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Strange week for Orica. Ewan off form, Haig wasting time being in a break in stage, when stage 4 was the vital stage for GC. Then Cort beating Haig in the climb. Follow this line and Ewan will win stage 5 or 6.
 
On Ewan in GT's, some points which are hard to refute:

*For all their effort and resources, apart from S.Yates' white jersey, Ewan's Giro stage win was Orica's only success across three tours. Unless you've got a Froome or similar, you need some insurance.
*In the Giro he sprinted very well, should have had 2 wins, and could have had more. To say that he is only an outside chance to win is basically not seeing reality.
*In the class of young guns coming through - Gaviria, Bennett, Groenewegen - Ewan is in the mix. Maybe on par with Groenewegen, ahead of Bennett and behind Gaviria. If I had any of them on my books, I'd be taking them to GT's expecting results.
*McEwan at 23 was still an amateur. Was maybe 27 or so when he won on the Champs Elysees. If you want to compare them, look at McEwan winning crits in the Commonwealth Bank Classic and ask yourself if you saw a 12 time tdf stage winner. I certainly didn't.
 
Good post Hegelian. For me its simple. You have 8 riders. Ewan as the sprinter has Mezgec for support, while the GC rider has 2 liuetenants. The remaining three riders play a utility role to help the sprinter and GC rider.
 
Re:

The Hegelian said:
On Ewan in GT's, some points which are hard to refute:

*For all their effort and resources, apart from S.Yates' white jersey, Ewan's Giro stage win was Orica's only success across three tours. Unless you've got a Froome or similar, you need some insurance.
*In the Giro he sprinted very well, should have had 2 wins, and could have had more. To say that he is only an outside chance to win is basically not seeing reality.
*In the class of young guns coming through - Gaviria, Bennett, Groenewegen - Ewan is in the mix. Maybe on par with Groenewegen, ahead of Bennett and behind Gaviria. If I had any of them on my books, I'd be taking them to GT's expecting results.
*McEwan at 23 was still an amateur. Was maybe 27 or so when he won on the Champs Elysees. If you want to compare them, look at McEwan winning crits in the Commonwealth Bank Classic and ask yourself if you saw a 12 time tdf stage winner. I certainly didn't.

A Reply and (partial) Refutation:

Point 1. Yes, a GT stage win can be seen as insurance ... but an awful lot of labour was expended with probably 2/3 of his team "burned out" by 2nd rest day. Is 1 from 8 such a stupendous return on investment ? Orica managed to make a major balls-up of all their GTs this year.

Point 2. He sprinted well on 2 stages; stg 7 which he won and stg1 where he won the bunch kick but like every other sprinter was caught out by the Postlberger ambush. They were outsmarted, end of story. Am struggling to see what other stages he could/should've won; he was caught out by the crosswinds on stg5, committed skill errors on others or got washed away.

Point 3. On results to date, he would probably be no2 behind Gaviria. However, what is his "scope" viz these other contemporaries ? Gaviria looks to have the widest scope with regards to races where he can be competitive. Groenewegen may be less quick in head to head terms but has already demonstrated a capacity to finish a GT; he has also shown competitiveness on cobbles (5th at Dwars), a terrain at which Ewan appears all at sea. Bennett - probably the closest match re relative scope. Other than stage race sprints, where else can Ewan compete ? Hamburg - yes, maybe Frankfurt. Maybe we will get another soft-pedalled Cipressa & Poggio at MSR .... but they tend to be rare. Others are realistically too hard terrain wise with (just) perhaps the exception of Ride London (if soft pedalled).

Taking such a rider to a GT with the expectation of them winning stages ? Absolutely ..... IF that was the prime objective for the team and if so, give them every bit of support possible. However, trying to juggle 2 major objectives (those of a GC podium/high placing plus sprint wins) is becoming more and more untenable and with the reduction in team sizes to 8, now near impossible. If the sprinter was one who had the capacity to free-lance and was someone who had proven mountains survivability; then its perhaps tenable but that description does not fit C.Ewan. He needs to find a team where he WILL be the "main man" and will have the support with lead-outs; his current team (Orica) cannot realistically do so when also harbouring GC aspirations. Many are saying Lotto-Soudal .... it certainly looks a viable option.

Point 4. McEwan didn't hit pro ranks until 24 and didn't start riding road until 18. The pathways for AUS riders were very different 20 years ago to those 15-20 years later. Whilst there is the similarity in lack of stature and being essentially bunch kick men; Ewan lacks both the bike handling skills of McEwan (honed perhaps by his background in BMX) and his daring.
 
I wonder if the issue at stake isn't more connected with Orica over-egging the pudding with GC aspirations.

