Giro d'Italia Giro d‘Italia 2024 Stage 15, Manerba del Garda-Livigno (Mottolino), 222 km

[QueenStagiaire]

Thanks to @Devil's Elbow I got to copy a post almost as long as this stage:

Stage 15: Manerba del Garda – Livigno (Mottolino), 222.0k​

The queen stage, and it’s a great microcosm of all that’s wrong with RCS. Sure, the numbers make it seem really hard – longest stage of the race, 5400 metres of elevation gain – but the terrain just isn’t all that suitable for attacking. And it’s entirely RCS’s own fault: for the second year running, they’ve announced a big climb in Switzerland that is usually closed in May, done nothing to ensure the road is actually open, and then – surprise! – had to change plans after the original announcement. To do so once is bad enough, to do so twice in a row means you’re either totally incompetent or serially dishonest. Now, they could still have had a stage that was almost as good as the original one by going over the Gavia (which backs directly into the penultimate climb) instead of the weak side of the Mortirolo, but clearly that was too much to ask for too. The result is this mess of a stage, the weakest route with over 5000 metres of elevation imaginable.



The route

The caravan has transferred all of 15 kilometres overnight, into Manerba del Garda. Modern Manerba is a collection of small villages joined together by new, mostly tourist-oriented sprawl. Above it is a rocky hill that was inhabited from the Mesolithic until the Middle Ages, today both an archeological site and a popular viewpoint.

The route starts by bypassing Salò – clearly, Riccione was enough in the way of uncomfortable fascist history for one Giro – and then heads up the Chiese valley, away from Lake Garda. Here, we pass through Sabbio Chiese, where last year’s Monte Bondone stage started. At the point where the valley turns northeast towards the Lago d’Idro and Trentino, the riders leave it, and that means it’s time to climb. Lodrino isn’t exactly hard, but if the break hasn’t gone yet, the racing will be.

Next up is the first Alpine pass of this year’s race, Colle di San Zeno. This is the shorter, easier side, but it’s still a good climb. If there is still no break, it should form here.

The descent is probably the narrowest of this year’s Giro and takes us to the northern end of Lake Iseo. It’s only a quick visit, as the route heads north up the Val Camonica. This valley section lasts for quite a while, taking us through the intermediate sprint to the Mortirolo. Infuriatingly, this will be the third time in its four most recent inclusions that they’re taking the single easiest way up, and while I’m fully aware that the classic side can’t be easily reached from this direction, they could at least acknowledge the existence of the Recta Contador.

The descent into the Valtellina is fairly technical (you may remember Nibali attacking here in 2022). The road up the valley is a long drag, but at 32 kilometres from the line, the climbing restarts in earnest. With that, the flat has ran out, but the actually steep stuff very nearly has as well by this point. Some of what remains comes on the short climb to the bonus sprint at Le Motte.

After the briefest of descents and the Intergiro sprint, it’s time for Passo di Foscagno. It’s at altitude and at least somewhat long, but an average gradient of 6.5% on a very consistent climb isn’t exactly great for attacks.

A brief descent takes us to the bottom of the most hilariously overcategorised climb in history, Mottolino. Forget about ASO thinking Arcalis should be a HC climb, here’s RCS designating a 4.7k, 7.7% MTF as a cat. 1 in a race without a HC category. All the difficulty is in the final two kilometres.

The Mottolino MTF is new to the Giro, the final ramp having been paved for this stage, but the resort village of Livigno to which it belongs has hosted twice before, in 1972 (Eddy Merckx) and 2005 (Iván Ramiro Parra, on a Mythical Mark Padun weekend before Mythical Mark Padun was a thing). In the latter year, it also hosted the MTB world championships. Away from cycling, it’s a high-altitude ski resort that has enjoyed duty-free status since its days under Austrian control.

What to expect?

A war of attrition in the GC battle (unless Pogacar feels like dropping a watts bomb, I guess), whether that happens behind a breakaway or not is up in the air.

This stage will be more exhausting for the viewers than for Pogačar.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I still don't get why they didn't just use the recta Contador side of the Mortirolo once the stage got changed.
Overall I get the impression that RCS contracts before the Giro presentation are a big joke. Just put a paragraph in it that Livigno agrees to pay for the Forcola di Livigno clearing works and then you make a contract with the Swiss that they will open the pass earlier for a certain amount of money.
The Bernina pass is kept open all year, so we're not even talking about cleaning 50 percent of the whole climb, costs wouldn't be that high.

