Nibali was not going to win that Tour...
Contador was lucky to win the 2007 Tour. Nibali was lucky to win the 2016 Giro. Pereiro was lucky to win the 2006 Tour.
But Thomas was not lucky - if he was, then more than half of all GT wins were, including most of Contador's and Nibali's.
I think all of those had a strong element of luck. Rasmussen getting pulled was extremely lucky, even though there were valid clinic reasons that also explained why he was suddenly so good. Nibali looked nowhere close until he forced that error and then found his legs. Pereiro was an lol winner. How is Thomas’s top 2 challengers, including his own teammate and 4-time Tour champ and the returning Giro champ, deciding not to prioritize the Tour not luck? Had Froome started that race going all in for number 5 it wouldn’t have mattered how good Thomas was, they would have gone for it with Thomas. And, as Red Rick mentioned, he didn’t beat Dumoulin by much despite their fatigue from the Giro and their respective mishaps, which cost them each over a minute.
The reality is that there is often a lot of luck involved though. If Almeida wins this, he will be lucky Remco got Covid and Roglic and GHG crashed, etc. That doesn’t mean he won’t deserve it, and the history books will forget anyways.