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Generational analysis 2013

I have made a generational analysis of this era of cycling, throught the 2013 CQR ranking best 500 riders.

You can see this grafic in it, and I have reached some conclusions:

2013.jpg


http://patrimoniociclista.blogspot.com.es/2013/10/analisis-generacional-golden-years.html


You have the option to read it in english in a bad translation, but I think enpugh to read the conclusions.

You can see as well a list of the forst 500 CQR riders sorted by age
 
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Taxus4a said:
I have made a generational analysis of this era of cycling, throught the 2013 CQR ranking best 500 riders.

You can see this grafic in it, and I have reached some conclusions:

2013.jpg


http://patrimoniociclista.blogspot.com.es/2013/10/analisis-generacional-golden-years.html


You have the option to read it in english in a bad translation, but I think enpugh to read the conclusions.

You can see as well a list of the forst 500 CQR riders sorted by age

From this graph you can conclude that people aged 27-31 got the most CQR points in 2013. So people's estimates that athletes peak between these ages is supported. It could be that DS' expectations of this peak means they are more likely to pick a rider as team leader though. I don't think you can attribute it to a generation of rider though as age is too big a confounder.
 
theyoungest said:
Interesting graph. How does it look if it's normalized versus the number of riders per category? Because then the 41-year-olds score abnormally high ;)

Well, it takes only the first 500 riders in the CQR. Horner and Rebellin are among them, they are lucky to be leaders in theirs teams, in that ranking is difficult to score if you are a domestique (Voigt for example has the same age but is not inside) I talk about that in the article... but it is in spanish.

But is those in that years with just a few riders, just one rider with a good season make the difference, in the others years that is different...

To sum up, what I mean is that if would be the first 1000 riders despite 500, it would affetc the graph, but it would be affet to 1971 to be less prominent
 
del1962 said:
Perhaps it would be best to use top ten in each year group, I think divided by the number of riders in each group would be unsatifactory as the better riders will retire later.

For me the analysys must be this way, that way is useless to take some conclusions, the main objetive for me to analyze if 85, 86, and 87, were so exceptional as I predictet 6 years ago in an spanish forum... and my conclusion is that yes, but just 85, and 86,... 87 is a good year more...and I have followed this more years with similar graph...even I made not the graph I overcallulate it in my mind looking the CQR...

If you take the best 10 riders in one year, you are unfair comparing a year vs another...the most fair is to take everybody, all the pro riders, but anyway 500 riders is a lot...with the firts 100 rides you can take similar conclusions.

:)
 
theyoungest said:
Or there are simply more riders of that age. That's why this graph isn't entirely reflective of the strength per age group, I think.

In the top 100 their are more riders in these groups with higher points than any other, which is not really a suprise as generally athletes reach their physical peak in there mid to late twenties.
 
Pentacycle said:
Clearly 27/28 is the new peak age.

But that is becouse that generation, 85 and 86, as I predicted 6 years ago, were excepcional in good riders...nor becouse now riders get his best with that age... thay are going to improve, you will see.

Nibali is now better than two years ago, that is a fact.
Valverde, Purito, Cancellara, are in their best around 30-33 años, and riders with 35-36 as Evans or basso could perform similar at his best, or even riders with more than 40.

It is not a question of peak, it is a question that 85 and 86, are the golden boys, the golden generation, the most prolific in a long time
, maybe in history. They peak with 25 years old, the same that peak now with 27, the same that will peak with 32, becouse they are exceptionals...90 and 89 are really good and prolofic as well, so we will see...
 
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theyoungest said:
Or there are simply more riders of that age. That's why this graph isn't entirely reflective of the strength per age group, I think.

1986 has 55 riders, and 1983 has 29. Indeed it's also caused by a difference in overall talent per generation. Nibali's probably the only top rider from '83 and '84.
 
Taxus4a said:
But that is becouse that generation, 85 and 86, as I predicted 6 years ago, were excepcional in good riders...nor becouse now riders get his best with that age... thay are going to improve, you will see.

Nibali is now better than two years ago, that is a fact.
Valverde, Purito, Cancellara, are in their best around 30-33 años, and riders with 35-36 as Evans or basso could perform similar at his best, or even riders with more than 40.

It is not a question of peak, it is a question that 85 and 86, are the golden boys, the golden generation, the most prolific in a long time
, maybe in history. They peak with 25 years old, the same that peak now with 27, the same that will peak with 32, becouse they are exceptionals...90 and 89 are really good and prolofic as well, so we will see...
The golden generation, which is under severe threat of the next golden generation of 1990/1991, with probably more talent in it. I.e. these golden generations come in waves.

