Jayco al-'Ula and its GreenEdge predecessors

[yaco]

My understanding is Ewan,Hepburn and Hayman are confirmed for the TDU with Bauer and Meyer probables - Unsure of the final 2 positions - Does anyone have an idea.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Trevorrow confirmed that Chaves's target for 2018 is the Giro - There will be no change of plan - Seems that Meyer may be the GC rider for the TDU.

I think it was expected. Hope he finds success in that race. Wish him the best.

So I hear the Herald Sun race is going to be tough this year. Does anybody have the profile of the race?

Thanks.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Trevorrow confirmed that Chaves's target for 2018 is the Giro - There will be no change of plan - Seems that Meyer may be the GC rider for the TDU.

I think it was expected. Hope he finds success in that race. Wish him the best.

So I hear the Herald Sun race is going to be tough this year. Does anybody have the profile of the race?

Thanks.

Saw some basic profiles today which are somewhat flawed and limited - As an overview Stage 2 is 218 kms long with plenty of climbing is the Queen Stage which I feel is similar to the Falls Creek stage from 2017 - Kinglake in Stage 4 is the same as 2017,except for an extra loop - This stage was won by Stannard this year which suggests it's not overly difficult. Will hunt down better profiles in the next few days.

 

[Escarabajo]

Ok. Thanks Yaco.

 

[yaco]

Re:

Ok. Thanks Yaco.

I must apologise as I mixed up some key details

Stage 1 Colac to Warrambool 161km - Going along the Great Ocean Ride should be a sprint stage.
Stage 2 Warrambool to Ballarat 198.6km - Probably a sprint finish but the finish goes through Bunniyong where the National RR is held each January - Bunniyong is a demanding circuit with a small chance of being GC relevant
Stage 3 Mitchelton Winery to Lake Mountain 218km - Lake Mountain climb is 14km at 4.3% - Sting in the tail is the first 4km at 8.8% - A GC Day.
Stage 4 Healesville to Healesville 151 km - Five loops of a 31km circuit which includes the Kinglake climb which is 7.2km at 4.8km - Should be a relevant GC stage.

It's a tough course for this kind of year - Orica and Trek Segafreddo are the two World Tour teams.

Stryder Hells can give more information about the Kinglake stage.

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

Ok. Thanks Yaco.

I must apologise as I mixed up some key details

Stage 1 Colac to Warrambool 161km - Going along the Great Ocean Ride should be a sprint stage.
Stage 2 Warrambool to Ballarat 198.6km - Probably a sprint finish but the finish goes through Bunniyong where the National RR is held each January - Bunniyong is a demanding circuit with a small chance of being GC relevant
Stage 3 Mitchelton Winery to Lake Mountain 218km - Lake Mountain climb is 14km at 4.3% - Sting in the tail is the first 4km at 8.8% - A GC Day.
Stage 4 Healesville to Healesville 151 km - Five loops of a 31km circuit which includes the Kinglake climb which is 7.2km at 4.8km - Should be a relevant GC stage.

It's a tough course for this kind of year - Orica and Trek Segafreddo are the two World Tour teams.

Stryder Hells can give more information about the Kinglake stage.

Stage 1 into Warrnambool along GOR could get interesting if the winds up and they race it.

Good to see they moved the big GC day to stage 3 this year instead of stage 1, Lake Mountain isn't anywhere near as hard as Falls Creek and as has been mentioned it's the first 4 k's that has some bite then it's an easy low geadient climb upto the resort with a couple of downhill sections, it can get pretty hot on Lake Mountain at that time of year and the road melts plus if a hot northerly is blowing then we could see some big gaps.

Again they are going up the easier side of Kinglake but adding the extra lap and it coming the day after the Queen stage could change the way it's raced if the GC is still in play, haven't been up that way in a while so might have to roll up in the next couple of weeks and see what roads are like (any excuse to ride my bike ) it can get sketchy on the Melba Hwy near Castella.

A better circuit race would be doing the Toolangi Loop starting and finishing in Healesville, they used it a couple of years back when Kennaugh won the stage, Myers Creek Rd is a cracking climb and doing that 5 times hurts a heap more than the Glenvale climb (Kinglake).

 

[swuzzlebubble]

No Arthur's Seat again then?

 

[greenedge]

Re:

My understanding is Ewan,Hepburn and Hayman are confirmed for the TDU with Bauer and Meyer probables - Unsure of the final 2 positions - Does anyone have an idea.

