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Giro d'Italia Stage 17: Bruneck - Peio Terme (173km)

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May 25, 2010
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Mellow Velo said:
Suddenly a lot of fence sitters around here. Name names for this breakaway win.
Don't be shy.

As you asked nicely, my prediction is a 3 man breakaway consisting of:

Francese Beaucoup
Obscuro Italiano
Incognito Spagnolo

You heard it here first ;)
 
Big break i think with a lot of guys between say positions 20 and 50 in it. These guys can climb enough to form a decent group going over the top which can stand a chance of making it to the finish. They will be accompanied by some domestiques at first who can put some big turns in to try and build a good gap both on the downhill at first and then on the lower slopes. Bakelands finished way down today and will be in there. Wiggins is a potential breakawayer, along with Froome, Cioni and Cummings. Voeckler has climbed decently this year and could be in there. Moncoutie? Garzelli could well fancy his chances if recovered from the Corones effort. Weening, Samoilau? Dan Martin? Could even see Gerdemann try to get in there as the favourites will know that he will lose time on friday and saturday so a few minutes tomorrow wont matter.
 
Apr 10, 2009
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Mellow Velo said:
Suddenly a lot of fence sitters around here. Name names for this breakaway win.
Don't be shy.


I'll throw out Moncoutie from a break........if it comes down to a sprint amongst the GC boys I 'll root for Evans.....
 

ttrider

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Apr 23, 2010
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liquigas will let a break take bonuses then use Smyd and Nibali to put time into arroyo tbh it will probs be only 30 ish but hes in good enough form for them to need to have some kind of impact on his lead tomorow 19 and 20 i dont think will have big time gaps unless someone really blows they will move tomorow as they have to
 
Apr 1, 2010
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I think we will see Evans try something. He and Basso need to take as much time on the Pink jersey as possible. Evans over Basso on the line after Liquigas blows the group apart on the last climb.

I would like a Dan Martin win too!
 
Garzelli and possibly Tondó will get into a break hoping for the mountains points seeing as their GC contention is over. Tondó I say because he contested the mountains with Lloyd from the big breakaway. Lloyd only has about 25-30 points but he's not really been challenged for his jersey. If he's going to defend it he'll need to get into one of the major breaks, probably on Friday - and even then he'll have to Wegmann it, taking all the 5s and 3s available.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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If it comes to the gc guys I see Cunego or evans to win as Evans has shown he has a strong finish on the tougher finishes. BUt really I think liqui will let a break go.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
agreed.
It benefits Liquigas to probably let the breakaway take the time bonuses.
If it does come to the gc men, then cunego for the win.
liquigas is about the only squad strong enough to organize a chase. I think tomorrow is forgone to a break
 
Sep 16, 2009
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Libertine Seguros said:
Garzelli and possibly Tondó will get into a break hoping for the mountains points seeing as their GC contention is over. Tondó I say because he contested the mountains with Lloyd from the big breakaway. Lloyd only has about 25-30 points but he's not really been challenged for his jersey. If he's going to defend it he'll need to get into one of the major breaks, probably on Friday - and even then he'll have to Wegmann it, taking all the 5s and 3s available.

Don't rule out Moncoutie for the KOM yet. Still plenty of points on offer and from what I'm hearing, he's feeling much better than he did last week. This stage is one he can see himself winning too.

So I'll tip Moncoutie out of the break.

If it comes together, then Vinokourov will take the win as the climb suits him more than the others.
 
Frosty said:
Big break i think with a lot of guys between say positions 20 and 50 in it. These guys can climb enough to form a decent group going over the top which can stand a chance of making it to the finish. They will be accompanied by some domestiques at first who can put some big turns in to try and build a good gap both on the downhill at first and then on the lower slopes. Bakelands finished way down today and will be in there. Wiggins is a potential breakawayer, along with Froome, Cioni and Cummings. Voeckler has climbed decently this year and could be in there. Moncoutie? Garzelli could well fancy his chances if recovered from the Corones effort. Weening, Samoilau? Dan Martin? Could even see Gerdemann try to get in there as the favourites will know that he will lose time on friday and saturday so a few minutes tomorrow wont matter.

