Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2025, Stage 11: Viareggio > Castelnovo ne’ Monti (186 km)

By @Devil's Elbow: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/giro-ditalia-2025-stage-by-stage-analysis.40381/post-3178382

Another stage that should tell the third-tier climbers in this race not to bother with channelling their inner Zubeldia this Giro.

Map and profile

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Start

The final stage host in Tuscany is also by far the youngest. Viareggio was founded in the early 16th century, after a papal decree meant that the Republic of Lucca lost control of Motrone, its sole seaport. The new port was built here mainly by virtue of the Republic having very little coastline left. As such, it really wasn’t the most advantageous location, mostly surrounded by swamps (which also hindered transport to Lucca). Thus, Viareggio was more a village than a town in the first centuries of its existence. In the 18th century, the swamps were drained and Viareggio started to grow. Seaside tourism started to develop here as early as the first half of the 19th century, and therefore annexation by/unification with first Tuscany in 1847 and then Italy in 1860 only helped its cause as its hinterland was massively expanded. At the same time, it developed a sizeable shipbuilding industry (then sailboats, now mostly luxury yachts). This all resulted in Viareggio being transformed from a minor post into a large seaside resort town within the span of half a century. 1873 saw the establishment of its carnival parade, which now attracts upwards of half a million spectators each year and is broadcast live on national television.

The 20th century was more tumultuous for Viareggio. In both 1919 and 1920, it was the site of one of the uprisings of the Biennio Rosso, two years of something halfway in between widespread worker action and leftist revolution in the wake of both the Russian Revolution three years prior and, more importantly, a severe postwar economic slump. Both in Viareggio and elsewhere in Italy, this was a major factor in the rise of the blackshirt militias, and the town was one of many places where the calamitous decision to enlist said militias to contain the uprisings was made. The leftists were indeed contained, but at the same time the state lost all control over the blackshirts. Viareggio was a microcosm of the subsequent terror, with the destruction of a trade union office and the murder of two communists. Of course, the widespread violence would culminate with the March on Roma and Mussolini’s subsequent seizure of power. Viareggio itself was yet to face the worst, suffering heavily from bombings in World War II and being the site of the deadliest Italian railway accident since 1978 when, in 2009, a train carrying LPG derailed, crashed into nearby houses and exploded, killing 32 people. Aside from these tragedies, Viareggio has largely continued down the road it has been on since the 19th century. Its most famous son is Marcello Lippi, who as a trainer won the Serie A five times and the Champions League once with Juventus before guiding Italy to their final World Cup glory in 2006. It has seen the Giro a lot of late, with Magnus Cort winning a cold and wet stage here in 2023 and last year’s weak sterrato stage starting in the suburb of Torre del Lago Puccini.

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(picture by bogdan1971 at Panoramio, reuploaded to Wikimedia Commons)

Route

We have an uphill start of sorts, as the short trek to Camaiore gives way to the easy climb up Montemagno, already seen on last year’s Lucca stage. I doubt the break will go that early, but anyone getting dropped from the peloton here will have a tough battle with the time limit on their hands.

As we are inside the Apennines here, choice of roads is limited, which results in the peloton passing through the suburbs of Lucca. From there, we head into the Garfagnana valley. The next fifty kilometres are spent traversing it, with the intermediate sprint in Borgo a Mozzano and a detour into the hilltop town of Barga (3.6k at 5.9%) to break up the monotony. This section ends in the town of Castelnuovo, which sits at the base of one of the great Apennine climbs. Missing from the Giro since Francesco Casagrande’s raid in 2000, say hello to Alpe San Pellegrino.

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There are 92.4 kilometres left to race, far too early for attacks, but if a GC rider has a bad day and manages to get dropped here, the lack of flat in the remainder of the stage should preclude them from latching back on. Their only option to do so are the next 42 kilometres, mostly downhill as far as the second intermediate sprint in Cerredolo. This village also sits at the base of the next climb, the far more gradual Toano.

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There is no proper descent this time, but rather a road that makes its way to the valley in steps. At the summit of the main Gegenanstieg (petition to make that a loanword), in Villa Minozzo (3.0 km at 5.0%), there is the bonification sprint. When the riders finally make it into the Secchia valley, they get six kilometres of respite before climbing the opposite bank. With the summit at just 4.9 kilometres from the line, a decent-gradient climb would have made for a clear GC day, but sadly the fairly benign Pietra di Bismantova is the hardest option in the direct vicinity of our finish town.

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Finish

‘How many roads in Castelnovo do you want to use?’

‘Yes.’

Also, note the big turn at 100 metres to go, this will be a classic case of the de facto finish line being before the actual one.

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The origins of Castelnovo ne’ Monti date back to the 11th century, when a fort was constructed here to guard the position where the road from the Lunigiana (where La Spezia is today) joined the one from Lucca to Parma. This fort replaced a 7th-century structure at Pietra di Bismantova, the final KOM, hence the ‘novo’. In the centuries that followed, the fort grew into a castle and a small town started to develop below it, then in the 15th century Castelnovo was made the regional capital of this part of the Apennines. The castle was abandoned in the 16th century, with only a recently-restored tower surviving to the present day, but the town itself has remained the centre and largest town in the area ever since. This will be the first time a Giro stage has started or finished here.

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I could have added a picture of the town, but the Pietra di Bismantova is far more spectacular. The KOM isn’t actually atop the mountain, but about 250 metres lower on the side you can’t see in this image. (picture by Carlo Pelagalli at Panoramio, reuploaded to Wikimedia Commons)

What to expect?
Breakaway day with minor GC action at best. Options in Castelnovo are limited, but they could either have cut the penultimate climb to put San Pellegrino at 60k from the line or crossed the Secchia much sooner and done some steeper climbs with the final one being a bit further from the line to leave the door open for the GC riders.
 
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Great stage for a raid. Not really placed well with too many stages left.

Anyway ive decided that I will base my scenario for tomorrow on hope alone. EF to control the stage until Pellegrino and Carapaz with an attack to see what damage it does.
 
Rubio, Piganzoli and Vacek (jersey attempt not long term goal) seem like the most obvious candidates to move on a long raid.

Possible that Caruso tries to bomb the long descent and bridge to the break and I would not be surprised to see Carapaz and Storer try to move on the middle climb.
 
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I agree, this is the kind of stage where you can try to take back signficant time if you are slighty behind in GC. An important factor is that the road should be really twisty, so not ideal for a chasing peloton, but on the other hand the climb other tha San Pellegrino beeing really shallow is bad for the attacker. I hope Piganzoli can get back some time for his top 10 objective. Also perfect for the Arensman raid.
 
This Alpe San Pellegrino climb is a monster hidden in the Alps Apennines. Initially I thought it's a Dolomite stage, lol. Too bad it's so far from the line. We will maybe have some GC action on the last climb but that's it. A very good chance for a breakaway consisted of solid climbers.
 
That side profile makes it look really good for a long range attack considering there's almost zero flat in the second half.

And there's enough climbers still close enough here (like Carapaz maybe) who might be tempted to try something.
 
Massive break with lots of third tier climbers and an occasionaly GC candidate who lost lots of time in the TT. Rubio with Cepeda, Poole and Bardet, Ulissi and Fortunato, Prodhomme and Brenner (why is he last on the TT)?