I would assume Impey (as a possible GC option/ all-round rider) and one of Kluge or Mezgec to serve as Ewan's leadout man. If not one of those two I would guess for Edmondson or Durbridge. I would prefer for Haig or Howson to be given GC leadership there (or at least in the squad) but ORS must feel confident that Meyer will have a very high peak during the summer.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

My understanding is Ewan,Hepburn and Hayman are confirmed for the TDU with Bauer and Meyer probables - Unsure of the final 2 positions - Does anyone have an idea.

I would assume Impey (as a possible GC option/ all-round rider) and one of Kluge or Mezgec to serve as Ewan's leadout man. If not one of those two I would guess for Edmondson or Durbridge. I would prefer for Haig or Howson to be given GC leadership there (or at least in the squad) but ORS must feel confident that Meyer will have a very high peak during the summer.

Haig won't be seen in AUS this summer. He will most likely get his GC opportunities either as "B option" at certain WT one-weekers or as leader at lower tier WT one-weekers/non WT races. Do not be surprised if he is "option B" at one of this year's GTs.

Impey traditionally does ride TDU. He has ridden top10 GC twice so he is a viable option to hoover up some reasonable WT points but realistically the prime focus will be Ewan snagging some relatively soft stage wins (and WT points). Meyer or Howson could ride reasonable GC if on great form but their best chance would be via being in a break that stays away on an early stage ... not sure that they'd be allowed that leeway.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

My understanding is Ewan,Hepburn and Hayman are confirmed for the TDU with Bauer and Meyer probables - Unsure of the final 2 positions - Does anyone have an idea.

I would assume Impey (as a possible GC option/ all-round rider) and one of Kluge or Mezgec to serve as Ewan's leadout man. If not one of those two I would guess for Edmondson or Durbridge. I would prefer for Haig or Howson to be given GC leadership there (or at least in the squad) but ORS must feel confident that Meyer will have a very high peak during the summer.

Seems Impey and Durbridge are strong possibilities - Howson will be the leader for the Herald Sun Tour, though he did both races in 2017 - Mitchelton Scott took Meyer for a three day stage race in China last weekend which indicates he is riding the TDU - Remember Meyer's track commitments will keep him busy from Feb to Mid April - Haig is staying in Europe and be like Matthews in rarely racing in Australia - My understanding is Mezgec will resume racing in Europe in February - Anyway the Herald Sun Tour will be a good first race for L.Hamilton and possibly a 2018 return for Power.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

My understanding is Ewan,Hepburn and Hayman are confirmed for the TDU with Bauer and Meyer probables - Unsure of the final 2 positions - Does anyone have an idea.

I would assume Impey (as a possible GC option/ all-round rider) and one of Kluge or Mezgec to serve as Ewan's leadout man. If not one of those two I would guess for Edmondson or Durbridge. I would prefer for Haig or Howson to be given GC leadership there (or at least in the squad) but ORS must feel confident that Meyer will have a very high peak during the summer.

Haig won't be seen in AUS this summer. He will most likely get his GC opportunities either as "B option" at certain WT one-weekers or as leader at lower tier WT one-weekers/non WT races. Do not be surprised if he is "option B" at one of this year's GTs.

Impey traditionally does ride TDU. He has ridden top10 GC twice so he is a viable option to hoover up some reasonable WT points but realistically the prime focus will be Ewan snagging some relatively soft stage wins (and WT points). Meyer or Howson could ride reasonable GC if on great form but their best chance would be via being in a break that stays away on an early stage ... not sure that they'd be allowed that leeway.

Realistically GC at the TDU is a low priority - Porte at 90-95% will decimate GC - Better to wait for another day.

 

[yaco]

Is there still talk of Aqua Blue Sport applying for WT status - Seems to be a natural connection for Ewan seeing he is engaged to the owner;s daughter.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

My understanding is Ewan,Hepburn and Hayman are confirmed for the TDU with Bauer and Meyer probables - Unsure of the final 2 positions - Does anyone have an idea.

I would assume Impey (as a possible GC option/ all-round rider) and one of Kluge or Mezgec to serve as Ewan's leadout man. If not one of those two I would guess for Edmondson or Durbridge. I would prefer for Haig or Howson to be given GC leadership there (or at least in the squad) but ORS must feel confident that Meyer will have a very high peak during the summer.

Haig won't be seen in AUS this summer. He will most likely get his GC opportunities either as "B option" at certain WT one-weekers or as leader at lower tier WT one-weekers/non WT races. Do not be surprised if he is "option B" at one of this year's GTs.

