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Giro d'Italia Giro d‘Italia 2024 Stage 15, Manerba del Garda-Livigno (Mottolino), 222 km

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Nah we should not pretend pogacar couldnt just drop everyone on Foscagno
Oh about Pogacar, then yeah I don't really doubt that lol. If break doesn't win, then I obviously expect Pogi to win, whether by dropping everyone on Foscagno or on that 2 km steep part to the finish (though I secretly hope he attacks on Mortirolo but that will just remain an imagination I guess)
I agree, but with the Recta Contador side the Mortirolo at least somewhat lives up to its name. In the post race part today the German Eurosport crew genuinely talked about the Mortirolo as if it was the west side. They even said the length and average gradient and suddenly pretended like 7% was absolutely monstrous.
I mean, if you listened to German Eurosport, you would also think that Georg Steinhauser is the second coming of Jesus and the only rider in the race. Aldag really is the only one with common sense on there, so it was good that he was back today.
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I'm kinda hoping for some Pogi action in the mountain stages, and not just him hanging about waiting for a sprint. With him in the group, nobody will do anything. To get proper racing among the rest, we need Pogi out in front (or out the back, but that's unlikely). That's what made the Armstrong Tours watchable. Him attacking on almost every uphill finish meant that the rest of the GC guys were in ones and twos and there was some good entertainment for the lesser positions.

I'm going with breakaway with some guys like Bardet, Hirt, Fortunato in it. Then Ineos and Bora panic and tempo ride all day long keeping the break close. Pog attacks on that last steep section and wins by 30 seconds. We're all bored.
I don't really get it... Do you think that GC guys will finish within 30-40 seconds after 2 weeks of Giro, racing in 220+ kms stage and finale above 2200 meters? I understand that there's no Stelvio but anyway, gaps shouldn't be small either... 👀
This stage reminds me of stage 14 of the 2016 Giro.
Valparola is not very different from Foscagno and yet Kruijswijk and Chaves would have blown up the race (and Nibali himself) . Don't underestimate the altitude and length.

Pog is the scriptwriter here. If he goes solo earlier then there will also be some fight among the rest. If he doesn't then any attack will be covered by him ending up with a stomp in the last km.
Honestly, I don‘t think Pogačar is neutralizing the GC fight too much. You literally only need one more bike length than normal with Pogi in your wheel since he‘s always directly onto the wheel of attacks anyway.
By the way, Pogi should ride this stage like the 2001 Alpe d‘Huez stage. Sit at the back pretending to suffer and let the German team do all the work before Jose Luis Majka comes forward to launch him at the bottom of Foscagno. Jan Thomas and Joseba Martinez will be demoralized and look at each other and boom… two minutes.
I just see one scenario to have a fun race tomorrow.
Arensman in the breakaway. The breakaway get's a big gap who can put in danger the maglia rosa, and Emirates team loses the control of the race, obliging Pogacar to work alone from far.

The odds of this happening? Almost zero, unfortunately.