I think they should definitely build a team around Chaves for at least one, maybe two GT's. But going for 3 GT's overall with three different riders is questionable with the list they have. I'm not convinced the Yates boys have GT podiums in them ~ maybe they should target prestigious week long tours + hilly classics, and then work as climbing doms for Chaves in GT's.

Then you have at least one GT, maybe two where you can have some workhorses for Ewan and see what he can snag. If his improvement from this year to next mirrors last year to this, then I would be penciling in a few quality wins at least. And that's nothing to sneeze at for a team like Orica - better than an 8th overall by a Yatesy.
 
Re:

The Hegelian said:
I wonder if the issue at stake isn't more connected with Orica over-egging the pudding with GC aspirations.

I think they should definitely build a team around Chaves for at least one, maybe two GT's. But going for 3 GT's overall with three different riders is questionable with the list they have. I'm not convinced the Yates boys have GT podiums in them ~ maybe they should target prestigious week long tours + hilly classics, and then work as climbing doms for Chaves in GT's.

Then you have at least one GT, maybe two where you can have some workhorses for Ewan and see what he can snag. If his improvement from this year to next mirrors last year to this, then I would be penciling in a few quality wins at least. And that's nothing to sneeze at for a team like Orica - better than an 8th overall by a Yatesy.

WIth regards to GC aspirations, perhaps they did "over-egg" the optimism but given the results of 2016 they realistically had to "roll the dice". In mitigation, Chaves' injury did throw those plans out the window. Those lower GC top10s are still bringing in bigger points hauls than Ewan's stage win.

Re Yates twins; I'm tending to agree that their GT ceiling may be top 5 but we will know more by August 2018. As is, they both go off contract and it will be highly interesting as to their future (both career trajectory/direction and destination). Could it be that we see a parting of the ways with one staying/the other leaving or both leaving ? Whilst they do appear to have an amicable relationship with Chaves, I'm not convinced that either would settle for a future as his super-domestique.

The factor whom you've conveniently overlooked is Haig. He's already proven that he can ride high GC at one weekers and his 21st in his 2nd ever GT whilst riding support is not to be sneezed at. He's likely to ride super-dom/B option at least at one GT in 2018 and if one or both Yates move on/diversify to hilly classics; its likely he will be the other GC man.

Other than perhaps an incremental improvement in his endurance (he did make the finish of MSR, albeit the most soft pedalled in years); I'm really not seeing any major steps forward. He may be filling out somewhat physically but he still remains outsized/out-powered and out-muscled by the major league sprinters in peak season. Bunch kicks are essentially his one "party trick"; he hasn't the engine to bridge a gap or instigate a move. He can't ride cobbles; most one day classics are too hard terrain-wise. Yes, he can/will win sprints at early season races and at 2nd tier stage races against less than full strength fields. Maybe he can snag a win at a GT but that's far from a given.

Where I see our point of divergance is over whether Orica should bother continuing any real investment in Ewan. I just feel that his brand of sprinter is one that is no longer compatible with the current team direction ...... and especially with the reduction in team sizes at major races. A classics based fast guy ala Trentin (Matthews even) can fit in with these teams ..... and it is hoped Edmondson (who has TT ability and showed cobbles promise) will develop along these lines. A sprinter who is labour intensive such as Ewan .... just isn't.

I feel that Orica hierarchy "fudged" this call in 2016 when they renewed his deal as it WAS quite clear which way the team was heading. Maybe they feared some backlash at "dropping" a young AUS rider but conversely both Ewan & his manager should've been more switched on. Whilst I DO doubt that he will ever be anything more than an upper 2nd tier sprinter; his chances of at least attaining/consolidating that status will be best served at a team that can deliver that level of "investment" over the next 2-3 years. Orica on the other hand needs to see (1) how the Chaves/Yates/Haig GC project continues to play out (2) how their classics teams develop and Ewan is not complimentary to either.
 
Anyway Cort and Keukeliere will be missed. Keukeliere is an iron man who racked up nearly 90 race days, while Cort has continued to improve. Thought it was another bad decision by Orica to send Haig to Guangxi. 76 days is too much for a second year pro. Power should have ridden this race to build up his endurance. Ewan's form was disappointing but was given no favours from his team.
 
Re:

yaco said:
Anyway Cort and Keukeliere will be missed. Keukeliere is an iron man who racked up nearly 90 race days, while Cort has continued to improve. Thought it was another bad decision by Orica to send Haig to Guangxi. 76 days is too much for a second year pro. Power should have ridden this race to build up his endurance. Ewan's form was disappointing but was given no favours from his team.

Thoroughly concur re Keukeleire and Cort. Will be very interesting to see how their new teams work out for them but they are both quality riders.

I would've probably had Haig hang up the bike after Worlds. Power ..... is to all effects a neo-pro. Maybe another race outing may not have done any harm but to date he has only ever shown anything on a one day basis.