A lot of Sky guys mentioned but I agree. Think they will be looking for this one.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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ttrider said:
liquigas will let a break take bonuses then use Smyd and Nibali to put time into arroyo tbh it will probs be only 30 ish but hes in good enough form for them to need to have some kind of impact on his lead tomorow 19 and 20 i dont think will have big time gaps unless someone really blows they will move tomorow as they have to

I think 20 will certainly be a stage where time is lost, other then that, I agree with what you said.
 
Liqui to put 1 or two in the break.

Meanwhile Liqui sets a brutal pace when the peleton hits the big climb, shedding isolating the top GC guys.

LG now with several riders to support Nibali and Basso, give the companionless GC rivals too many attacks to deal with for the run up to the final climb. Vino and Evan find themselves having to work to chase down Nibali/Basso.
 
Of course a breakaway will go early in this stage..but will be caught with less than 15kms to go....Liqiugas needs to get more time on Arroyo,and they cant wait till later stages or the Final Time Trial...All this plays perfectly into Cadels Hands...Now all he has to do is follow Basso over these mts and pick up bonus seconds on stage finishes....Liqiugas needs to attack Not only Arroyo but Cadel...30-40 seconds is not enough for Basso...Just my thoughts....Vino for the stage win.....This is the best GT in the last 6 years....
 
Jan 20, 2010
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Break won't win tonight, Basso and Evans will want a shot at the 20 second bonus and close anything threatening down.

Evans could win, too hard to call really maybe Vino, maybe Cunego?
 
Jun 22, 2009
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Potomac said:
Liqui to put 1 or two in the break.

Meanwhile Liqui sets a brutal pace when the peleton hits the big climb, shedding isolating the top GC guys.

LG now with several riders to support Nibali and Basso, give the companionless GC rivals too many attacks to deal with for the run up to the final climb. Vino and Evan find themselves having to work to chase down Nibali/Basso.

The climb is not steep enough, and the stage is not tough enough to lose evans I think. He would have to be having a really bad day to lose time to basso (as I can't see basso accelrating away from evans).
At the end of this kinda climb, I would expect evans to do better, and beat basso in the sprint.

Anywhu I expect teh Liquigas train to turn it up on stage's 19 and 20.
 
ttrider said:
liquigas will let a break take bonuses then use Smyd and Nibali to put time into arroyo tbh it will probs be only 30 ish but hes in good enough form for them to need to have some kind of impact on his lead tomorow 19 and 20 i dont think will have big time gaps unless someone really blows they will move tomorow as they have to

Arroyo has zero chance of staying with Basso or Evans on Mortirolo.

19 will be as devastating as Zoncolan as long as someone attacks it. In 2006 when they ran the same finish (Mortirolo to Aprica), Basso gained over a minute on Gibo and a lot more on everyone else. Admittedly it did include Gavia too :p
 
I don't know what the roads are like, but Stage 17 seems unlikely to be a place where Leaky can gain any time. If it gets technical, it is a different story.

What I expect, possibly tomorrow and definitely on Stages 19 and 20, is for a fast pace and for Nibali to attack one day, and Basso the next, in an attempt to wear Evans out when he has to chase one, so that the next day he is toasted. Basically a repeat of this past weekend.

Lots of 'ifs' to think about.
These stages have some verrry big climbs, but they do not actually end in a big climb.

They are shorter stages than either of this past weekend (the cumulative difference is about 54 km less riding) between the two, but there is greater than 4000 meters of additional climbing over that shorter distance!

Evans appeared to have some gearing issues on Zoncolan, which likely will not repeat itself. If it does, he might chop off his mechanics head. :D

The sheer horror of these stages may actually prevent some of the crazy riding we saw this weekend. There is more climbing in Stage 20's 178 km than there was in Stages 14 and 15 combined! Then again, this is the type of terrain that Basso used to love.

:p Love the Giro :p
 
May 23, 2010
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I predict Nibali and Vino to attack and Evans and Basso to follow each other.

Arroyo will only lose time if Nibali's attack looks dangerous and Evans is forced to do something.

Evans cannot revert to type today and start trying to mark all the attacks from the likes of Scarponi, Sastre, Vino et al as hes likely to blow up and lose time to Basso or Nibali. Its happened before and it could happen today if he's not careful.

I think that Nibali will attack and win today fwiw.
 
Evans to force a selection on the Palade.
Won’t be decisive in itself but should take Leaky-gas domestiques out of the picture ahead of the final.

Also expect big break early maybe off that ramp at ~30km mark which could be chance to get team-mates up the road for Evans, Vino, Porté, etc.
 

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