Giro Tactics - Now to the End

[davidw]

So - what is it going to take to win? What are the strategies going to be?

* Menchov: pretty much keep doing what he has been. He should be ok in the final TT, so he doesn't really need to gain time on anyone, although a bit more of a margin isn't going to make him unhappy. The tricky day for him may be Monday, which has a lot of climbs, rather than the uphill finishes where it will "simply" be a matter of following wheels.

* Liquigas: they have an interesting position, tactically, as they have two very strong riders that aren't too far off the lead. They seem to have a strong team too. If I were them, I'd force the pace on Monday and then send Basso off the front before the final climb to do or die. It shouldn't be too hard to isolate Di Luca (his team seems weak).

* Di Luca: he has to go for wins on these uphill finishes and hope that one of them is big in terms of the time he takes on Menchov et al. I wonder if he'll try and target one to really pour it on, or just be up there and see how things develop.

* Leipheimer: Doesn't seem to have a lot of hope unless Di Luca and Menchov both have bad days. Monday's stage seems like the best one to spring a surprise, perhaps with Liquigas?

* Sastre: he'd have to take a couple of big wins up the hills - maybe Blockhaus and Vesuvio. I don't see it though - maybe he'll go for a stage and call it good.

 

[Parrot23]

What if...?

Levi/Astana decided.

"Well, Menchov has hoodwinked us in the TT. We can't suck wheels for the rest of the Giro on our usual comfy lead. So, plan B: forget #2 or #3 spot on the podium; not interested. We're going for the win. ##@@@@ the eye-talians and rabo bimbo russkies team, we're going for the win."

In other words, Levi could say: "Uum, 2nd and 3rd. Been there, done that. Not interested; forget it. Either gonna be #1 or #10 at Giro. Anything in-between, forget it."

May be loopy and the not the way these corporatized teams work, but stilll, what if?

Just some hyperbole here to pose a scenario given that Astana's plan A is not working. And waiting for someone else to explode is not much of plan.

 

[Parrot23]

On a lighter note.....

....Astana also could consider some psychological warfare versus Menchov. Find a fake pair of Elvis sideburns for Levi on the killer Monday stage, glue them on, and get him to shadow Menchov all day.

Or, get a Karpets mullet wig for Levi for Blockhaus to put a scare in Menchov.

 

[ElChingon]

Man I would hope for some major attacks between the GC contenders but over the years we all know its going to be just one stage and the rest they'll follow wheels and look at each other. Then they'll allow one guy to go (non GC threat) and keep him a safe time gap in front.

COME ON SOMEBODY ATTACK!!!!! (the pro riders not you guys)

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

COME ON SOMEBODY ATTACK!!!!!

I'm with you El. It's time for guys to stop playing it safe and wait to see if someone else withers until the last kilometer. Attacking only when you might gain a few seconds, and don't risk losing more than a few. Boring. Levi has made a career out of playing that tactic. And he's not the only one. So if he's got the mindset that he'd just assume finish 10th than 2nd, then let's see it. He had better be ready to attack, and early, and repeatedly. Same with Basso, same with a few others. I haven't seen anyone completely blow apart the peloton in such a manner, even causing themselves to crash and burn, in years.

Someone in GC contention is going to have to ride like Hinault and go for it, leave everything you've got on the road, and if you blow up and lose, at least you tried.

 

[St. Elia]

Menchov: Only has to conserve and stay with the attracts, this is true but remember the Italians will throw everything at him and may wear him out, plus he has to worry about Astana and Sastre, 2 min is not that much if Sastre goes at the right time.

Levi will have to attack on one of the summit finishes, my guess is on Mon. as Blockhaus and Vesuvio are too short but 40 secs not that long and could work for him as well. My guess is that we will see Popo sent up the road on one of those days Or it could be LA or one of the others and this will make Robo follow and expose Menchov and Di Luka (LPR must be wasted by this point!!) I'm not sure if robo has the guns. Levi is not really the sort of attack rider he is more of the grind it out and noone can keep up sort of rider but he may have to go for broke on one of these days

Sastre will go for broke on Mon, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain if he has the Legs that is another story.

Liquigas has the best position if you ask me as they can give a two pronged attack, the old one two, If I was menchov I would be very worried about Basso and Pellizotti.