And the biggest talent from your golden generation, Chris Froome, wasn't even all that 'golden' when he was at the age that guys like Sagan or Quintana are now. So maybe there's a hidden super talent in that generation as well.
 
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Perhaps the relative absence of current top riders born in 83/84 makes 85/86 look very talented. It's just that many riders 'disappeared' after looking very promising, either because of bad luck or clinic related issues. Dekker, Ricco, Soler, Anton, Breschel, Brajkovic, LLS, Maaskant, Marcato, Van den Broeck, Lloyd, Visconti, Lofkvist have been scoring far less points than they did in the past or they quit the sport. Some of these guys were supposed to be among the golden generation of 83-4-5-6.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
i'm in my physical peak? holy crap... doesn't feel like it

You peaked way too early, already in 2004 you were among the best MTB riders in the world, but I've rarely seen you on the result sheets over the past seasons.
 
The Gaussian function I put in purple is the expected acording to the peak now... people is peaking with 28, 29, 30, 31 years old, nothing have change... as I said in the conclusion of the article, people now is more long-lived, but as well star before...

when you take the first 500 riders you are taking people with less than 150 points, and that is not very difficul to get. I could get more people but the conlcusion would be the same and it is more work.

I will do this next season and we could compare.

I used just to count how many born in 85, 86 and 87 were in the first 100 CQR riders and sometimes 200 or more... I was always surprising for the result for 3 years... but I was wrong, I had to chose just 85 and 86 and I will be more amazed.
 
theyoungest said:
Or there are simply more riders of that age. That's why this graph isn't entirely reflective of the strength per age group, I think.

But wouldn't more riders of a certain age in the top 500 riders be exactly that, reflective of the strength of their age group? Or even more riders of that age in the professional peloton?
 
Pentacycle said:
Perhaps the relative absence of current top riders born in 83/84 makes 85/86 look very talented. It's just that many riders 'disappeared' after looking very promising, either because of bad luck or clinic related issues. Dekker, Ricco, Soler, Anton, Breschel, Brajkovic, LLS, Maaskant, Marcato, Van den Broeck, Lloyd, Visconti, Lofkvist have been scoring far less points than they did in the past or they quit the sport. Some of these guys were supposed to be among the golden generation of 83-4-5-6.

That have happens as well with the golden boys: Kreuziger and Gesink, less than promissing, even they are up there. Andy, for the moment quite out...
L Hotelerrie, where is he??
Di Gregorio?.. he has his problems...
EBH, he was more promising
Boom, he is good but we looked at him as we look now to Mohoric...Lee augustyn, he will come back, but he is out in that stadistic: Diego Milan, Arkaitz Duran, Jose Joaquim Rojas, Raffa Chitiou, Ignatiev, Capelli, Cornu...even some people though that Capecchi was the new Pantani...or Intxausti the new Mayo, etc...the difference is that this generation, has so many riders that it doesnt matter if some are left in the way..

 
When I started with this in a forum, in 2008, I put all this names for the 85-86-87... I add later more names...(the names that has not writted more than the name) Now we must put away 87, becouse is a good year more, not exceptional... but the list of names show that some people confirm, some people are better that was expected and some people are out... what is normal always... but if you have 150 riders to choose, and 50 are really primising, it is impossible to fail as generation...(87 needed to confirm in his best way all their names to be exceptional, so, yes, 87 could fail and it has good names but it is similar to 84, 88, 89,...)

I will put the rest of the list in other post, I am not allowed in this, is too long

ANDY SCHLECK, Luxemburgo, CSC, (10/06/1985) Uno de los más aventajados, con un segundo puesto en el Giro de Italia 2007, entre otras muchas cosas destacables. Escalador, vueltómano, clasicómano,...

ROBERT GESINK, Holanda, Rabobank,(31/05/1986 ). Gran escalador. Con un buen palmarés en aficionado, ha brillado ya en California, Paris Niza o Dauphiné.

ROMAN KREUZIGER, Chequia, Liquigás. (06/05/1986). Ya ha ganado la Vuelta a Suiza. Es un potente contrarelojista que va muy bien en montaña.

