Jayco al-'Ula and its GreenEdge predecessors

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Interesting to see if Orica ride the new Columbia race in February - Would seem to be a good start to the year for riders.

The Chaves connection does raise that possibility however at 2.1 ranking; only half the teams can be WT level so they'd need to move fast. They have, in the past, send riders to Sth America (San Luis) so its not out of the question but it has been noticeable over the past couple of year that they have moved away from some of the non European races that they used to enter (TOC, Turkey, Alberta, Utah, Langkawi). Will be interesting to see which WT teams take the bait.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Interesting to see if Orica ride the new Columbia race in February - Would seem to be a good start to the year for riders.

The Chaves connection does raise that possibility however at 2.1 ranking; only half the teams can be WT level so they'd need to move fast. They have, in the past, send riders to Sth America (San Luis) so its not out of the question but it has been noticeable over the past couple of year that they have moved away from some of the non European races that they used to enter (TOC, Turkey, Alberta, Utah, Langkawi). Will be interesting to see which WT teams take the bait.

WT teams and their associated development teams aren’t allowed to ride the same races. Too much potential for collusion and conflict of interest.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Interesting to see if Orica ride the new Columbia race in February - Would seem to be a good start to the year for riders.

The Chaves connection does raise that possibility however at 2.1 ranking; only half the teams can be WT level so they'd need to move fast. They have, in the past, send riders to Sth America (San Luis) so its not out of the question but it has been noticeable over the past couple of year that they have moved away from some of the non European races that they used to enter (TOC, Turkey, Alberta, Utah, Langkawi). Will be interesting to see which WT teams take the bait.

WT teams and their associated development teams aren’t allowed to ride the same races. Too much potential for collusion and conflict of interest.

Was referring to the older Chaves

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Interesting to see if Orica ride the new Columbia race in February - Would seem to be a good start to the year for riders.

The Chaves connection does raise that possibility however at 2.1 ranking; only half the teams can be WT level so they'd need to move fast. They have, in the past, send riders to Sth America (San Luis) so its not out of the question but it has been noticeable over the past couple of year that they have moved away from some of the non European races that they used to enter (TOC, Turkey, Alberta, Utah, Langkawi). Will be interesting to see which WT teams take the bait.

WT teams and their associated development teams aren’t allowed to ride the same races. Too much potential for collusion and conflict of interest.

Like the Herald Sun Tour in 2017 ? Orica and the AIS team - They seemed to colloborate at times.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Interesting to see if Orica ride the new Columbia race in February - Would seem to be a good start to the year for riders.

The Chaves connection does raise that possibility however at 2.1 ranking; only half the teams can be WT level so they'd need to move fast. They have, in the past, send riders to Sth America (San Luis) so its not out of the question but it has been noticeable over the past couple of year that they have moved away from some of the non European races that they used to enter (TOC, Turkey, Alberta, Utah, Langkawi). Will be interesting to see which WT teams take the bait.

Seems to be a viable option to do the Colombia race instead of Murcia as a warm up race for the climbers - Could also allow some riders to train at altitude before or after the race.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Interesting to see if Orica ride the new Columbia race in February - Would seem to be a good start to the year for riders.

The Chaves connection does raise that possibility however at 2.1 ranking; only half the teams can be WT level so they'd need to move fast. They have, in the past, send riders to Sth America (San Luis) so its not out of the question but it has been noticeable over the past couple of year that they have moved away from some of the non European races that they used to enter (TOC, Turkey, Alberta, Utah, Langkawi). Will be interesting to see which WT teams take the bait.

WT teams and their associated development teams aren’t allowed to ride the same races. Too much potential for collusion and conflict of interest.

Like the Herald Sun Tour in 2017 ? Orica and the AIS team - They seemed to colloborate at times.

They are two independent squads. Although many of the team normally ride for Mitchelton, they weren’t at the Sun-Tour.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Interesting to see if Orica ride the new Columbia race in February - Would seem to be a good start to the year for riders.

The Chaves connection does raise that possibility however at 2.1 ranking; only half the teams can be WT level so they'd need to move fast. They have, in the past, send riders to Sth America (San Luis) so its not out of the question but it has been noticeable over the past couple of year that they have moved away from some of the non European races that they used to enter (TOC, Turkey, Alberta, Utah, Langkawi). Will be interesting to see which WT teams take the bait.

WT teams and their associated development teams aren’t allowed to ride the same races. Too much potential for collusion and conflict of interest.

