Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yates?

[tobydawq]

Looks like my logic proved to be quite on the nose.

 

[Stella0596]

I voted he wouldn't win, but still expected him to be on the podium at least. MS clearly have to look at what went wrong, for both him and Chaves (it feels like ages ago since we saw him win on Etna).

 

[Leinster]

Re:

So I will make two different predictions for the final week, a conservative one and a bold one.

Conservative: Yates loses around 1'30" in the ITT, keeps the jersey, extends his lead by winning in Pratonevoso and then Haig/Nieve/Kreuziger reel back any attack from more than 5 km in the final two mountain stages. Pinot and Pozzovivo keep climbing roughly on the same level and Pinot finishes third (bonus + TT gain). Lopez wins the white jersey. Froome tries a couple attacks but Mitchelton neutralises him.

Final GC

Yates
Dumoulin 1'30"
Pinot 3'30"
Pozzovivo 4'00"
Froome 5'00
Lopez 6'00"
Carapaz 6'30"


Bold: Yates suffers after the rest day, loses 2'30" in the ITT. Tommy wins in Pratonevoso but Froome is a close second, Yates loses another 30 seconds.
The next day Froome goes as soon as the sterrato starts on Finestre, peloton explodes, Carapaz and Bilbao bonk, Oomen starts pulling but can't close the gap. Froome has a teammate who helps him in the valley after Sestriere. Come the Jafferau Dumoulin starts chasing on his own with Pinot, Lopez and Betancur on his wheel, Yates fades. Froome wins, Lopez loses a minute, Betancur and Pinot 1'30", Dumoulin 2', Pozzo and Yates 3'.
Stage 20 is held in a rainy day, Pinot feels as he has never before and attacks on Tsecore, Froome hasn't recovered from the day before and is dropped, as is Yates. At the bottom of St. Pantaleon only Pinot, Dumoulin, Lopez and Betancur are in the group. Pinot keeps attacking until he drops Dumoulin, who has to chase on his own because Betancur and Lopez don't help him. Tommy cracks on the way to Cervinia, Betancur is told there's a bandeja paisa at the finish line and attacks like it's 2013 all over again. He catches Pinot and outsprints him to win the stage. Il Grandissimo Tibopino wins the Giro. Tonton hosts a party for all the forum member with champagne flowing from Pinot-themed fountains in his garden.

Final GC

Pinot
The rest (I'll be too drunk with champagne to remember the gaps).

I want this post to be at least half as spookily accurate for tomorrow as it was for today. I don’t even care which half.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Just yesterday, this looked like potentially a 3 horse race. Amazing how much changes in one day

Who was the third one?

Froome

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

So I will make two different predictions for the final week, a conservative one and a bold one.

Conservative: Yates loses around 1'30" in the ITT, keeps the jersey, extends his lead by winning in Pratonevoso and then Haig/Nieve/Kreuziger reel back any attack from more than 5 km in the final two mountain stages. Pinot and Pozzovivo keep climbing roughly on the same level and Pinot finishes third (bonus + TT gain). Lopez wins the white jersey. Froome tries a couple attacks but Mitchelton neutralises him.

Final GC

Yates
Dumoulin 1'30"
Pinot 3'30"
Pozzovivo 4'00"
Froome 5'00
Lopez 6'00"
Carapaz 6'30"


Bold: Yates suffers after the rest day, loses 2'30" in the ITT. Tommy wins in Pratonevoso but Froome is a close second, Yates loses another 30 seconds.
The next day Froome goes as soon as the sterrato starts on Finestre, peloton explodes, Carapaz and Bilbao bonk, Oomen starts pulling but can't close the gap. Froome has a teammate who helps him in the valley after Sestriere. Come the Jafferau Dumoulin starts chasing on his own with Pinot, Lopez and Betancur on his wheel, Yates fades. Froome wins, Lopez loses a minute, Betancur and Pinot 1'30", Dumoulin 2', Pozzo and Yates 3'.
Stage 20 is held in a rainy day, Pinot feels as he has never before and attacks on Tsecore, Froome hasn't recovered from the day before and is dropped, as is Yates. At the bottom of St. Pantaleon only Pinot, Dumoulin, Lopez and Betancur are in the group. Pinot keeps attacking until he drops Dumoulin, who has to chase on his own because Betancur and Lopez don't help him. Tommy cracks on the way to Cervinia, Betancur is told there's a bandeja paisa at the finish line and attacks like it's 2013 all over again. He catches Pinot and outsprints him to win the stage. Il Grandissimo Tibopino wins the Giro. Tonton hosts a party for all the forum member with champagne flowing from Pinot-themed fountains in his garden.

Final GC

Pinot
The rest (I'll be too drunk with champagne to remember the gaps).

I want this post to be at least half as spookily accurate for tomorrow as it was for today. I don’t even care which half.

Wow, this is indeed a very strangely correct prediction on many very unlikely parts.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yat

Not a prediction but a promise: if Tibopino wins Il Giro, huge party!!!

The doubts about Yates got confirmed, but WTF? I never expected a melt-down like this one. Or Froome resurrecting from the dead, or CancellAru in the ITT, or just about everything else .