Or just use swiss passes that are kept open all year round...

 

[Tim Cahill]

Time for Rubio X Quintana

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Time for Rubio X Quintana

Last time I checked Rubio looked a lot different, though.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Last time I checked Rubio looked a lot different, though.

He also usually spends a lot more time in the wind than Bala did on that stage tbf

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Schachmann said after the time trial that Martinez will attack if he sees a chance but that will depend on if Pogačar shows weakness. He‘s really just Geraint Thomas with better excuses.

 

[Netserk]

Fine wind direction:

 

[Roku]

The Mortirolo stage is Jan Hirt specialty. Hope for a 2022 repeat.

 

[Netserk]

Caruso to drill the descent of Mortirolo!

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Caruso to drill the descent of Mortirolo!

So sad that cycling has come to the point where the only sliver of hope is Sicilian man descent attacks.

 

[solo80k]

The Mortirolo stage is Jan Hirt specialty. Hope for a 2022 repeat.

I think Pogacar won't allow it this time. There's a rest day next and Pog can finish most if not all his GC opponents tomorrow.

 

[Monte Serra]

Pogačar to attack on the Mortirolo and silence all the cynics and skeptics, who don't believe that he can do well on long high altitude multiple mountain stages.

 

[Ulle97]

So Pogacar to win this stage???

Do you think UAE will allow the break to go for the stage or does Pogi really want to hammer home his advantage with his growing cannibalistic tendencies??

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm already so annoyed about the media hyping up a 12.6km at 7.6% climb just because it's called "Mortirolo".

 

[Mayomaniac]

Caruso to drill the descent of Mortirolo!

Tiberi himself has also been a really good descender since the junior days.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I'm already so annoyed about the media hyping up a 12.6km at 7.6% climb just because it's called "Mortirolo".

Just use the Recta Contador, the Muro di Sormano style variant from that side, instead and it's fine.

You get those 3kms at 14% in the middle instead, enough to break up the race.

 

[Red Rick]

Just use the Recta Contador, the Muro di Sormano style variant from that side, instead and it's fine.

You get those 3kms at 14% in the middle instead, enough to break up the race.

I really dont think it matters that much with GC standings as they are and the long false flat.

This stage would simply have been much better with Forcala di Livigno

 

[Mayomaniac]

I really dont think it matters that much with GC standings as they are and the long false flat.

This stage would simply have been much better with Forcala di Livigno

Can't argue against that one...

 

[Valv.Piti]

Great stage, cant wait for this one!

 

[Gigs_98]

I really dont think it matters that much with GC standings as they are and the long false flat.

This stage would simply have been much better with Forcala di Livigno

I agree, but with the Recta Contador side the Mortirolo at least somewhat lives up to its name. In the post race part today the German Eurosport crew genuinely talked about the Mortirolo as if it was the west side. They even said the length and average gradient and suddenly pretended like 7% was absolutely monstrous.

 

[Forever The Best]

Not sure if Foscagno is enough, especially with the finish at Mottolino with last 2k @ %10. Especially with the GC situation this can be very boring.
Forcola di Livigno would have been great. Overall what a bland route by the way.

 

[Monsi]

I really dont think it matters that much with GC standings as they are and the long false flat.

This stage would simply have been much better with Forcala di Livigno

Really agree with that. Forcola di Livigno was actually a really tough climb and it would've meant that riders would actually attack on that climb instead of waiting for that 2 km section at the finish.

Now, with the current profile, the last climb with steep ramps that could serve as launchpad for attacks is at the Mortirolo, almost 70 km from the finish. Foscagno is just a steady shallow climb. Unless Pogacar is crazy enough to attack from the Mortirolo, I don't really know where differences could be made apart from the last 2 km. Okay, maybe some riders will struggle on Foscagno because of altitude but I really don't see major gaps being created on that climb.

 

[Red Rick]

Really agree with that. Forcola di Livigno was actually a really tough climb and it would've meant that riders would actually attack on that climb instead of waiting for that 2 km section at the finish.

Now, with the current profile, the last climb with steep ramps that could serve as launchpad for attacks is at the Mortirolo, almost 70 km from the finish. Foscagno is just a steady shallow climb. Unless Pogacar is crazy enough to attack from the Mortirolo, I don't really know where differences could be made apart from the last 2 km. Okay, maybe some riders will struggle on Foscagno because of altitude but I really don't see major gaps being created on that climb.