RIGOBERTO URAN, Colombia, Caisse d'Epargne (26/01/1987). Corredor completo, segundo de la Volta Cataluña con 21 años y etapa y noveno en la general de suiza con 20 años.
TONY MARTIN.Alemania, High Road (23/04/1985). Principalmente un grancontrarelojista, aunque fue segundo en el Tour del Porvenir, con lo quedemuestra ser un corredor muy completo.
JAKOB D. FUGLSANG. Dinamarca (22-03-1985) . Nacido enSuiza, vivió sus primeros años en Francia y ahora en Italia. Ha sidocampeón del mundo sub 23 en MTB. Este 2009, en carretera, ha sido sextoen la general de Cataluña y Dauphiné, siendo uno de los más destacadosen la montaña en ésta última. Ha ganado la general del Tour deEslovenia. En su equipo le consideran un ganador de Tour. Granescalador, se defiende bien contra el crono.

LARS BOOM. Holanda, Rabobank Continental (30/12/1985). Campeón del mundo sub 23 en contrareloj y Campeón del mundo de ciclo cross

BAUKE MOLLEMA, Holanda, Rabobank (26-11-1986). Gran escalador. Destaca en su palmarés el Tour del Porvenir 2007.

SIMON SPILAK, Eslovenia, Lampre (23/06/1986). Corredor todoterreno, ha brillado ya tanto en el pavé de Flandes, como en la Paris Niza, entre otras cosas.

MARK CAVENDISH. Gran Bretaña, High Road (21/05/ 1985) Considerado ya como uno de los mejores esprinters puros del mundo, con multitud de triunfos, incluso en el Giro, y muy destacado en la pista.

GERALD CIOLEK. Alemania, High Road (19/09/ 1986). Esprinter versatil, con un dilatado palmarés ya.

EDVALD BOASSON HAGEN. Noruega, High Road (17/05/ 1987). Corredor bastante completo, pero principalmente sprinter y contrarelojista.

TIAGO MACHADO. Portugal. Boavista. (18/10/1985). Uno de los mejores corredores Portugeses con sólo 22 años.

RUI COSTA Portugal. Benfica.(5/10/86). Tiene buenos puestos en el calendario continental.

EROS CAPECCHI. Italia, Saunier Duval (13/06/1986). Principalmente escalador. Acostumbrado a exhibiciones en juveniles. Ya ha ganado la Bicicleta Vasca.

SEBASTIAN LANGEVELD. Holanda, Rabobank (17/01/1985) Niño de Oro por apenas 17 días, su rendimiento en las Clásicas del Norte y en la Milan-San Remo como gregario de Freire ha sido expectacular éste año.

BEÑAT INTXAUSTI. España, Saunier Duval ( 20/03/1986). Gran escalador que ha demostrado un gran nivel en aficionados.

ARKAITZ DURAN. España, Saunier Duval (18/05/1986). Corredor completo, pasó directamente de juveniles a profesionales. Con 19 años ya participó en pruebas del nivel de la Lieja.

MIJAIL IGNATIEV.Rusia, Tinkoff (07/05/1985). Excelente rodador. Fue campeón del mundocontrareloj sub 23 en el 2005, y segundo tras Boom el siguiente año.Varias victorias como profesional.

IGNATAS KONOVALOVAS Lituania, Credit Agricole (08/12/1986). Destaca sobre todo como contrarelojista, habiendo sido campeón de la especialidad de su pais, y habiendo brillado ya en otras carreras, entre ellas el Tour del Porvenir.
 
PIERRE ROLLAND. Francia, Credit Agricole (10/10/1986). Escalador. Dos etapas como profesional. Ganador de la Montaña de Dauphiné 2008.

REMY DI GREGORIO. Francia, Française de Jeux. (31/07/85). Escalador. Décimo en el Tour del Mediterráneo, entre otras actuaciones.


BRANISLAU SAMOILAU. Bielorusia (25/05/1985). Ha brillado en varias generales, entre ellas un 22 puesto en el Giro del 2007 o tercero del Giro del Lazio.

MATTHEW GOSS. Tasmania (Australia), Team CSC (05/11/1986). Ha sido campeón del mundo de pista (supongo de su categoria). Tercero en la Kuurne 2008 ganando el sprint a Boonen.

FABIO DUARTE. Colombia. Colombia es Pasión (11/06/1986). Se le considera una gran promesa en su pais. Es un ciclista completo.

DANIEL MARTIN. Irlanda. Slipstream (20/08/1986). Atesora buenas actuaciones como amateur, destacando un segundo puesto en la general de Aosta y como profesional ha gando la general de la Ruta del Sur por delante de Moreau

JACKSON RODRIGUEZ. Venezuela. Diguigiovanni. (25/02/1985) Con buenas actuaciones en America, en su paso a Europa ya ha logrado alguna victoria como profesional. Ciclista cazaetapas y escalador.