Ewan ..... lets face it, the back part of the season doesn't really provide a rider of his limited skills-sets too many prominent race opportunities. Maybe another team may have a somewhat different race schedule that may offer a few more friendly late season outings. Again, something for Mr Bakker to consider over the next 9-10 months.
 
When I hear/read "Cort and Keukeleire" in the same sentence, the first word that springs to my mind is "Jacuzzi"... :p
That was one of the most random things of at least that episode of Backstage Pass... (Even though the stage win itself was actually kinda random...)
 
Re:

yaco said:
I suspect Keukeliere leaving was a combination of riding for a Belgium team and the arrival of Trentin. Nothing to do with money. And Haig will not travel to Australia this summer.

Think that it was something along those lines. The offer of Belgian team plus clear leadership was probably the clincher; money may or may not have been a contributing factor. He may have been hoping that Hayman would be retiring thus leaving him as top dog or joint top dog at Orica with Durbridge (which he would've most likely accepted) but Trentin's signing was a potential complicating factor and LS's offer was the catalyst.

Still, he's always come across as a good guy, a consumate team man and a talented and versatile rider. I honestly wish him well for the future.
 
It seems that with the new arrivals in Trentin, Nieve, Meyer, Bauer and L. Hamilton along with Albasini, Power and Edmondson staying that Orica will go in with 24 riders which seems to be par for the course for WT teams. I suspect this is not enough riders, especially when you factor in injuries and WT races which overlap. Think smart teams will target some WT races which will have diminished fields.
 
Re:

yaco said:
It seems that with the new arrivals in Trentin, Nieve, Meyer, Bauer and L. Hamilton along with Albasini, Power and Edmondson staying that Orica will go in with 24 riders which seems to be par for the course for WT teams. I suspect this is not enough riders, especially when you factor in injuries and WT races which overlap. Think smart teams will target some WT races which will have diminished fields.

Orica currently have 16 riders who have contracts for next year/are confirmed re-signings:

Bewley, Chaves, Durbridge, Ewan, Haig, Hayman, Hepburn, Howson, Impey, Juul-Jensen, Kluge, Kreuziger, Tuft, Verona, Yates X2

5 new signings: Bauer, Hamilton, Meyer, Nieve, Trentin

5 confirmed departures: Cort, Docker, Gerrans, Keukeleire, Plaza

There are currently 5 currently on their books who's futures have not OFFICIALLY been confirmed:

Albasini, Cheung Lok, Edmondson, Mezgec, Power.

If it is the case that Albasini, Edmondson, Mezgec & Power will all be retained then Orica will be going with a list of 25 riders.
 
Reckon teams will struggle with 24 0r 25 riders. Less riders per race but the calendar is still long.

Haig stays in Andorra for the winter. During the snowy periods training is 1hr of cycling indoors and three hours of skiing. I will never understand why the riders dont spend January in Oz and maybe even December.
 
Re:

yaco said:
Reckon teams will struggle with 24 0r 25 riders. Less riders per race but the calendar is still long.

Haig stays in Andorra for the winter. During the snowy periods training is 1hr of cycling indoors and three hours of skiing. I will never understand why the riders dont spend January in Oz and maybe even December.

Some will head to Tenerife for part of that period or southern Spain. Don't know if Orica (or whatever they'll be called) will/does still hold Sth African camps. Don't really see any reason to have ALL the team out here during what can be some punitively hot summers .... and then go have to sharp opposites in certain parts of Europe. Horses for courses; take into account what they are actually accustomed to climate-wise AND what their race schedules for first haf of the season may be. Those racing AUS/M.East races .... certainly have them out in AUS; others = not seeing the reason especially if they are finding their own training blocs in warmer areas/team has other arrangements.

Have zero issue with Haig not making any AUS appearances during AUS summer; in fact I would be very disappointed if any of the GC quartet (yes, I'm including him in amongst Chaves & both Yates) are seen racing in AUS. If there's any PR appearances to be made down here; schedule them for Nov/Dec.
 
Actually many of the team used to participate in the winery ride which dovetailed into a training camp resulting in a ride to Canberra and testing at the AIS.

Sadly few of the riders attend the Winery ride today.
 
Believe the National RR should be the number one target fir Orica in the first two months of the year. Its been four years since they win the title which isnt helped when riders like Scotson and Borbridge won titles. This is more important than GC at TDU.
 
Re:

yaco said:
Believe the National RR should be the number one target fir Orica in the first two months of the year. Its been four years since they win the title which isnt helped when riders like Scotson and Borbridge won titles. This is more important than GC at TDU.

Not sure that I entirely agree. Who, out of their AUS riders, can realistically win it ?

