Gilbert and the Tour

[mombus]

I feel he's not riding the Tour this year. Why is this? What is he waiting for. Why do the Vuelta again? Is he afraid of Andy after Liege in 09? What is going on??

 

[Barrus]

I feel he's not riding the Tour this year. Why is this? What is he waiting for. Why do the Vuelta again? Is he afraid of Andy after Liege in 09? What is going on??

What does he have to gain? Most often there are few if any stages that cater to his strengths, it would also mean that he cannot peak both at the spring classics and the fall classics and would need to chose just one of those. However if he does the Vuelta there are at least some stages catered to him, which he could well win and he is in form for the the races at the end of the season, so there is no upside for him in racing the tour.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Gilbert always does this. Build up in the early season, peak for the Ardennes, then take a break. Build up to the Worlds and the late-season Classics like Lombardia, Paris-Tours and Emilia.

Gilbert is simply not a GT contention guy. Doing the Vuelta fits in with preparation for his season's goals (Worlds, Lombardia). Doing the Tour fits in with, well, nothing that's of any real consequence to Gilbert.

 

[red_flanders]

One of the few guys who can climb a bit, gets some top results and doesn't think he can turn it into a Tour win or place.

Refreshing.

 

[theyoungest]

I think he said today that he will be riding the Tour? At least, he's seriously considering it. There are some tailor made finishes for him in the first week.

 

[Arnout]

I thought him riding the Tour was already a certainty.

 

[Mellow Velo]

A pity, if Gilbert is seduced by the Mont des Alouettes and the Mûr-de-Bretagne Tour finishes.
He has got great results these past couple of seasons by ignoring the big one and riding the races that gave him his top form when it was needed.
It will be almost impossible to have both a successful Spring and Autumn campaign, if he rides through July.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I feel he's not riding the Tour this year. Why is this? What is he waiting for. Why do the Vuelta again? Is he afraid of Andy after Liege in 09? What is going on??

because he wants to become world champion, then one shoudl ride vuelta and not the tour

 

[luckyboy]

Gilbert always does this. Build up in the early season, peak for the Ardennes, then take a break. Build up to the Worlds and the late-season Classics like Lombardia, Paris-Tours and Emilia.

Gilbert is simply not a GT contention guy. Doing the Vuelta fits in with preparation for his season's goals (Worlds, Lombardia). Doing the Tour fits in with, well, nothing that's of any real consequence to Gilbert.

If he is doing the Tour this year, at least he won't be missing much at the Worlds.

Basically its possible Tour stage wins vs possible Lombardia + smaller classics.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yes, he's afraid of Andy and that's why he finished in front of him in LBL this year.

lol.

I think he should do the Tour this year and I was under the impression that he was going.

It's been since 2007 since a Belgian won a stage there? Or 2008 I think.

 

[roundabout]

Unless Gilbert is superhuman fall classics will be interesting again.

 

[taiwan]

If it wouldn't affect his spring, then the Tour could be worth riding. Was it worth Sylvain Chavanel riding the Tour this year? He has nothing to prove in Lombardy, despite it being a monument, and this Danish Worlds is generally thought to be even more sprinter friendly than the 2010 Worlds, which ended in a small group sprint. IMO he should go for L-B-L, then ride the Tour.

Having said that, there's Van Den Boeck to accomodate as well.

 

[ingsve]

If it wouldn't affect his spring, then the Tour could be worth riding. Was it worth Sylvain Chavanel riding the Tour this year? He has nothing to prove in Lombardy, despite it being a monument, and this Danish Worlds is generally thought to be even more sprinter friendly than the 2010 Worlds, which ended in a small group sprint. IMO he should go for L-B-L, then ride the Tour.

Having said that, there's Van Den Boeck to accomodate as well.

Well, Gilbert wouldn't be a bad domestique for Van Den Broeck so I would say that itself is a reason for Omega Pharma to want to have Gilbert at the Tour of he can find himself in the position of helping another leader.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well, Gilbert wouldn't be a bad domestique for Van Den Broeck so I would say that itself is a reason for Omega Pharma to want to have Gilbert at the Tour of he can find himself in the position of helping another leader.

But at the same time, it's in Lotto's interest to let Gilbert race whatever he wants so as to avoid annoying him, in case he wants to move teams.

 

[heresjason]

because he wants to become world champion, then one shoudl ride vuelta and not the tour

Because the last 2 world Champs have not aimed at July have they......

 

[mombus]

Van den Broeck is another issue. He should get a stage win this year. So that takes care of the Belgian problem. Gilbert maybe not 'want' to do the tour this year, but he absolutely should. He is young, but not too young. He is healthy. And he has proved himself time and time again in classics. How does he know he'll be lucky enough to be in such a position ever again. BTW, are Adam Blythe and Greiple going to France?

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Greipel is going to the Tour without any doubt. And Gilbert can lose more than he can win at Le Grand Boucle. If he fails to deliver at the right stages he failed to do what he's best at, winning heavy hilly stages.
And it might also affect his late-season peak.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I wouldn't be surprised if Greipel is; never getting the opportunity to ride the big races was his gripe with HTC, and if the Tour doesn't go under the heading of 'big races' I don't know what does.

Van den Broeck will probably not win a stage unless his GC goes awry. There are still no time bonuses in the Tour, so you'll continue to see GC-irrelevant breakaways take many mountain stages (like Riblon, Voeckler, Fedrigo, Fedrigo, Casar, Sánchez, Feillu and maybe Astarloza in the last 2 Tours), and in those where they don't, I'd expect somebody else to out-climb Jürgen.