JURGEN ROELANDTS. Bélgica. Silence-Lotto (02/07/1985). Segundo en Nokere Koerse y Campeón Nacional de ruta belga 2008.

GREG VAN AVERMAET. Bélgica. Silence-Lotto (17/05/1985). Toda una sensacion en las clásicas belgas, octavo en el Tour de Flandes 2008.

REIN TAARAMÄE Estonia. Cofidis. (24/04/1987). Ha destacado en diferentes pruebas, principalmente contra el crono.

ALEXANDRE PLIUSCHIN. Moldavia. AG2R. (13/01/1987). Tiene varios titulos y victorias importantes en pruebas sub 19 y sub 23 tanto en crono, como en pavé, como en carretera normal.
RICHIE PORTE Australia. Saxo Bank. 85
JONATHAN CASTROVIEJO

JOSE JOAQUIN ROJAS. España. Caisse D Epargne. (08/06/1985) Principalmente esprinter. Ya tiene victorias como profesional.
DIEGO MILAN. España, Aqua e Sapone (10/ 07/ 1985). Esprinter versatil y potencial clasicómano.


PETER VELITS Eslovaquia. Team Milram. (21/02/1985). En principio clasícomano. Su mayor logro es ser Campeón del mundo sub 23 en ruta en 2007.

DOMINIQUE CORNU Bélgica. Silence Lotto (10 /10 /1985). Campeón del mundo en crono sub 23.También va bien en el pavé, ha ganado la Het Volk sub 23.

DARIO CATALDO Italia. Liquigas. (17/03/1985). Considerado otro joven talento, ha ganado el Baby Giro en el 2006, así como 2 etapas en el Tour del Porvenir 2007.

DMYTRO GRABOVSKYY. (tb conocido como Dmitry Grabovskiy ) Ucrania. Quick Step. (30/09/1985). Campeón del mundo sub 23 en 2005 (Madrid). Muy precoz, su progresión se ha visto cortada por un grave accidente de trafico en 2007. Ha vuelto a competir, pero de momento a otro nivel

JEROME COPPEL Francia. Française des Jeux. (06/08/1986).
Contrarelojista. Dos veces medalla de bronce en campeonatos mundiales sub 23. Ganador de la general del circuito de las Ardennas 2007.

GIANNI MERSMAN. Belgica. Françoise des Jeux.(05/12/1985). Posee victorias de etapa como profesional, tanto en Georgia como en Austria, y otros puestos de honor en carreras menores.

KEVIN SEELDRAYERS Belgica. Quick steep. (12/09/1986). No tiene resultados destacables como profesional, salvo un quinto puesto en la general del Tour de Georgia, pero ha demostrado su clase escaladora, con un potente ataque en una de las primeras etapas del Giro 2008, así como finalizando 20 en la etapa del Mortirolo.

IVAN ROVNY Rusia. Tinkoff. (30/09/1987). Escalador sobre todo. Ganador de una etapa del Tour del Porvenir 2007, son sólo 19 años.
ERMANNO CAPELLI.Italia. Saunier Duval. (09/05/1985). Se le considera una gran promesaen Italia, si bien no ha hecho nada destacado en su primer año deprofesional. Ciclista completo.
SERGIO LUIS HENAO.Colombia. Colombia es Pasión (10 /12/1987). Gran juventud, pero ya haganado el Clásico Banfoandes 2007 entre otras muchas cosas.

ANDREY AMADOR. Costa Rica. Lizarte. (29/08/1986). Entre otras cosas ha gando como aficionado la Vuelta al Bidasoa

STEVEN COZZA. EEUU, Slipstream. (03/03/85) Atesora un gran número de actuaciones destacables en su corta carrera profesional.

DENIS GALIMZYANOV Rusia. Katyusha. (07/03/1987) Posee 15 victorias (fuera de profesionales)

MICHAEL SCHÄR Suiza. Astana ( 29/09/1986). Buen contrarelojista, en principio.

JHON-LEE AUGUSTIN República Sudafricana. Barlowold. (10/08/86) Excelente escalador. Otro del que se hablan maravillan desde niño, en su paso a profesionales está causando una gran sensación, recientemente pasó la Bonette-Restefond en primer lugar en el Tour.
Ha sido tercero en la Vuelta Asturias 2007.

CHRISTOPHER FROOME Kenia. Barlowold. (20/05/1985) Este año fue segundo en el Giro del Cabo y hoy mismo ha entrado el 31 en Alp D Huez, la etapa más selectiva del Tour.