Haig ....... yes, but in the context of his entire season, it's not worth the disruption.

Durbridge ...... possible if he could get into a later move and then be able to ride away from them but very much contingent on who's with him. Might he be more interested in ITT ?

Meyer ...... possible from a break but would need to be one later in the race rather than the early one

Hamilton ..... maybe not out of the question as he may not be marked to the extent of his team mates

Ewan ..... would need Mt Bunninyong to be soft pedalled for all but the last few hundred metres of the final ascent.

Power ..... has been OK at a couple of 2nd tier one dayers in Europe but long odds

Hepburn ..... prob more interested in ITT

Edmondson..... would be a surprise

What you have are a number of possible contenders without any of them being prime contenders with all needing particular contingencies to occur for them to win. Yes, it would be nice if one of them did snag the national title but the world is not going to stop spinning on its axis if this does not occur.
 
Ewan's come 2nd before, there's no reason to suggest he can't win with team support and a hard race. Agree about it not being disastrous if they don't win the RR though, but they do need to be visible at the TDU.

I think Gerrans should be the overwhelming favourite for the RR, so it'll be interesting to see ORS plan around that.
 
Durbridge was by far the strongest rider in the 2017 RR. Only pig headed thinking by the D'S cost him the win. He got in the break, tracked every attack and could have ridden in the last 30km, except he had to sit up and wait for Gerrans. And then we had the most selfish act of 2017 when Gerrans expected Durbridge to bring back Scotson's attack in the last km. An inform Durbridge who can ride his own race is a class above the other riders.

TDU is an interesting dilemma for Orica. Should get at least one stage win through Ewan but do they target GC. An on song Porte is close to unbeatable for GC. Hearing Orica is considering one of the Yates for GÇ, though nothing is set in stone.

One thing Orica needs to do in 2018 is make sure all the GC riders and management are on the same page. There is no need for big public announcements of targets for key riders. Keep it in-house and allow things to unfold.
 
Re:

greenedge said:
Ewan's come 2nd before, there's no reason to suggest he can't win with team support and a hard race. Agree about it not being disastrous if they don't win the RR though, but they do need to be visible at the TDU.

I think Gerrans should be the overwhelming favourite for the RR, so it'll be interesting to see ORS plan around that.

Ewan was runner up in 2015 ..... when Mt Bunninyong was soft pedalled for all bar the final few hundred metres of the final ascent. If Mt Bunninyong is raced hard in the final half of the race then pop goes Caleb !! Dennis and Porte did this in 2016.

Gerrans COULD but will his team prefer other options ?

yaco said:
Durbridge was by far the strongest rider in the 2017 RR. Only pig headed thinking by the D'S cost him the win. He got in the break, tracked every attack and could have ridden in the last 30km, except he had to sit up and wait for Gerrans. And then we had the most selfish act of 2017 when Gerrans expected Durbridge to bring back Scotson's attack in the last km. An inform Durbridge who can ride his own race is a class above the other riders.

TDU is an interesting dilemma for Orica. Should get at least one stage win through Ewan but do they target GC. An on song Porte is close to unbeatable for GC. Hearing Orica is considering one of the Yates for GÇ, though nothing is set in stone.

One thing Orica needs to do in 2018 is make sure all the GC riders and management are on the same page. There is no need for big public announcements of targets for key riders. Keep it in-house and allow things to unfold.

Largely agree re 2017 RR in that Durbridge was extremely strong but was sacrificed for Gerrans. However, to win, he really needs to come to the finish alone as he has no sprint so he needs to be able to break open that gap & that's often easier said than done.

If Orica is sending one of the Yates to TDU then either they are monumentally stupid (M.White HAS proven to be just that during 2017) or both parties know that he will be leaving at the end of the year. In any case; barring misadventure on Porte's part, I thoroughly agree that he will not be beating Porte.

TBH, they should just play the game of "fattening up" Ewan for the transfer market with a nice tasty swag of sprint wins/WT points. If, as I hope, they aren't sending a Yates, then perhaps they can have someone along the lines of Impey/Meyer to ride pseudo GC/took to finish top 10 which in itself will snag some nice WT points.
 
Re:

yaco said:
Think the Meyer option for GC is off the table because of the Commonwealth games. Doubt Ewan will get 4 stages in the 2018 TAU, as Sagan will come better prepared.

Will be interesting as to whether Meyer will ride solely track at CG or whether he will get co-opted for road as well. Will just have to wait and see how GE approach both TDU & Cuddle's Race.

Sagan .... oh, he'll be in reasonable shape but I don't think he's going to be going to any ridiculous lengths just for cheap early season wins. Whilst a strong dose of humility served cold would be most educational for Ewan, he's going to get that anyway when he's benched for almost all the spring classics :twisted: