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Giro 2017, stage 12: Forlì – Reggio Emilia 229 km

Eshnar said:
STAGE 12: Forlì – Reggio Emilia 229 km

START TIME: 11.35 CEST

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Technical Overview:
The longest stage of this Giro is not anywhere as long as in recent editions, with the totally reasonable length of 229 km. It is also fairly easy, with two not very demanding climbs in the first half. First, starting at km 55, Colla di Casaglia (GPM2, 7.7km at 4.9%) will lead the peloton back in Tuscany, for a nice stroll in the Mugello area. The descent of Colla di Casaglia is very technical but rather short (9 km). From the bottom of it, the riders will go just short of 30 km of false flat in the valley, just before climbing again towards the second and last GPM of the day, Valico Appenninico (GPM3, 10.1 km at 3.3%), very regular and easy. The descent is fast and straightforward, and once past it the peloton will have 96 flat km to catch the breakaway. The finish is also very easy, with no dangerous turns and long straights.

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The Climbs:
Colla di Casaglia GPM2
Not much to say about this one. If not that GPM2 is too much... but they probably want to give the breakaway an incentive...
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Valico Appenninico GPM3
No profile. Looks just regular and really easy.

What to expect:
The breakaway to gain 20 minutes, and then to get reeled in by the full peloton for a bunch sprint.

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Story Time:
Born in Forlì in the year 1881, Tullo Morgagni can be considered the father of competitive cycling in Italy. He started his career as a journalist in Milan at age 18, and after casually meeting and bonding during an airship cruise with the director of Gazzetta dello Sport, Eugenio Costamagna, he started working for the famous newspaper.
A huge sport enthusiast, in 1904, he organized the first Motorcycling competition in Italy, a 1000km team race. In the same year created a cycling race, the "Gran Fondo".
In 1905, he had the idea to organize a pro cycling race starting and finishing in Milan, initially called "Milano-Milano", that was a big success and would be renamed two years later as "Giro di Lombardia". In 1907 Morgagni, already become chief editor of Gazzetta dello Sport, took inspiration from a failed running race, a two stage competition from Milano to Acqui Terme and then from there to Sanremo, and created another cycling race, the Milano-Sanremo.
One year later, on August 5th, 1908, he got a telegraph from a friend of his, Angelo Gatti, founder and co-owner of Atala (a bike-manufacturer), who had discovered that another newspaper, the Corriere della Sera, was planning to organize an Italian stage race alonge the same lines of the recently created Tour de France. Morgagni acted immediately, and the following day he called a meeting with all the Gazzetta associates, who approved to organize the Giro d'Italia. The official announcement was printed on the daily issue of the Gazzetta dello Sport in date August 7th, 1908.
In 1913 he founded his own newspaper, "Lo Sport Illustrato", which was coupled with the Gazzetta and had two issues per month. During the war he became a war reporter, focusing on his passion, the aviation, which he treated as a kind of sport. His reports were describing the feats of the pilots as if they were athletes, and after the war he focused on campaigning for the usage of the airforce for civilian purposes.
On August 2nd 1919, at age 38, he embarked for a civilian flight from Milan to Venice and back. On the way back, the plane he was travelling on crashed. There were no survivors.

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Time to figure out who the fastest man really is. Greipel should be better after 11 days, I reckon Ewan is starting to get spend, I don't know about Gav's recovery. It really is a tossup, but going with Gaviria since I think he is the fastest of those 3 normally.
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Time to figure out who the fastest man really is. Greipel should be better after 11 days, I reckon Ewan is starting to get spend, I don't know about Gav's recovery. It really is a tossup, but going with Gaviria since I think he is the fastest of those 3 normally.

Another three way sprint would be nice on a good finish straight. Ewan has been doing a Cavendish in the mountains but I reckon he goes home after this stage anyway.
 
Gaviria and Greipel both finished in the main gruppeto today, while Ewan came in five minutes later. Ewan was also second-last, to Pelucchi, in the TT. These results suggest that Ewan is getting tired. Gaviria also crashed in the TT, which might affect him. I therefore predict that Greipel will win.
 
Re: Re:

movingtarget said:
Valv.Piti said:
Time to figure out who the fastest man really is. Greipel should be better after 11 days, I reckon Ewan is starting to get spend, I don't know about Gav's recovery. It really is a tossup, but going with Gaviria since I think he is the fastest of those 3 normally.

Another three way sprint would be nice on a good finish straight. Ewan has been doing a Cavendish in the mountains but I reckon he goes home after this stage anyway.
Right before the flattest stage of the race?
 
Re: Re:

jaylew said:
movingtarget said:
Valv.Piti said:
Time to figure out who the fastest man really is. Greipel should be better after 11 days, I reckon Ewan is starting to get spend, I don't know about Gav's recovery. It really is a tossup, but going with Gaviria since I think he is the fastest of those 3 normally.

Another three way sprint would be nice on a good finish straight. Ewan has been doing a Cavendish in the mountains but I reckon he goes home after this stage anyway.
Right before the flattest stage of the race?

After next stage I meant. I am taking it stage by stage and have not been looking ahead much to what's to come. My ignorance terrifies me.................