Nah we should not pretend pogacar couldnt just drop everyone on Foscagno

 

[Froome]

Thanks to @Devil's Elbow I got to copy a post almost as long as this stage:

Stage 15: Manerba del Garda – Livigno (Mottolino), 222.0k​

The queen stage, and it’s a great microcosm of all that’s wrong with RCS. Sure, the numbers make it seem really hard – longest stage of the race, 5400 metres of elevation gain – but the terrain just isn’t all that suitable for attacking. And it’s entirely RCS’s own fault: for the second year running, they’ve announced a big climb in Switzerland that is usually closed in May, done nothing to ensure the road is actually open, and then – surprise! – had to change plans after the original announcement. To do so once is bad enough, to do so twice in a row means you’re either totally incompetent or serially dishonest. Now, they could still have had a stage that was almost as good as the original one by going over the Gavia (which backs directly into the penultimate climb) instead of the weak side of the Mortirolo, but clearly that was too much to ask for too. The result is this mess of a stage, the weakest route with over 5000 metres of elevation imaginable.



The route

The caravan has transferred all of 15 kilometres overnight, into Manerba del Garda. Modern Manerba is a collection of small villages joined together by new, mostly tourist-oriented sprawl. Above it is a rocky hill that was inhabited from the Mesolithic until the Middle Ages, today both an archeological site and a popular viewpoint.

The route starts by bypassing Salò – clearly, Riccione was enough in the way of uncomfortable fascist history for one Giro – and then heads up the Chiese valley, away from Lake Garda. Here, we pass through Sabbio Chiese, where last year’s Monte Bondone stage started. At the point where the valley turns northeast towards the Lago d’Idro and Trentino, the riders leave it, and that means it’s time to climb. Lodrino isn’t exactly hard, but if the break hasn’t gone yet, the racing will be.

Next up is the first Alpine pass of this year’s race, Colle di San Zeno. This is the shorter, easier side, but it’s still a good climb. If there is still no break, it should form here.

The descent is probably the narrowest of this year’s Giro and takes us to the northern end of Lake Iseo. It’s only a quick visit, as the route heads north up the Val Camonica. This valley section lasts for quite a while, taking us through the intermediate sprint to the Mortirolo. Infuriatingly, this will be the third time in its four most recent inclusions that they’re taking the single easiest way up, and while I’m fully aware that the classic side can’t be easily reached from this direction, they could at least acknowledge the existence of the Recta Contador.

The descent into the Valtellina is fairly technical (you may remember Nibali attacking here in 2022). The road up the valley is a long drag, but at 32 kilometres from the line, the climbing restarts in earnest. With that, the flat has ran out, but the actually steep stuff very nearly has as well by this point. Some of what remains comes on the short climb to the bonus sprint at Le Motte.

After the briefest of descents and the Intergiro sprint, it’s time for Passo di Foscagno. It’s at altitude and at least somewhat long, but an average gradient of 6.5% on a very consistent climb isn’t exactly great for attacks.

A brief descent takes us to the bottom of the most hilariously overcategorised climb in history, Mottolino. Forget about ASO thinking Arcalis should be a HC climb, here’s RCS designating a 4.7k, 7.7% MTF as a cat. 1 in a race without a HC category. All the difficulty is in the final two kilometres.

The Mottolino MTF is new to the Giro, the final ramp having been paved for this stage, but the resort village of Livigno to which it belongs has hosted twice before, in 1972 (Eddy Merckx) and 2005 (Iván Ramiro Parra, on a Mythical Mark Padun weekend before Mythical Mark Padun was a thing). In the latter year, it also hosted the MTB world championships. Away from cycling, it’s a high-altitude ski resort that has enjoyed duty-free status since its days under Austrian control.

What to expect?

A war of attrition in the GC battle (unless Pogacar feels like dropping a watts bomb, I guess), whether that happens behind a breakaway or not is up in the air.

This stage will be more exhausting for the viewers than for Pogačar.

Is this the Queen stage of the Giro?
LMAO, what happened to the Giro in the last years.....

 

[Cookster15]

I think Pogacar could take a minute here. 30 seconds to Foscagno, then another 30 seconds to the finish. And he doesn't really need to go into the red that is how much better he is than the rest*. Plus he will still finish this stage plenty fresh. This is where he reminds that he still has huge recovery.

*The caveat is altitude.