Giro d'Italia 2021 Race Thread - Enthusiastic Laymen Edition

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Who will win the Giro in case neither Yates nor Bernal does?


  • Total voters
    59
  • Poll closed .
Regarding Evenepoel, there are a few possible scenarios:
1/ He's back in full force, as good as he was going to be in last year's Giro (or even a bit better considering he's a year older)
-> Chances of success: 316,78%
2/ He's good, better than most would expect, but clearly there is room for improvement. He won't be able to follow Yates' attacks or Bernal's supergrind all the way up, he'll bleed some time, but he'll make up most of it in the TT's, and is still good enough to do serious damage in mid-mountain stages.
-> Chances of success: 43,719%
3/ He sucks.
-> Chances of success: 12%
4/ He crashes, regardless of his form.
-> Chances of success: 1.63%

Logic dictates that if we take an average of all possible scenario's his overall chances of success are: 93,53225%
 
Regarding Evenepoel I think people are underestimating him and especially DQS. They've proven time after time they know what are they doing. If he was at DSM/Lotto etc., whatever I would say yeah, the guy it's just there. Masnada said they're gonna go for the win. You don't say that imo unless you actually think you can do it. Otherwise Evenepoel could just hunt stages if he is there just for the experience.

Personally I think he is already at a good form but DQS is probably worried the most about his endurance in the 3rd week so they're trying to go with him as fresh as possible. We know he can go at good form right off the bat. This reminds me a bit of Roglic's approach for TdF. Also DQS is playing a bit of mind games here and I can see a lot of people already ruling him out. Evenepoel is at least 3 stars imo without Slovenians being present and I'm not a fan of his. I find the field kinda weak. Sure Yates was dominant but against who really? Bilbao, Vlasov? Not really top tier GC for me.
 
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IF - and it's a huge if - Landa doesn't totally stuff the first week like he always does he should finally get his GT win. Otherwise I see a nice dogfight between Yates and Bernal with a good support cast.

I also tip Bennett, Nibali and Ciccone to do something awesome to stay in contention without truly threatening for the win, and Merlier to totally disrupt the sprint hierarchy
 
Seriously?
He was 6th in 2019 Tour racing it after Giro, which is actually a great result. In 2018 TDF he crashed and had back problems but even if we ignore it, it's not the most recent result and I think that you know that Bardet is below Landa's level right now.
Ok let's stick to the most recent result.
He was beaten by a 35 years old Porte, who had NEVER podiumed a GT before. He beat Enric Mas (widely considered an underachiever on this forum) by 9 seconds and Superman Lopez by less than a minute (and only thanks to a TT, curiously).
He was 6 minutes behind the winner.
Is this really such a strong performance warranting favorite status for the Giro. I don't see it.

Honestly I don't know if Bardet is below Landa's level right now. He was looking great in the last GT he rode before crashing out. Not worse than Landa. And yet he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt as Landa does.
Hindley podiumed the very last GT he rode.
Buchmann was very close to Bernal's level in the last GT he rode healthy.
Almeida was 4th (!) in his first GT ever.
I've already mentioned Carthy and Vlasov.

So, to me, there are multiple riders capable of winning the Giro under the right circumstances, which in this case might be more likely to happen than in previous GTs (Remco's shape being unknown, Yates inability to hit peak shape at the right time, Bernal's injury, etc). It's not Landa's Giro to lose if all those riders falter.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Regarding Evenepoel, there are a few possible scenarios:
1/ He's back in full force, as good as he was going to be in last year's Giro (or even a bit better considering he's a year older)
-> Chances of success: 316,78%
2/ He's good, better than most would expect, but clearly there is room for improvement. He won't be able to follow Yates' attacks or Bernal's supergrind all the way up, he'll bleed some time, but he'll make up most of it in the TT's, and is still good enough to do serious damage in mid-mountain stages.
-> Chances of success: 43,719%
3/ He sucks.
-> Chances of success: 12%
4/ He crashes, regardless of his form.
-> Chances of success: 1.63%

Logic dictates that if we take an average of all possible scenario's his overall chances of success are: 93,53225%
 
Ok let's stick to the most recent result.
He was beaten by a 35 years old Porte, who had NEVER podiumed a GT before. He beat Enric Mas (widely considered an underachiever on this forum) by 9 seconds and Superman Lopez by less than a minute (and only thanks to a TT, curiously).
He was 6 minutes behind the winner.
Is this really such a strong performance warranting favorite status for the Giro. I don't see it.

Honestly I don't know if Bardet is below Landa's level right now. He was looking great in the last GT he rode before crashing out. Not worse than Landa. And yet he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt as Landa does.
Hindley podiumed the very last GT he rode.
Buchmann was very close to Bernal's level in the last GT he rode healthy.
Almeida was 4th (!) in his first GT ever.
I've already mentioned Carthy and Vlasov.

So, to me, there are multiple riders capable of winning the Giro under the right circumstances, which in this case might be more likely to happen than in previous GTs (Remco's shape being unknown, Yates inability to hit peak shape at the right time, Bernal's injury, etc). It's not Landa's Giro to lose if all those riders falter.
Almeida gets dropped on every multi mountains stage and finished 4th because of the weak field. Hindley is a better climber but was also helped by the weak field.