So in short I expect fire works as well but Menchov could win, there is no doubt he has been riding amazingly for the whole race and if he does win the triple(GT's I mean) is not out of the question! I don't know about you guys but this Giiro has been one of the best I can remember.

 

[elapid]

From CN: Levi Leipheimer hopes that Monday's Giro d'Italia stage to Monte Petrano holds the key to winning his first Grand Tour. "I think Monte Petrano is the biggest day we have from now until the finish," he said to Cyclingnews. "Obviously, there are two uphill finishes with Blockhaus and Vesuvio, but Petrano is a long day and it is probably going to be hot, some guys can just crack."

Tactics aside, and once again getting off topic, I find it interesting that the thought of Cadel Evans winning a GT is so awful to some people because of his racing style, yet Levi Leipheimer has a very similar racing style (and doesn't throw tantrums) and no one seems to be complaining about either his racing or the possibility of him winning a GT. I personally think Levi is a much more boring racer than Cadel and he has the personality of a dead fish. Menchov and Di Luca are much better protagonists and, on style alone to date, much more deserving of winning this year's Giro.

Tactics wise, Menchov should win if he can neutralise Levi on Monte Petrano. That may be difficult considering his team is depleted. Despite the loss of Horner, Levi has both Popo and Armstrong as strong workers on the mountain top finishes. So, it pains me to say, Levi will be a threat. The last time trial will also be more to his liking. I don't think Sastre is in the hunt. Other than attack, attack, attack, Di Luca doesn't have much up his sleeve, but it is so good when he just busts his gut up the smaller climbs. Liquigas have the best options from a tactical point of view, but Pellizotti and Basso may be too far off the pace to win the overall. However, their tactics are more likely to benefit Menchov than Lepi.

 

[jmnikricket]

Sastre will go for broke on Mon, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain if he has the Legs that is another story.

Agreed. I could see Sastre shooting off the front at the base of Monte Petrano and putting 1:30 into his rivals, putting him in contention for another attack on Blockhaus. He has really been saving himself and his team and is the only one in contention I see able to launch an attack that Menchov/DDL can't follow (though we haven't really seen his potential yet this year, but he seems confident, of course so did Cunego).

Basso up til now has not used good tactics and/or does not have the conditioning to back them up. He needs to try and break the others on the steeper climbs so Pellizotti has a fighting chance, though I don't see either being able to get away from the leaders for long.

Leipheimer is done. Talking about him still winning is like the Universal Sports announcer claiming for the first two weeks that we'd see Armstrong end the day in pink. He can't follow the attacks of others (or even stay connected on descents), not to mention launching his own attack. He will shoot out the back on monday faster than Sastre shoots off the front and will be too far back for the final TT to help him. He just needs to wheelsuck as long as he can and try and improve his conditioning so he can be of some use to Contador in July.

Di Luca has the best chance of taking the lead, but so far Menchov has stuck to him like glue. He has great acceleration on the climb and if he can make a couple of quick solid attacks on monday and wednesday, he may be able to break Menchov. He also needs to stop swatting at fans and put all his energy into going forward.

Menchov is looking so strong both climbing and time trialling, he is sitting pretty for the win. Wheel suck di Luca like no tomorrow while limiting losses to Sastre/Pellizotti, then add to his lead on the final TT.

 

[Leopejo]

Basso up til now has not used good tactics and/or does not have the conditioning to back them up. He needs to try and break the others on the steeper climbs so Pellizotti has a fighting chance, though I don't see either being able to get away from the leaders for long.

Kudos to Liquigas for today. They really put the hammer down. We'll see if it will yield results. For sure we have to thank Liquigas for the most spectacular racing so far (Alpe di Siusi and today).

Leipheimer is done.

<Twitter alert>

That was Africa hot! Already exploded and tomorrow is the hard day! Basso put on a show & made it harder than anyone expected

</Twitter alert>

 

[BroDeal]

A
Menchov is looking so strong both climbing and time trialling, he is sitting pretty for the win. Wheel suck di Luca like no tomorrow while limiting losses to Sastre/Pellizotti, then add to his lead on the final TT.

I think Menchov should grab twenty seconds somewhere just to bury the others no matter what misfortune might befall him during the time trial.

