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Green Jersey Winner

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Green Jersey Winner

  • Greipel

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Kittel

    Votes: 1 0.8%

  • Kristoff

    Votes: 20 16.9%

  • Cavendish

    Votes: 15 12.7%

  • Sagan

    Votes: 70 59.3%

  • Degenkolb

    Votes: 6 5.1%

  • Matthews

    Votes: 1 0.8%

  • Demare

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bouhanni

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.2%
  • Total voters
    118
M

MatParker117

Aug 28, 2012
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Who do you think will be in Green in Paris? With Sagan unlikely to be allowed into mountain brakes, Kittel's struggles and Kristoff's likely lack of support it's probably between Degenkolb and Cav. National bias leads me towards a second green jersey for the missle.
 
Eyeballs Out

Eyeballs Out

Jun 19, 2009
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Sagan might be favourite but it's going to be a lot more difficult for him with the new points system and without the support of a full team. It would help him if the top sprinters beat each other in turn and based on what we've seen that might well be the case. If there is a dominant sprinter then the dominant sprinter will win the jersey I think
 
B

barmaher

Oct 2, 2011
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Let's just say there is a "top" sprinter who wins 3 of the Category 1 stages and finishes 2nd in two....assume other one goes to break.

They will get 210 points for that.

And let's say that Sagan gets two 3rd places, two 4th places and a 5th place in those stages.

Sagan will get 92 points for that.

Now let's look at the medium difficulty stages (Mur x 2, cobbles, Rodez, Mende and Gap. Even if Sagan was to get two wins, a second and a third from that, it doesn't net him a massive pile.

Sagan would only get 91 points for that.

So it is likely that Sagan will have to make up around 30 points on the strongest of his adversaries in the intermediates. And given that in this scenario the dominant sprinter may actually go for green, he will be losing points in a lot of scenarios, when Cavendish sprints the intermediate for (say) 5th and Sagan maybe gets 6th.

Of course, if Cav, Kittel and Kristoff share the wins or if Kittel dominates but doesn't go for green, Sagan will be the most likely winner of the jersey. But I would think that Kristoff or Cavendish will win it, not Sagan.
 
M

MatParker117

Aug 28, 2012
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Re:

barmaher said:
Let's just say there is a "top" sprinter who wins 3 of the Category 1 stages and finishes 2nd in two....assume other one goes to break.

They will get 210 points for that.

And let's say that Sagan gets two 3rd places, two 4th places and a 5th place in those stages.

Sagan will get 92 points for that.

Now let's look at the medium difficulty stages (Mur x 2, cobbles, Rodez, Mende and Gap. Even if Sagan was to get two wins, a second and a third from that, it doesn't net him a massive pile.

Sagan would only get 91 points for that.

So it is likely that Sagan will have to make up around 30 points on the strongest of his adversaries in the intermediates. And given that in this scenario the dominant sprinter may actually go for green, he will be losing points in a lot of scenarios, when Cavendish sprints the intermediate for (say) 5th and Sagan maybe gets 6th.

Of course, if Cav, Kittel and Kristoff share the wins or if Kittel dominates but doesn't go for green, Sagan will be the most likely winner of the jersey. But I would think that Kristoff or Cavendish will win it, not Sagan.
Click to expand...

Could easily go all the way to Paris.
 
Eyeballs Out

Eyeballs Out

Jun 19, 2009
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They really need to re-think the intermediate sprints for the points jersey in future because it has become simply a question of taking part or not - the actual result in the intermediate sprint is virtually meaningless

20/17/15/13/11/10/9/8/7/6/5/4/3/2/1 for the first 15 riders

Depends on the size of the break of course but in general I think It would be more interesting if they scrapped the lower points - something along the lines of
20/17/15/13/11/10/8/5 for the first 8 riders

Then at least there is the prospect of a few sprinters missing out (kind of like an elimination race)
 
B

barmaher

Oct 2, 2011
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Yeah I agree. Assuming there is a break of four, beating other riders in the intermediate only gains one point.

So Sagan and Cavendish and Kristoff are sprinting for 11/10/9 points. What is the point in burning one's matches when there is a sprint for 50/30/20 later in the day? Just coast over the line in the front 5 in the bunch and Bob's yer uncle. They are right to have the 20 point incentive for the intermediate. It encourages riders like Sagan to get in the break. But you are correct in saying the points should drop off quicker.
 
M

MADRAZO

Nov 6, 2009
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The new pointsystem would be much more relevant if there were more sprintstages than this year. And also it will even give extra points for Sagan when he likely wins stage 6. Sagan should win this quite easily without bad luck.
 
B

barmaher

Oct 2, 2011
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The more I look at it, the more I think Sagan will struggle to defend his green. I disagree with those that think he will be riding domestique for Contador; nonetheless I think the odds are stacked against him. Even bumping his performance in the Cat 1 stages to a victory instead of his 5th place in my analysis above leaves him more or less level pegging against whoever emerges as top sprinter.
 
42x16ss

42x16ss

May 23, 2009
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Re:

barmaher said:
Yeah I agree. Assuming there is a break of four, beating other riders in the intermediate only gains one point.

So Sagan and Cavendish and Kristoff are sprinting for 11/10/9 points. What is the point in burning one's matches when there is a sprint for 50/30/20 later in the day? Just coast over the line in the front 5 in the bunch and Bob's yer uncle. They are right to have the 20 point incentive for the intermediate. It encourages riders like Sagan to get in the break. But you are correct in saying the points should drop off quicker.
Click to expand...
Yep, maybe something like 20, 12, 8, 4, 2. Remember the day in the '09 Tour when Hushovd went long range on a hilly stage and cleaned up all the intermediates solo? A gutsy move that won him the jersey in Paris.

Until the intermediate points are adjusted there won't be much of that happening...
 
O

orangerider

Nov 16, 2011
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Sagan will take green. He will be super motivated. Needs the palmares whether staying with Olga or using the win to ensure those large paychecks come in from another team next year. Besides, Contador always likes to ride up front during bunch sprints with the main field anyway, so it won't be that much more effort to execute along with Bennati providing the leadout. Doubt he'll get much wins though, but he doesn't need them with that kind of consistency. No, he's not faster than Cavendish but that's okay since Cavendish doesn't show motivation for green - he either wants to win the stage or ends up soft pedaling after realizing he's too far back.
 
A

Asero831

Jan 26, 2014
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Re:

orangerider said:
Sagan will take green. He will be super motivated. Needs the palmares whether staying with Olga or using the win to ensure those large paychecks come in from another team next year. Besides, Contador always likes to ride up front during bunch sprints with the main field anyway, so it won't be that much more effort to execute along with Bennati providing the leadout. Doubt he'll get much wins though, but he doesn't need them with that kind of consistency.
Click to expand...


Will Bennati be part of the TS team?
 
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