Giro d'Italia 2015: Stage 5: La Spezia – Abetone 152 kms MTF

[Red Rick]

Since I see people hyping up tomorrow stage, I thought I'd open up the thread. With Abetone being such a dull climb I didn't imagine anyone was in it to make an epic stage thread. What I expect? A big disappointment, Astana may drill it, but nobody major will attack with the whole climb being unsuited to attacking from 3-4k out, in a stage of the race where you can't expect much more.

But this is the Giro, and I might be completely wrong

Stage 5: La Spezia – Abetone 152 kms MTF

Start time: 13:05, May 13th

Analysis:
First MTF of the race, already on stage 5, which is a vast improvement with respect to the previous editions. The peloton leaves Liguria for good and enters Tuscany through the inland, soon climbing the first GPM of the day, the cat.3 Foce Carpinelli (10.1 km, 5%). After that, a long false flat, first descending and then ascending, along the Garfagnana valley. On the way, they'll pass aside arguably one of the hardest climbs ever raced in the Giro, but this is not the day it will be raced again. Instead, the race will head all the way to the GPM2 of Abetone, the Montevergine of this edition. Luckily, Abetone (southern side) is a bit harder than the classic 30-men-sprint-mountain of the south: 17.3 km at 5.4%, but its central part measures 8 km at 7.2%, which is not bad at all. The hard part, however, ends at around 5 km to the top, while the final part only averages 4.7%.

WINNERS IN ABETONE
1954 Gianneschi
1959 Gaul
2000 Casagrande

Expectations:
Sprint between a fairly selected gc group. Let's say 10-15 men. Only the time bonuses will be on stack.

 

[SeriousSam]

Porte to try something

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Porte will sprint for 500m and win the stage.
The rest will likely be a dull controlled affair.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Breakaway win. Group of 10ish riders containing the main gc men coming in togheter.

 

[DBotero]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2015: Stage 5: La Spezia – Abetone 152 kms

Porte's time to shine.Looks like a decent climb to try something.

 

[Red Rick]

If they're gonna sprint for it, Porte is very unlikely to be the guy who's gonna win. Tinkoff may send up Kreuziger halfway on the climb, but on this climb you either have to attack with 8k to go or wait for the sprint

 

[PremierAndrew]

Aru to attack before Contador/Porte taking the sprint if Aru's attacks are strong enough to separate those 3 from the rest

 

[deValtos]

Normally the first Giro MTF has a largish group of GC riders sprinting at the top but I think it might be a little different this time. Since the time gaps are so big already I could definitely see someone like JVDB going for it a bit further out and kicking things off.

JVDB to win this one, he looked like the 4th strongest climber today but just couldn't get onto the Porte/Contador/Aru group.

 

[phil-i-am]

What about Zakarin? Can't believe he lost his shape that quickly. Today he might have been bad positioned before Passo Termine, tried to come back and eventually gave up in order to save his legs when realised he wasn't gonna make it back.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Clarke will certainly not be there and I doubt Chaves will be there, maybe if nothing happens. So a strong possibility that Contador or Aru will be in pink tomorrow. Porte would need to get away and win the stage to get into pink, much less likely.

 

[gmedina]

Re:

Clarke will certainly not be there and I doubt Chaves will be there, maybe if nothing happens. So a strong possibility that Contador or Aru will be in pink tomorrow. Porte would need to get away and win the stage to get into pink, much less likely.

I'd love to see Chavez in the maglia rosa! He can climb, but I do agree...I doubt that he'll keep up with Cont/Porte/Aru.

 

[Velolover2]

Stage 4 was much harder. Porte attacking now on such easy gradients would be plain stupid. He is not going to drop Contador or Aru.

Ulissi ftw. Uran maybe. He needs some time bonus and is fast in a sprint. A group of 15-20 men finishing together.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Clarke will certainly not be there and I doubt Chaves will be there, maybe if nothing happens. So a strong possibility that Contador or Aru will be in pink tomorrow. Porte would need to get away and win the stage to get into pink, much less likely.

In before Ryo calls you names

Anyway, I actually do think that Chaves will be able to stay with the front group. Monsalve could perhaps get a win tomorrow?

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Re: Re:

Clarke will certainly not be there and I doubt Chaves will be there, maybe if nothing happens. So a strong possibility that Contador or Aru will be in pink tomorrow. Porte would need to get away and win the stage to get into pink, much less likely.

In before Ryo calls you names

Anyway, I actually do think that Chaves will be able to stay with the front group. Monsalve could perhaps get a win tomorrow?

Chaves has used been in the break two days in a row, that is going to cost him as well.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think either Chaves or Kreuziger will take the jersey

 

[phil-i-am]

Re: Re:

Chaves has used been in the break two days in a row, that is going to cost him as well.

On the other hand he didn't give a single pull neither today nor yesterday.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Clarke will certainly not be there and I doubt Chaves will be there, maybe if nothing happens. So a strong possibility that Contador or Aru will be in pink tomorrow. Porte would need to get away and win the stage to get into pink, much less likely.

I'd love to see Chavez in the maglia rosa! He can climb, but I do agree...I doubt that he'll keep up with Cont/Porte/Aru.

Chaves would need a breakaway to get really clear in order to nullify the bonus seconds to have a chance. Then his best bet would probably be to try to slip out relatively early before the pace ramps up, since I doubt the big boys are going to follow an big move by him early on, hopefully with someone like Intxausti/Zardini/Hesjedal angling for the stage win. It'd be a very hard move to pull of.

 

[Velolover2]

Hopefully Tinkoff will not use the same tactics as the last couple of days.

They need some fresh guys for the later stages.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Re: Re:

Chaves has used been in the break two days in a row, that is going to cost him as well.

On the other hand he didn't give a single pull neither today nor yesterday.

What a load of nonsense.

 

[indianfanboy]

I think Astana will try to isolate Contador and Porte and set up an Aru attack but the climb is not too hard
I dont think Aru will let anyone sneak away and take the stage he looks very keen and confident on getting those bonus points

my prediction - Aru to attack with 1,5 km to go but Contador and Porte mark him and a very close finish between Porte and Aru for the stage

 

[Jspear]

Sure Chaves has been in the break the last two days but it's still early in the race. He can still ride well. I expect (and hope) him to be in pink at the end of the day. Chaves for the win from a breakaway!

 

[Velolover2]

Could be fun if Chaves takes the victory. Orica in pink for an entire week.

Gerrans -> Matthews -> Clarke -> Chaves.

 

[rune1107]

Tinkoff-Saxo train for 6-7 km, and Alberto trying a small dig to test his rivals. Group of 5-10 riders to sprint, Caruso to win the stage..

 

[jens_attacks]

aru will test them again, richie i think will win

 

[carton]

Re:

I think Astana will try to isolate Contador and Porte and set up an Aru attack but the climb is not too hard
I dont think Aru will let anyone sneak away and take the stage he looks very keen and confident on getting those bonus points

my prediction - Aru to attack with 1,5 km to go but Contador and Porte mark him and a very close finish between Porte and Aru for the stage

Maybe. But even robots can't keep the power light glowing every single day with some time to recharge. Astana and TS have worked pretty hard since the start of the Giro. No other teams seem to be up for pushing the pace. And a lot of teams could use a win from the breakaway. I think a gingerly pace to Pistoia is not necessarily likely but not out of the question either.