Tactics aside, and once again getting off topic, I find it interesting that the thought of Cadel Evans winning a GT is so awful to some people because of his racing style, yet Levi Leipheimer has a very similar racing style (and doesn't throw tantrums) and no one seems to be complaining about either his racing or the possibility of him winning a GT. I personally think Levi is a much more boring racer than Cadel and he has the personality of a dead fish.

I don't think this is true. Leipheimer gets plenty of flack from fans, about as much as Evans. At least Evans does not have nicknames like Limpet Leipheimer and Levi Lamprey.

 

[jmnikricket]

Kudos to Liquigas for today. They really put the hammer down. We'll see if it will yield results. For sure we have to thank Liquigas for the most spectacular racing so far (Alpe di Siusi and today).

I agree Liquigas has looked super strong. I've been rooting for Basso and Sastre to pull off something miraculous, but after Basso's attack today, my money is on Sastre for the upset.

My analysis of LL would have been the same even before today. Actually today was one of his better days imo, but the climbs weren't nearly as long as tomorrow, and I think we will really see him gapped on the finishing climb.

 

[Rosedale]

I don't think this is true. Leipheimer gets plenty of flack from fans, about as much as Evans. At least Evans does not have nicknames like Limpet Leipheimer and Levi Lamprey.

The best description of Leipheimer was by the cycling correspondent of a Spanish newspaper during last year's Vuelta. He described Leipheimer as being like a piece of discarded chewing gum.

 

[elapid]

At least Evans does not have nicknames like Limpet Leipheimer and Levi Lamprey.

Ha. I hadn't heard these before. Thanks. Makes me feel better that I am not the only one that thinks the same way.

 

[Jasper]

The Dutch speaking often refer to him as 'Sleepheimer', roughly translated as 'Dragheimer'.




How is Levi's history with more or less extreme heat? Does he suffer and lose power, or is he one of those riders that get better with every extra centigrade? I don't know what the weather forecasts for the next few days are, but the heat could be another decisive factor.

 

[franciep10]

The problem with this Giro is that there isn't a worthy winner among the bunch, sure menchov performance has been pretty good, but he basically does the same think like liephiemer. Even Di Luca says that he is happy as most of the firepower isn't here. This race needs top GC riders that will attack instead the Giro which was much more entertaining than the tour last year, is beginning to look like a long drawn out funeral procession, frankly I can't wait until July to see Schleck and contador duel. As for now, Menchov will crack in one of the stages, Di Luca will put on the maglia rosa but he will also crack and I won't be surprised if one of the Liquigas riders go all out tomorrow get closer to the Maglia Rosa. As for Levi he's gonna do his thing limit his losses maybe launch an attack with liquigas, if that happens things might get interesting but I doubt it.

 

[ingsve]

I think Menchov would certainly be a worthy winner. Winning both a mountain stage and a TT so far he has shown some aggression. Di Luca would certainly be a worthy winner too.

I would also say that Basso and Pellizzotti would be worthy winners if they could manage it. They have had a strategy in most difficult stages and if it eventually pays off then they will certainly have earned it.

I would even go so far as to say that if Sastre wins from the position he's in now then he also deserves it because that would mean that he will have to ride very aggresively in the remaining mountains.

If Levi wins it depends entirely on how the win comes. If he wins by all favourites staying together and then he takes it by a second on the GC after the last TT then I'm not sure he deserves but if he races aggresively in the last week then perhaps.

 

[St. Elia]

Bump


I have to say that the worthy winner argument is a lame one. This has been a great race and besides Contador who isn't there? Ok they still but more emphasis on the that other race in July but still the Giro has been great and lots of attacks.

I'm not bothered by Live chocking yesterday and I'm happy to see di luca and basso still attacking, great stuff.

And while I ma not a huge fan of Lance he did do a great job for Levi yesterday and he really look good it could be a real race come july... look forward to it.

 

[Aapjes]

I have to say that the worthy winner argument is a lame one. This has been a great race and besides Contador who isn't there?

Exactly. Menchov has pretty much used the same tactic that Armstrong always used. Stick to your opponents and try to gain time in the TT and on the final climb of a long uphill finish. It is a perfectly valid strategy. Other riders have got different strategies. Di Luca gains time by getting bonus seconds on short uphill finishes. Sastre and Basso try to get away in a long(er) escape. An important part of what makes Grand Tours so interesting is how the different strategies are executed. A rider at no.1 has to be pretty smart to defend his lead, to prevent his opponents from attacking him in turn. An offensive rider has to get the other riders to let him go. I think that Menchov has played this game superbly until now. Letting LPR ride after a break, letting Basso exhaust himself on a failed escape, letting Di Luca ride after Sastre. It was very enjoyable from a tactical perspective.

