one, for now. Onley surprised me in the Tour but I am still not fully convinced.
 
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Squire

Squire

Dec 28, 2010
4,119
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Krzysztof_O said:
Ayuso is a 3-times winner of this poll but it seems our experts stop believing in him finally.
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Yeah, it's a bit crazy that 45 people have voted for Del Toro and only 12 for Ayuso. There's only one year between them in age, and Ayuso has the whole package: Elite level climbing, elite level time-trialing, sprinting, recovery. One of the very few riders on the list you can say that about. I don't see what has changed since the previous editions of this poll. In fact, he should be even more likely to win a GT now that he doesn't have the whole team issue against him. Being selfish isn't really a negative quality when it comes to winning in cycling.
 
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scribers

scribers

Oct 30, 2023
5,256
8,089
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Squire said:
Yeah, it's a bit crazy that 45 people have voted for Del Toro and only 12 for Ayuso. There's only one year between them in age, and Ayuso has the whole package: Elite level climbing, elite level time-trialing, sprinting, recovery. One of the very few riders on the list you can say that about. I don't see what has changed since the previous editions of this poll. In fact, he should be even more likely to win a GT now that he doesn't have the whole team issue against him. Being selfish isn't really a negative quality when it comes to winning in cycling.
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Ayuso finds ways to not win. He’s certainly had his opportunities
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Squire said:
Yeah, it's a bit crazy that 45 people have voted for Del Toro and only 12 for Ayuso. There's only one year between them in age, and Ayuso has the whole package: Elite level climbing, elite level time-trialing, sprinting, recovery. One of the very few riders on the list you can say that about. I don't see what has changed since the previous editions of this poll. In fact, he should be even more likely to win a GT now that he doesn't have the whole team issue against him. Being selfish isn't really a negative quality when it comes to winning in cycling.
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His climbing is not that good, his recovery/consistency is outright bad, and he is rather fragile.

On the best team in the world he starts his season at his peak, but he quickly gets tired and is vulnerable to bad days. And then he cracks, he very rarely perseveres.

Signed by a proud Ayuso hater who also didn't vote on him last year.
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
7,849
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Squire said:
Yeah, it's a bit crazy that 45 people have voted for Del Toro and only 12 for Ayuso. There's only one year between them in age, and Ayuso has the whole package: Elite level climbing, elite level time-trialing, sprinting, recovery. One of the very few riders on the list you can say that about. I don't see what has changed since the previous editions of this poll. In fact, he should be even more likely to win a GT now that he doesn't have the whole team issue against him. Being selfish isn't really a negative quality when it comes to winning in cycling.
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This year he rode two GTs in the best performing team in the world. Sure, he had some misfortune, but no GC result in any of them, actually his only GT podium was back in 2022 (ages ago). I think he reached high level very early and stagnated. I don't expect him to be better in another team, maybe the opposite.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
53,747
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Netserk said:
His climbing is not that good, his recovery/consistency is outright bad, and he is rather fragile.

On the best team in the world he starts his season at his peak, but he quickly gets tired and is vulnerable to bad days. And then he cracks, he very rarely perseveres.

Signed by a proud Ayuso hater who also didn't vote on him last year.
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I raise you one I didn't vote for him in 2023 either.
 
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Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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I just voted for Del Toro (I like to vote in just one person) but I think Lipo is the other one able to win a GT in the future.

Del Toro will win a GT, there is zero doubt in my mind about this. He made a huge leap this year and I expect another leap (a little bit smaller) next year (a bit like Vingegaard. Huge leap in 2021 and another leap in 2022).
For me, he will be the third best GT rider in the world next year. He is probably the number one favorite to win the Giro next year IMO.
Yes, at the moment he looks more like a puncheur than a climber but he lost the Giro due to lack of tactical awareness, not because he was weaker than Yates. In fact, he was clearly better than Yates in almost every stage in the Giro.

Lipo - He has a good TT and he is very strong in the high mountains. He is also a "late bloomer" (in this era) IMO and will probably reach his best level between 2026-2029.

IMO (unfortunately) Almeida will never win a GT. He gets sick very easily, has too many limitations and he probably could win the Giro 2026 if both Del Toro and Vingegaard weren't there but I believe one of them will be there.

Seixas? Please, he is just 19. Wasn't dominant in Avenir. Let him improve in the high mountains first. Remco was the best junior ever and will not sniff a Tour (despite being a GT winner). I will wait 2 more years.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
53,747
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Peyroteo94 said:
I just voted for Del Toro (I like to vote in just one person) but I think Lipo is the other one able to win a GT in the future.