 

[rzombie1988]

I'm expecting a pretty good tour for JvdB this year. He's improved just about every year with 2010 being his best(he almost doubled his CQ) and he may have an outside shot at the podium if luck is in his favor. I'm really excited for the battle for 2nd/3rd this year as it should be a good one.

 

[Mambo95]

Why wouldn't he want to do the Tour at least a few times?
Most of the races in the rest of the season that he wants to win are won by riders who were at the Tour that season.
I'm sure he'd love to add a Tour stage or two to his palamares and wear yellow for a few days.

And what sportsman wants to miss the biggest event in the calender all the time?

He doesn't have to peak for it. He can still make his presence felt and help his teammates.

 

[The Hitch]

Van den Broeck is another issue. He should get a stage win this year.

Should he?

2008 Tour

1 Carlos Sastre
2 Cadel Evans
3 Bernhard Kohl
4 Denis Menchov
5 Christian Vandevelde
6 Fränk Schleck
7 Samuel Sánchez
8 Kim Kirchen
9 Alejandro Valverde
10 Tadej Valjavec

2009 Tour
1 Alberto Contador
2 Andy Schleck ″
3 Lance Armstrong
4 Bradley Wiggins
5 Fränk Schleck
6 Andreas Klöden ″
7 Vincenzo Nibali
8 Christian Vande Velde
9 Roman Kreuziger
10 Christophe Le Mével


1 Alberto Contador
2 Andy Schleck
3 Denis Menchov
4 Samuel Sánchez
5 Jurgen Van Den Broeck
6 Robert Gesink
7 Ryder Hesjedal
8 Joaquim Rodríguez
9 Roman Kreuziger
10 Chris Horner

In red are the riders in this years top 10 who won a stage.

From the contenders it seems usualy about 2 win a stage, and 1 of them is right right at the top (Schleck, Contador, Sastre), and VDB is certainatly not one of those.

 

[Matthijs]

Because the last 2 world Champs have not aimed at July have they......

Hushovd was barely back from a collarbone and just riding into form well, he won the Arenberg etappe, but in his sprints he clearly wasn't top. Not anywhere near the 2nd best after cavendish he was in 2009, not even the 4d best after Cav, Pettachi and Farrarn if I'm right.

Evans 2009 f**d up his Tour, did not really compete for GC or any stages and got back on form at a good Vuelta.

Gilbert talked about his changes in the first week. Is riding the first week and then quit a serious option? It will not affect his fall that much I guess?? the only problem is he really needs to be in his best shape to win a Tour stage.

Or he becomes like Museeuw 2nd half of the 90's. Trying every year half at the tour (not winning much) and still compete the one days world cup/all the classics at top level.

 

[Matthijs]

Should he?

2008 Tour

1 Carlos Sastre
2 Cadel Evans
3 Bernhard Kohl
4 Denis Menchov
5 Christian Vandevelde
6 Fränk Schleck
7 Samuel Sánchez
8 Kim Kirchen
9 Alejandro Valverde
10 Tadej Valjavec

2009 Tour
1 Alberto Contador
2 Andy Schleck ″
3 Lance Armstrong
4 Bradley Wiggins
5 Fränk Schleck
6 Andreas Klöden ″
7 Vincenzo Nibali
8 Christian Vande Velde
9 Roman Kreuziger
10 Christophe Le Mével


1 Alberto Contador
2 Andy Schleck
3 Denis Menchov
4 Samuel Sánchez
5 Jurgen Van Den Broeck
6 Robert Gesink
7 Ryder Hesjedal
8 Joaquim Rodríguez
9 Roman Kreuziger
10 Chris Horner

In red are the riders in this years top 10 who won a stage.

From the contenders it seems usualy about 2 win a stage, and 1 of them is right right at the top (Schleck, Contador, Sastre), and VDB is certainatly not one of those.

yes, he should. Thank you for the nice graph, but VDB should really win at least a mountain stage at a minor stage race (Pais Vasco, PN, Romandie, Suisse or something in the smaller Italian or spanish races). So he can be victorious for once, even Gesink sometimes wins
Like this years tour is very important for him believing in himself, he finally needs a real win to believe in him as a champion!

 

[The Hitch]

yes, he should. Thank you for the nice graph, but VDB should really win at least a mountain stage at a minor stage race (Pais Vasco, PN, Romandie, Suisse or something in the smaller Italian or spanish races). So he can be victorious for once, even Gesink sometimes wins
Like this years tour is very important for him believing in himself, he finally needs a real win to believe in him as a champion!

At least i gave you a "graph" showing why i dont think he will win a stage. All your conterargument says is that it would be nice if he did. Great argument there

As LS pointed out the reason for so few contenders winning stages is they dont have time bonuses, so no need to chase the break.

If you look at the Pyranees stages 3 were won by a break, only Tourmalet went to a gc guy. And on those gc stages, there are several far superior guys to Jurgen who are going to be going 100% - Schleck, Menchov, Basso, Samuel Sanchez, Rodriguez (on climbs).

So no, it is unlikely that VDB will win a stage. Not impossible, but unlikely. Sure it would be nice from your point of view, but that itself doesnt increase his chances one bit.

 

[ingsve]

I also have a hard time seeing how he would go about winning a stage. On stages where the GC guys are within reach of the win on a mountains top finish he's not likely to be the strongest in the end with the types of riders that have been in the top of GC the past years. While he has been strong and consistent in the climbs he's not going to outclimb guys like Schleck+Schleck, Rodriques, Contador etc for a mountain top win. He will also not be given much room to escape unless he has lost lots of time on GC.