Apart from seeing confirmation that getting close to the third week is pretty much the point where we see promising riders like Porte slip from view, I haven't got a clue what to expect here. For this year I have tossed out my "normally...." expectations and just enjoying the ride.
The closing kms of stages seem to bring splintering of the GC groups, so I do expect small gaps and attacks. It feels a bit that even if people go into a race with an intention to just get to the end of it and become active on targeted stages, for one reason or another key riders are either prompted to forget about that in the closing stages, or are prompted into action through the activity of others.
Ongoing fluidity in the GC top seems to have a positive feedback loop, which stops GC riders from settling on the spot they are at and has them waiting for the stages that suit them best to alter this (the usual GT approach), into a far more opportunistic and reactionary style by all.
We are two weeks in, and not only are we unable to get a good reading of where people are with their form and chances, it is obvious that the riders on the road are also riding with this uncertainty feeding the brain. Triggering great racing.
I think Liquigas has enough players in the front to do something here and (briefly) test the legs of others uphill, but the win will go elsewhere. I suspect that Sastre will respond to it well, and show enough to worry the others for week #3, but has no reason to force anything if he is starting to feel better.
Will be the day to see who won't end up winning it, not who will win it I think.