RAFAI CHTIOUI Tunez. Doha Team. (26/01/1986) Venció la crono del Tour del Porvenir 2007 a hombres como Tony Martín o Boasson Hagen.
Fue subcampeón del mundo junior en Verona 2004, vencido al esprint por Kreuziger. Tercero fue Spilak.

GATIS SMUKULIS Letonia. AG2R. (15/04/1987). Trayectoria llena de victorias, en 2005 fue el mejor corredor junior del mundo.

MARCOS GARCIA. España (Madrid). Supermercados Froiz/Karpin Galicia. ( 1987? ) Ganador de la Bira 2008 entre otras victorias como aficionado. Escalador.
TANEL KANGERT.Estonia,AG2R. (11/03/1987). Con su juventud ya ha estado cerca de los mejores enla Vuelta a Suiza entre otras cosas destacadas.


ANDERS LUND Dinamarca. Team CSC. (14/02/1985) . Entre otros titulos ha sido Campeón del mundo en ruta sub 19.

ANDRE STEENSENDinamarca. Team CSC. (12/08/1987) Pasado a Pros con 20 años por nadamenos que el CSC algo querrá decir. Ha destacado en junior, y terceroen el Porvenir del 2007, tras Mollema y Tony Martin, mayores que él.

CLEMENT l'HOTELLERIE.Francia. Skill Shimano. (09/03/1986). Principalmente escalador. Ha sidosegundo en Andalucia y en una etapa de Paris-Niza éste año.

PETER STETINA.USA. Slipstream. (08/08/1987). En 2008, campeón USA sub 23 contra el crono y segundo en al ruta. Tour Porvenir 2008: (De momento lider)

ENRICO ZEN. Italia. (02/02/1986).

FRANCESCO GINANNI Italia. Serramenti. (06/10/1985). Ganador como profesional de los 3 Valles Varesinos, el GP de Industria y el Giro del Véneto.

JAN BAKELANTS Bélgica (14 /02/ 1986). Ganador del Tour del Porvenir 2008
CYRIL GAUTIER Francia.BRETAGNE-ARMOR (26/09/1987) Sexto en ruta sub 23 en Varese 2008, fue uno de los más fuertes de la carrera. Ha tenido buenos resultados en algunas carreras profesionales, aunque es aún aficionado.
VALERIO AGNOLI. Italia. Liquigas. (06/01/1985 ). Buen papel como gregario en Liquigas, aunque no tiene un gran palamarés y no parece que vaya a destacar al ser de los más mayores. En 2009 destaca su tercer puesto en el memorial Marco Pantani.
ARTEM OVECHKIN Rusia . Kathusa. 11/07/1986
JOSE HERRADA
PEDRO MERINO
JULIEN EL FARES
JOANN OFFREDO Francia. F. de Jeux (12 /11/ 1986). Ha demostrado ser un buen clasicómano, en las piedras, San Remo,...
THOMAS PETERSON. USA. Garmin. (24/12/1986). Buen escalador, ganador de etapa en el Tour de California 2009.
BRICE FELLIU. Francia. Buen escalador, ganador de etapa en el Tour de Francia 2009
GERAINT THOMAS
BOARO Manuele
MARCEL WYSS
STEVEN KRUIJSWIJK
KISERLOVSKI Robert
HIVERT Jonathan
JOS VAN ENDEM
STORTONI Simone
LEWIS Craig
REUS Kai
CLARKE Simon
BODNAR Maciej
VANENDERT Jelle
POELS Wout
ROELS Dominik
ANTUÑA Andres
BOLE Grega
PINEAU Cédric
ROUX Anthony
DE GENDT Thomas
KREDER Michel
FRANK Mathias
GATTO Oscar
HERMANS Ben
MODOLO Sacha
KRISTOFF Alexander
DELAGE Mickael
SWIFT Ben
VELITS Martin
MALACARNE Davide
KOREN Kristjan
FROHLINGER Johannes
RUIJGH Rob (Holanda, Vancansoleil en 2011)
BUSCHE Matthew
GAUDIN Damien
...
 
The Hitch said:
Wtf bull**** is this 1985.the golden generation in history.

Look at 1970-71 Italians alone is twice as good even before we consider other nationalities. 1990 is also already better.

I think you didnt read the article... first becouse the best year is 86, and I said, 85 and 86, two years in a row are exceptionals, not good, exceptional, but yes, as well 90 is exceptional, and even 89.

All of them are quite above the Gauss bell line, but to aseverate 90 is better, we need to wait more years... so far the data said they are similar, not better.
 

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