 

[Angliru]

I think Menchov should grab twenty seconds somewhere just to bury the others no matter what misfortune might befall him during the time trial.



I don't think this is true. Leipheimer gets plenty of flack from fans, about as much as Evans. At least Evans does not have nicknames like Limpet Leipheimer and Levi Lamprey.

To resuse a name I coined a couple of years ago for Evans: He is the Down Under Levi Leipheimer (D.U.L.L.). I think if you read enough of the forums you will see Leipheimer gets as much if not more negative posts about him than Evans. I was a semi-converted supporter after his performances the past 2 years but his shameless blathering this season about "Lance this, and Lance that" and his seeming lack of ambition has caused me to revert back to my old mode of Leipheimer dislike. They are equally boring like twins separated at birth. They have both seemed to read the posts on these forums about their wheel-sucking proclivities and have tried to alter their styles to prove otherwise, occasionally launching the doomed to failure attack as if to show that we're all mistacken all while repeatedly telling the press that they are "limiting my losses till the ITT". As far as in the grand tour scheme of things this strategy has been a resounding failure.

 

[cineteq]

So - what is it going to take to win? What are the strategies going to be?

* Leipheimer: Doesn't seem to have a lot of hope unless Di Luca and Menchov both have bad days. Monday's stage seems like the best one to spring a surprise, perhaps with Liquigas?

- Astana is going to team TT Blockhaus and leave everybody in the dust.

- Di Luca won't be on the final podium.

 

[franciep10]

- Astana is going to team TT Blockhaus and leave everybody in the dust.

- Di Luca won't be on the final podium.

I'm sure that will happen

 

[Zoncolan]

Sastre will attack on Vesuvius and might get a stage win, if Menchov allows him to. Menchov will probably limit his losses with ease, Basso will do OK. Di Luca might crack.
Unless something extreme happens, we already have our podium finishers. Basso in 4th.

 

[Snake8]

The question is not what you think will happen but what are the tactics.

Its pretty obvious what Menchov's strategy should be. His team came up HUGE on Monday, do they have anything left to protect him?

DeLuca needs to attack, doubt his team can do much to shape the race so he sits in and goes all for broke at Blockhaus and Vesuvio pick up some seconds here and there...

The two teams that seem to have the most to gain by blowing the race up are Astana and Liqui and hoping one or all of the top three crack and crack hard like LL did on Monday. Don't really see what either of them has to lose by drilling it all day to Blockhaus. Does Astana still beleive in Leipheimer? If not does LA go for the stage? I could see him trying to get into an early break and only holding back if LL can somehow attack and crack one of the top 3.

Does Liqui have a disaster on their hands if two of their riders finish 4/5? Would Liqui and Astana ever make a deal?

Sastre is in a tougher spot. Does he race for the podium? He'd need most likely three minutes at min. to give himself a cushion in the TT to Mench. Doubt there's a place for him to do that and his team isn't going to split the peleton. I think Sastre rides for the podium and unless soemething crazy happens looks only to defend against the Liqui/Astana boys, count the podium as a victory and look to the TdF to defend his title...

 

[BroDeal]

Armstrong will win one of the mountain stages or maybe the time trial. He is back to his old ways, and Levi's goose is cooked.

 

[Ibanez]

Actually I think Sastre is the one who has a lot to gain from blowing the race apart, Levi doesnt have the legs and has to defend now. Basso looks great but Liquigas also have to look after Pellizotti who is still ahead on GC. Sastre doesn't have an awful lot to lose and seems strong enough to ride away if the race is hard. Doubt Cervelo have the man power though. I dont think there's any toppling Menchov.

Rabo did well on monday, and the remaining stages are nothing like as mountainous throughout so they should be fine. Ten Dam is a beast, I met him at the tour of britain when he rode for Unibet, cool to see that hes now a super super domestique for a GT contender.

We all know Danielson is going to win on vesuvius with a 100k solo break anyway so I don't think there is much need to discuss the matter further.