Impey traditionally does ride TDU. He has ridden top10 GC twice so he is a viable option to hoover up some reasonable WT points but realistically the prime focus will be Ewan snagging some relatively soft stage wins (and WT points). Meyer or Howson could ride reasonable GC if on great form but their best chance would be via being in a break that stays away on an early stage ... not sure that they'd be allowed that leeway.

Realistically GC at the TDU is a low priority - Porte at 90-95% will decimate GC - Better to wait for another day.

Yes, barring illness or injury, Porte is a prohibitive favourite to win TDU but a high GC finish still means a very nice swag of points.

Is there still talk of Aqua Blue Sport applying for WT status - Seems to be a natural connection for Ewan seeing he is engaged to the owner;s daughter.

All the more reason to fatten him up for market with a nice swag of WT points from soft early season wins before "parking him" when the serious races come around. Hey, if they want to buy out the remainder of his contract ... even better !!

 

[yaco]

Ewan confirmed to ride the 2018 TDF as discussed earlier in the thread - Can win a stage as long as he has Mezgec by his side - There will no big sprint train for Ewan as MS still have GC aspirations, though the Giro and the Vuelta are the two main targets - As discussed earlier, MS is using the TDF as a shopfront to lure potential sponsors - Will add it's important for Ewan to ride French races like PN/Dauphine as he has little experience riding in France.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Ewan confirmed to ride the 2018 TDF as discussed earlier in the thread - Can win a stage as long as he has Mezgec by his side - There will no big sprint train for Ewan as MS still have GC aspirations, though the Giro and the Vuelta are the two main targets - As discussed earlier, MS is using the TDF as a shopfront to lure potential sponsors - Will add it's important for Ewan to ride French races like PN/Dauphine as he has little experience riding in France.

He’ll place well in a couple of sprints but will be blown away by Kittel just like the others.

That’s if Bouhanni/Cav/Demare doesn’t slam Ewan into a traffic island first.

 

[yaco]

You can see it's about sponsorship/marketing hence the decision to make the announcement 7 months before the TDF - In saying that Ewan has a definite chance to win a stage - Agree that an in-form Kittel is definitely faster.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

You can see it's about sponsorship/marketing hence the decision to make the announcement 7 months before the TDF - In saying that Ewan has a definite chance to win a stage - Agree that an in-form Kittel is definitely faster.

Yeah, in form Kittel is the fastest but he has his own issues with being in the right place at the right time to sprint.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Ewan confirmed to ride the 2018 TDF as discussed earlier in the thread - Can win a stage as long as he has Mezgec by his side - There will no big sprint train for Ewan as MS still have GC aspirations, though the Giro and the Vuelta are the two main targets - As discussed earlier, MS is using the TDF as a shopfront to lure potential sponsors - Will add it's important for Ewan to ride French races like PN/Dauphine as he has little experience riding in France.

He’ll place well in a couple of sprints but will be blown away by Kittel just like the others.

That’s if Bouhanni/Cav/Demare doesn’t slam Ewan into a traffic island first.

His most realistic chance of ANY high placing (let alone a win) will be via a crash taking down or delaying a significant quotient of the other sprinters and their trains ...... and he having the sheer luck to avoid it. The realities of TDF sprints are that you will see at least 1-2 such crashes per Tour ..... the intangible element is just WHO will be lucky enough to avoid them on the day.

Otherwise his tendency to back-off/lose his man's wheel when at "close quarters" is likely to see him out of contention in most other sprints despite Mezgec's navigational skills.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

You can see it's about sponsorship/marketing hence the decision to make the announcement 7 months before the TDF - In saying that Ewan has a definite chance to win a stage - Agree that an in-form Kittel is definitely faster.

Yeah, in form Kittel is the fastest but he has his own issues with being in the right place at the right time to sprint.

Maybe... if someone paved over an ant’s nest or speed hump somewhere in the last few kms

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Ewan confirmed to ride the 2018 TDF as discussed earlier in the thread - Can win a stage as long as he has Mezgec by his side - There will no big sprint train for Ewan as MS still have GC aspirations, though the Giro and the Vuelta are the two main targets - As discussed earlier, MS is using the TDF as a shopfront to lure potential sponsors - Will add it's important for Ewan to ride French races like PN/Dauphine as he has little experience riding in France.

He’ll place well in a couple of sprints but will be blown away by Kittel just like the others.

That’s if Bouhanni/Cav/Demare doesn’t slam Ewan into a traffic island first.