You mention Buchmann being close to Bernal in 2019 TDF however Landa was 2:27 behind Buchmann despite losing 2 minutes in the crosswinds after being knocked off the road in the front echelon and he did the Giro beforehand.

As improved as Bardet looked, he has not finished top 10 in a grand tour since 2018 and Landa's performances this season have been much stronger.
 
It's honestly insane that Evenepoel is still getting these kind of odds. Two years ago I would have told you there is no way anyone in the world can win a gt after that kind of preparation and suggesting a guy who has never ridden a gt in his career can would have sounded beyond ridiculous. But Evenepoel has done so many things so unnormal that not even the bookies are daring to bet against him.

All in all, looking at the field this does look like another race that could go to an outsider. These three big favorites all have huge question marks to them, with Evenepoels preparation, Bernals back and Simon Yates being himself. I didn't think I'd ever favor Yates for a gt again, but honestly, I can't come up with a better #1 favorite which in itself is shocking. As some have said, by now Landa is a well known quantity and nothing that has come after the original Landani hype in 2015 has suggested that he is actually as good as we all thought for about a month. All the jokes about QS pretending Almeida to be their leader aside, considering the rate riders usually improve at, at that age, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see someone like him in the fight for the win.
Part of that is the competition. Not a single one of the competition has been a consistent podium finishers in GTs, except for Nibali who's both injured and ancient, so you get the idea that if Evenepoel is as he "was supposed to be" he'd actually be a favorite.

I don't really question if Evenepoel is fit, I wonder how he fits into 2021 era cycling.
 
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Sep 18, 2020
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He was beaten by a 35 years old Porte, who had NEVER podiumed a GT before.
It's not like Porte's lack of podiums was a result of his poor form, it was more due to bad luck/inability to stay on the bike. Anyway Landa wasn't fantastic that Tour and often looked tired on the bike but still managed to get a decent place in one of the strongest fields that we've seen in recent years.
As to the rest of your takes Pinot's goat reply is spot on.
 
Reactions: Pinot's goat
IF - and it's a huge if - Landa doesn't totally stuff the first week like he always does he should finally get his GT win. Otherwise I see a nice dogfight between Yates and Bernal with a good support cast.

I also tip Bennett, Nibali and Ciccone to do something awesome to stay in contention without truly threatening for the win, and Merlier to totally disrupt the sprint hierarchy
I would love to see one of the outside favorites go deep into the race in pink just to shake it up. Would be great fun if Bardet or Ciccone done a Carapaz/Almeida to make things a bit more interesting
 
It's not like Porte's lack of podiums was a result of his poor form, it was more due to bad luck/inability to stay on the bike. Anyway Landa wasn't fantastic that Tour and often looked tired on the bike but still managed to get a decent place in one of the strongest fields that we've seen in recent years.
As to the rest of your takes Pinot's goat reply is spot on.
You are right, Porte would likely have had multiple grand tours between 2015 and 2018 if it had not been for crashes/illness. It was not a case of ability holding him back and clearly 2019 was just a bad year for him, being beaten by Porte is not an indicator than someone is a weak GC contender.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Jan 29, 2021
58
59
280
Almeida gets dropped on every multi mountains stage and finished 4th because of the weak field. Hindley is a better climber but was also helped by the weak field.

You mention Buchmann being close to Bernal in 2019 TDF however Landa was 2:27 behind Buchmann despite losing 2 minutes in the crosswinds after being knocked off the road in the front echelon and he did the Giro beforehand.

As improved as Bardet looked, he has not finished top 10 in a grand tour since 2018 and Landa's performances this season have been much stronger.
The level in the last giro was high. Indley did 6.3 w/kg in piancavallo, that's pogacar level on prati di tivio, it was one of the best performances in the mountains last year. I think hindley could be the favourite if he goes to the giro with the same or better shape than last year.
 
The level in the last giro was high. Indley did 6.3 w/kg in piancavallo, that's pogacar level on prati di tivio, it was one of the best performances in the mountains last year. I think hindley could be the favourite if he goes to the giro with the same or better shape than last year.
Beating 2017 Pinots time a minute

vs

Beating 2013 Froomes time by 2 minutes+
 
Regarding Evenepoel I think people are underestimating him and especially DQS. They've proven time after time they know what are they doing. If he was at DSM/Lotto etc., whatever I would say yeah, the guy it's just there. Masnada said they're gonna go for the win. You don't say that imo unless you actually think you can do it. Otherwise Evenepoel could just hunt stages if he is there just for the experience.

Personally I think he is already at a good form but DQS is probably worried the most about his endurance in the 3rd week so they're trying to go with him as fresh as possible. We know he can go at good form right off the bat. This reminds me a bit of Roglic's approach for TdF. Also DQS is playing a bit of mind games here and I can see a lot of people already ruling him out. Evenepoel is at least 3 stars imo without Slovenians being present and I'm not a fan of his. I find the field kinda weak. Sure Yates was dominant but against who really? Bilbao, Vlasov? Not really top tier GC for me.
Remco is going for the win in the giro, Froome is going for the win in the tour. What gc rider is not going for the win? Nibali. He's going for the laugh.
 

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