Del Toro will win a GT, there is zero doubt in my mind about this. He made a huge leap this year and I expect another leap (a little bit smaller) next year (a bit like Vingegaard. Huge leap in 2021 and another leap in 2022).
For me, he will be the third best GT rider in the world next year. He is probably the number one favorite to win the Giro next year IMO.
Yes, at the moment he looks more like a puncheur than a climber but he lost the Giro due to lack of tactical awareness, not because he was weaker than Yates. In fact, he was clearly better than Yates in almost every stage in the Giro.

Lipo - He has a good TT and he is very strong in the high mountains. He is also a "late bloomer" (in this era) IMO and will probably reach his best level between 2026-2029.

IMO (unfortunately) Almeida will never win a GT. He gets sick very easily, has too many limitations and he probably could win the Giro 2026 if both Del Toro and Vingegaard weren't there but I believe one of them will be there.

Seixas? Please, he is just 19. Wasn't dominant in Avenir. Let him improve in the high mountains first. Remco was the best junior ever and will not sniff a Tour (despite being a GT winner). I will wait 2 more years.
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Seixas to me also just has hopium for French fans.

I agree on Almeida though. I voted on him this time, but I don't think he's a sure bet at all, and I don't think he has until he's 35 to do it. I think he needs to get one pretty quickly.
 
Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
46,737
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The best GT debut this century is 3rd (Rujano, Pogi, Ayuso), and none of them were all that close to winning it. So I usually don't think it makes sense to consider riders who hasn't ridden a GT yet.

Neither Pogi nor Ayuso were included in any polls before they got on a podium, and while Evenepoel made his poll debut before his GT debut, that was after his 2nd year on the WT. And he didn't challenge the following year.

I think Avenir masked how great Seixas is, and if he rides the Vuelta next year I think he could plausibly get on the podium. But I'd be shocked if he wins a GT next year, so much so that I think it'd be more sensible to wait with considering him until after next season.
 
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Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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Netserk said:
The best GT debut this century is 3rd (Rujano, Pogi, Ayuso), and none of them were all that close to winning it. So I usually don't think it makes sense to consider riders who hasn't ridden a GT yet.

Neither Pogi nor Ayuso were included in any polls before they got on a podium, and while Evenepoel made his poll debut before his GT debut, that was after his 2nd year on the WT. And he didn't challenge the following year.

I think Avenir masked how great Seixas is, and if he rides the Vuelta next year I think he could plausibly get on the podium. But I'd be shocked if he wins a GT next year, so much so that I think it'd be more sensible to wait with considering him until after next season.
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No love for Andy?
 
A

AlfaLum

Mar 13, 2021
1,117
1,638
7,680
Netserk said:
The best GT debut this century is 3rd (Rujano, Pogi, Ayuso), and none of them were all that close to winning it. So I usually don't think it makes sense to consider riders who hasn't ridden a GT yet.

Neither Pogi nor Ayuso were included in any polls before they got on a podium, and while Evenepoel made his poll debut before his GT debut, that was after his 2nd year on the WT. And he didn't challenge the following year.

I think Avenir masked how great Seixas is, and if he rides the Vuelta next year I think he could plausibly get on the podium. But I'd be shocked if he wins a GT next year, so much so that I think it'd be more sensible to wait with considering him until after next season.
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Its a future GT winner poll right? Not a next year GT winner poll?
 
A

AlfaLum

Mar 13, 2021
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Netserk said:
Yes, but then you could include Widar and Nordhagen as well. And Noval.

Why not wait a bit before considering them, there's no rush.
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I think it is ok to include them of they are part of the say 6-8 most likely GT winners that have not won one yet.

With Nordhagen he is not near that category for me. Widar is also not in that category yet. But Seixas is in my opinion so I think it is fair to include him in the poll already. Even though he might not really contend for a win yet the next 2-3 seasons.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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AlfaLum said:
I think it is ok to include them of they are part of the say 6-8 most likely GT winners that have not won one yet.

With Nordhagen he is not near that category for me. Widar is also not in that category yet. But Seixas is in my opinion so I think it is fair to include him in the poll already. Even though he might not really contend for a win yet the next 2-3 seasons.
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I think Nordhagen is much more likely to win a GT than Gall is. If we wait for more than a decade.

And I'd rather bet on Noval than Ayuso.
 
Devil's Elbow

Devil's Elbow

Sep 20, 2017
12,333
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Netserk said:
Yes, but then you could include Widar and Nordhagen as well. And Noval.

Why not wait a bit before considering them, there's no rush.
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I don't think any of those are remotely equivalent to Seixas. Nordhagen is 20 months older and was comfortably outperformed by Seixas throughout the season. Widar is 10 months older, was also outperformed this year (although not to the same extent) and is naturally vulnerable in time trials. Noval is a first-year junior, not a first-year U23 like Seixas.

And even setting that aside, I don't get why you wouldn't want to so much as consider someone who's having the best-ever first-year U23 (by age) season in terms of GC results.
 
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