His most realistic chance of ANY high placing (let alone a win) will be via a crash taking down or delaying a significant quotient of the other sprinters and their trains ...... and he having the sheer luck to avoid it. The realities of TDF sprints are that you will see at least 1-2 such crashes per Tour ..... the intangible element is just WHO will be lucky enough to avoid them on the day.

Otherwise his tendency to back-off/lose his man's wheel when at "close quarters" is likely to see him out of contention in most other sprints despite Mezgec's navigational skills.

Of course the contradiction is Ewan is riding the TDF for marketing/sponsorship reasons but at the same time, he's unlikely to be at MS in 2019.

When is MS having their team presentation ?

 

[Alexandre B.]

https://twitter.com/OricaScott/status/941597659508498432

Esteban Chaves = Giro & Vuelta
Simon Yates = Giro & Vuelta
Adam Yates = Tour

 

[claude cat]

Yacco picked MS GT intentions in one.

http://www.greenedgecycling.com/news/adam-yates-returns-to-the-tour-de-france-while-chaves-and-simon-yates-double-up-at-the-giro-d-italia-and-vuelta-a-espana

Simon Yates and Chaves Target the Giro / Vuelta
Adam Yates targets the TdF.

 

[yaco]

I am surprised MS released the information so early but it's in line with expectations - MS should be able to get at least one podium from one of the GT's - My understanding is MS thought a podium was more achievable at Vuelta and the Giro, hence the way the riders have been split up - GT riders didn't get the races they wanted in 2017, but all are happy in 2018 - Also add in that A.Yates struggles from August onwards ( if he's done a GT ), so the TDF is a perfect fit - Ewan is the interesting case - Was shocked when he was nominated for the TDF because of the TTT in which he is a deadweight - But once the objectives were explained it makes sense - Have no idea about Trentin - Is he riding the Giro or the TDF ? Apparently Trentin is not your usual Italian who prefers to ride the Giro.

Let me play around with GT teams

Giro

Chaves
S.Yates
Kreuziger
Verona
Tuft
Bewley
Trentin
Kluge



TDF

A.Yates
Nieve
Haig
Ewan
Mezgec
Impey
Hepburn
Juul-Jensen

Vuelta

Chaves
S.Yates
Verona
Power
Tuft
Edmondson
Durbridge
Howson

 

[42x16ss]

No GT for Durbridge?

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

I am surprised MS released the information so early but it's in line with expectations - MS should be able to get at least one podium from one of the GT's - My understanding is MS thought a podium was more achievable at Vuelta and the Giro, hence the way the riders have been split up - GT riders didn't get the races they wanted in 2017, but all are happy in 2018 - Also add in that A.Yates struggles from August onwards ( if he's done a GT ), so the TDF is a perfect fit - Ewan is the interesting case - Was shocked when he was nominated for the TDF because of the TTT in which he is a deadweight - But once the objectives were explained it makes sense - Have no idea about Trentin - Is he riding the Giro or the TDF ? Apparently Trentin is not your usual Italian who prefers to ride the Giro.

Let me play around with GT teams

Giro

Chaves
S.Yates
Kreuziger
Verona
Tuft
Bewley
Trentin
Kluge



TDF

A.Yates
Nieve
Haig
Ewan
Mezgec
Impey
Hepburn
Juul-Jensen

Vuelta

Chaves
S.Yates
Verona
Power
Tuft
Edmondson
Power
Howson

Way too early to be thinking GT line-ups. Puzzling that MS would be showing their cards this early unless there is an element of bluff involved ...... but my estimation of M.White's intelligence considers that somewhat beyond his capabilities given the grand military balls-up he oversaw this year ! Chaves and SY do seem to have a reasonable level of compatibility/ability to co-habit so I have no issue with that call.

Of your line-ups:
- if Chaves at Giro and Vuelta are going to be their main objectives then I most definitely dissent from your selecting Verona. He has shown exactly 3 parts of diddly squat as regards any capacity as a high level climbing domestique let alone produce any results.
- Would select Howson ahead of him for both Giro and Vuelta. In fact, you'd be seriously considering selecting Haig but sending him as pseudo B option at Tour is something I can go with.
- selecting a superannuated engine in Tuft for 2 GTs ? Send him to one, I can go with but I'd prefer the likes of Bewley or Hepburn (both who have excellent relationships with Chaves) to do any "double" as they are younger and better able to back up
- Kluge .... is just a wasted selection. His only utility would be in service to Ewan.
- Power .... has to earn his ticket. As yet, he has given 0 justification for doing so.
- Nieve is somewhat of an X factor. Who will you team him with in lead-up races in order to build up understanding/rapport ? Think he is an interchangable with Kreuziger.