Like the Herald Sun Tour in 2017 ? Orica and the AIS team - They seemed to colloborate at times.

They are two independent squads. Although many of the team normally ride for Mitchelton, they weren’t at the Sun-Tour.

Hence my example - Many saw synergies b/w Orica and the AIS team who rode as the Korda Menthol Real Estate team - Actually Hindley, Jenner, Storer and L.Hamilon were also part of the Mitchelton Scott squad in 2017. And add in C.Meyer who rejoins Orica in 2018.

 

[yaco]

Anyway let's start the hype train as it appears Ewan riding the TDF in 2018 - Has three targets - Win a stage, finish a race and hold on for 15+km in the TTT.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Anyway let's start the hype train as it appears Ewan riding the TDF in 2018 - Has three targets - Win a stage, finish a race and hold on for 15+km in the TTT.

Respective percentages of such liklihoods:

Win a stage: 3%
Finish TDF: 0.5%
Finish TTT as part of the team: 0% unless they are so decimated (ala 2015) in first couple of stages that they 'tank' the TTT.

 

[yaco]

So will Orica hold their nerve and send Chaves to the Giro - The Giro and the Vuelta are the two GC objectives for the team - My thoughts are the Giro route is more favourable for Chaves than the TDF route - Let the hype begin for Ewan at the 2018 TDF - Poor DP will have to close his ears for the next 6 months.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

He just needs a few wins at TDU and then hold the form to July.

 

[yaco]

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

Why is it important for him to finish the race? If he wins a stage during the race then he's done his job, can't see the point of dragging his body all the way to Paris if he's tired and won't be competitive on the final stage.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

At some one weekers, your hypothesis can/will play out. At the Giro, its plausible but you must be huffing something mighty strong if you think that its a likely TDF scenario.

Mezgec is very savvy but the big sprinters (and their trains) should all be present. That means that:

1. Mezgec has to be able to find the right train to infiltrate and not be ejected with force. Mezgec IS smart and can probably navigate his way onto that train. Holding it may be another matter and then

2. Ewan needs to be brave enough to hold Mezgec's wheel in amongt "argy bargy" at a level well above anything he has ever experienced. So far in his career, he has shown a major tendency to lose his man's wheel and to back off when it gets physical.

In a straight out bunch sprint against the sprint field that's likely to be present, the odds aren't great. Their best case scenario would be that of a crash taking out at least 40-50% of those contesting and being fortunate enough to avoid it thus ending in a far less "contested" sprint. Whilst its inevitable that we WILL see 1-2 of these during the Tour, being able to avoid the crashes is for the most part a matter of pure luck/good fortune.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

In a clean sprint? Certainly. But how often is a TDF sprint clean? Demare, Bouhanni, Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan will just bludgeon Ewan out of the way. Kittel will steal Ewan’s wheel in the blink of an eye and laugh the whole way to the finish.

Mezgec is a fine leadout man but not a scrapper in the vein of Docker or Kluge. This is what Ewan needs when the argey bargey is on.

As for finishing the race, he’s still only 23. Stage wins are more important than an anonymous ride to Paris.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

In a clean sprint? Certainly. But how often is a TDF sprint clean? Demare, Bouhanni, Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan will just bludgeon Ewan out of the way. Kittel will steal Ewan’s wheel in the blink of an eye and laugh the whole way to the finish.

Mezgec is a fine leadout man but not a scrapper in the vein of Docker or Kluge. This is what Ewan needs when the argey bargey is on.

As for finishing the race, he’s still only 23. Stage wins are more important than an anonymous ride to Paris.

Your clean sprint scenario is predicated on him being in front/or near enough to at the final couple of 100 metres. In that scenario, I would indeed give him a legitmate chance of coming out in front at least once ...... but its a case of him actually "being there" that is the issue.

Fair point that Mezgec is less of a brawler than Kluge, he is however savvier at finding gaps. Again the issue is Ewan holding his wheel; he's proven just as prone to losing Kluge's wheel as he has Mezgec or anyone else. Its also not just the rough stuff from the other sprinters but even moreso the case of what's dished out by the trains beforehand. He's often out of calculations well before it gets down to the final sprint.

As for finishing a GT; I take a middle line. I frankly doubt that he can do so at this point. A stage win would be a nice "selling point" and we need to acknowledge that he WILL be off contract at the end of 2018 .... and Orica really is no longer a viable option for a sprinter of his skills set. Another GT win plus a swag of WT points from some early season wins will be attractive to some teams especially those lower on the totem pole needing the points to WT licence retention. However, sooner or later he will need to show the capacity to finish a TDF at least if he is to be a "marquee sprinter" capable of delivering a win for his team on what is one of the most watched race days of the year (Champs Elysses).

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

Why is it important for him to finish the race? If he wins a stage during the race then he's done his job, can't see the point of dragging his body all the way to Paris if he's tired and won't be competitive on the final stage.

Two reasons

- A fourth year pro should aim to finish a GT.
- To help his team-mates, even though GC is not a priority at the 2018 TDF.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

In a clean sprint? Certainly. But how often is a TDF sprint clean? Demare, Bouhanni, Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan will just bludgeon Ewan out of the way. Kittel will steal Ewan’s wheel in the blink of an eye and laugh the whole way to the finish.

Mezgec is a fine leadout man but not a scrapper in the vein of Docker or Kluge. This is what Ewan needs when the argey bargey is on.

As for finishing the race, he’s still only 23. Stage wins are more important than an anonymous ride to Paris.

Think you are under-rating Mezgec's ability as a lead out rider - He is top drawer - Will add that sprint trains ( as we come to know them in the last 10 years ) were less of a feature in the 2017 TDF - Kittel was winning sprints in the 2017 TDF with one main rider in support in the last 1km - Anyway, Orica's priority at the TDF is to win stages to attract SPONSORS - Or course the Aussie media hype will expect Ewan to win 4 or 5 stages - Finally, I reckon the parcours of the Giro is suitable for Trentin - He can win a stage or two if he's in-form.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

In a clean sprint? Certainly. But how often is a TDF sprint clean? Demare, Bouhanni, Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan will just bludgeon Ewan out of the way. Kittel will steal Ewan’s wheel in the blink of an eye and laugh the whole way to the finish.

Mezgec is a fine leadout man but not a scrapper in the vein of Docker or Kluge. This is what Ewan needs when the argey bargey is on.

As for finishing the race, he’s still only 23. Stage wins are more important than an anonymous ride to Paris.

Think you are under-rating Mezgec's ability as a lead out rider - He is top drawer - Will add that sprint trains ( as we come to know them in the last 10 years ) were less of a feature in the 2017 TDF - Kittel was winning sprints in the 2017 TDF with one main rider in support in the last 1km - Anyway, Orica's priority at the TDF is to win stages to attract SPONSORS - Or course the Aussie media hype will expect Ewan to win 4 or 5 stages - Finally, I reckon the parcours of the Giro is suitable for Trentin - He can win a stage or two if he's in-form.

Mezgec is one of the very best, his ability to spot wheels and gaps is superb. However Ewan needs a wrecking ball for TDF style sprints. Someone in the style of Lancaster, Renshaw, Hondo, Archbold or Fagnini. He doesn’t have the presence in the run in to hold the wheel.

A shame because Ewan has the speed to match anyone but Kittel and a top form Gaviria and Cav.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

In a clean sprint? Certainly. But how often is a TDF sprint clean? Demare, Bouhanni, Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan will just bludgeon Ewan out of the way. Kittel will steal Ewan’s wheel in the blink of an eye and laugh the whole way to the finish.

Mezgec is a fine leadout man but not a scrapper in the vein of Docker or Kluge. This is what Ewan needs when the argey bargey is on.

As for finishing the race, he’s still only 23. Stage wins are more important than an anonymous ride to Paris.

Think you are under-rating Mezgec's ability as a lead out rider - He is top drawer - Will add that sprint trains ( as we come to know them in the last 10 years ) were less of a feature in the 2017 TDF - Kittel was winning sprints in the 2017 TDF with one main rider in support in the last 1km - Anyway, Orica's priority at the TDF is to win stages to attract SPONSORS - Or course the Aussie media hype will expect Ewan to win 4 or 5 stages - Finally, I reckon the parcours of the Giro is suitable for Trentin - He can win a stage or two if he's in-form.

Mezgec is one of the very best, his ability to spot wheels and gaps is superb. However Ewan needs a wrecking ball for TDF style sprints. Someone in the style of Lancaster, Renshaw, Hondo, Archbold or Fagnini. He doesn’t have the presence in the run in to hold the wheel.

A shame because Ewan has the speed to match anyone but Kittel and a top form Gaviria and Cav.

Tend to agree with much of your first para. To take advantage of Mezgec's navigation talents, the sprinters needs to have the physical presence and nerve to be able to hold hold Mezgec's wheel, both of which Ewan lacks. As for a wrecking ball type lead-out; agree to a point but just one of them is still going to be fighting a lone hand against "numbers" from those teams whose prime race focus is their peak sprinter ...... and even then Ewan has to be game enough to hold the wheel.

Ewan's speed ?? Maybe but he can't sustain it for long. His so-called super aero position is not one he can hold for long and can only be employed when he has complete clear air but is a complete non-starter when in traffic/close quarters

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Ewan should be able to win a stage at the TDF - You know that Mezgec will give him at least two gilt edge chances in which he is in prime position - And Ewan must finish this GC.

In a clean sprint? Certainly. But how often is a TDF sprint clean? Demare, Bouhanni, Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan will just bludgeon Ewan out of the way. Kittel will steal Ewan’s wheel in the blink of an eye and laugh the whole way to the finish.

Mezgec is a fine leadout man but not a scrapper in the vein of Docker or Kluge. This is what Ewan needs when the argey bargey is on.

As for finishing the race, he’s still only 23. Stage wins are more important than an anonymous ride to Paris.

Think you are under-rating Mezgec's ability as a lead out rider - He is top drawer - Will add that sprint trains ( as we come to know them in the last 10 years ) were less of a feature in the 2017 TDF - Kittel was winning sprints in the 2017 TDF with one main rider in support in the last 1km - Anyway, Orica's priority at the TDF is to win stages to attract SPONSORS - Or course the Aussie media hype will expect Ewan to win 4 or 5 stages - Finally, I reckon the parcours of the Giro is suitable for Trentin - He can win a stage or two if he's in-form.

Mezgec is one of the very best, his ability to spot wheels and gaps is superb. However Ewan needs a wrecking ball for TDF style sprints. Someone in the style of Lancaster, Renshaw, Hondo, Archbold or Fagnini. He doesn’t have the presence in the run in to hold the wheel.

A shame because Ewan has the speed to match anyone but Kittel and a top form Gaviria and Cav.

Tend to agree with much of your first para. To take advantage of Mezgec's navigation talents, the sprinters needs to have the physical presence and nerve to be able to hold hold Mezgec's wheel, both of which Ewan lacks. As for a wrecking ball type lead-out; agree to a point but just one of them is still going to be fighting a lone hand against "numbers" from those teams whose prime race focus is their peak sprinter ...... and even then Ewan has to be game enough to hold the wheel.

Ewan's speed ?? Maybe but he can't sustain it for long. His so-called super aero position is not one he can hold for long and can only be employed when he has complete clear air but is a complete non-starter when in traffic/close quarters

Rewatch Danilo Hondo and the working over he gave the HTC train in 2010. He not only disrupted the HTC train, he practically had Renshaw leading out Petacchi a couple of times, and did it alone.

 

[yaco]

Interesting to see Mezgec has now won the Slovenian RR, MB and Cyclocross titles in 2017 - He's a versatile rider - Interesting that he has ridden in few cobbled classics in his career.

 

[yaco]

Chaves to ride the Herald Sun Tour to kick off his 2018 campaign - Got information a while ago that one of the Yates could ride the TDU, but doubt this happens now - A bit disappointed that Orica is not riding the new race in Columbia - No Froome at the Herald Sun Tour in 2018 which is no surprise - Waiting for DP to read this news.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Chaves to ride the Herald Sun Tour to kick off his 2018 campaign - Got information a while ago that one of the Yates could ride the TDU, but doubt this happens now - A bit disappointed that Orica is not riding the new race in Columbia - No Froome at the Herald Sun Tour in 2018 which is no surprise - Waiting for DP to read this news.

Can't say I'm overly thrilled to hear it ..... but at least it's a more sensible approach than 2017 and he avoids the circus that would come with riding TDU. An interesting course albeit not exactly made for the little guy; the GOR stage may test he and his team's alertness.

Interesting to see Mezgec has now won the Slovenian RR, MB and Cyclocross titles in 2017 - He's a versatile rider - Interesting that he has ridden in few cobbled classics in his career.

The guy is a quality rider and frankly deserves more opportunities in his own right rather than being just wasting effort in the service of a one trick pony

 

[yaco]

Trevorrow confirmed that Chaves's target for 2018 is the Giro - There will be no change of plan - Seems that Meyer may be the GC rider for the TDU.