Hot racing coming up in Australia

[Alex Simmons/RST]

I'll grant that while operating with the dreaded Man Flu I may have made a bit of a probability calculation error but I don't think you guys have got it right either. I'm much closer than you are...

If you had been correct, then given the actual weather at the race over the last 20 years, how likely is it there will be a race day of 40C or more at any given race?

Here are the actual records of maximum temperatures in Adelaide for each and every day the TDU has been raced since 1999 (except for today's final stage since that max isn't available yet - but it's not going to be 40C+):

Amazingly </sarcasm mode>, the race has not suffered super hots days all that often, but don't let the facts spoil a good misinformation campaign.

 

[stefank]

Re: Re:

What garbage. We saw nothing. When did Impey catch Bernal and McCarthy? No look back at the other places, even as they crossed the line.

I have to agree. This is not a WT broadcast. Just awful!

The shame of it is that there is a broadcaster in Australia (SBS) who does a much better job. But it's all about money as, I suppose, is all professional sport.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

What garbage. We saw nothing. When did Impey catch Bernal and McCarthy? No look back at the other places, even as they crossed the line.

I have to agree. This is not a WT broadcast. Just awful!

The shame of it is that there is a broadcaster in Australia (SBS) who does a much better job. But it's all about money as, I suppose, is all professional sport.

While it was definitely a poor directing/production call, there's a big difference between being a broadcaster that produces and directs the images and simply playing the stream you are provided with, the latter being what SBS does mostly for overseas races. All the WT races in Australia the broadcast provider has been a major commercial network. SBS can't afford to do it.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Nice work out for all - LRP back, but let's wait for June before we get all carried away on his form.

He'll be excellent in June, but July is what matters for him, and that's where he needs to step up.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I'll grant that while operating with the dreaded Man Flu I may have made a bit of a probability calculation error but I don't think you guys have got it right either. I'm much closer than you are...

If you had been correct, then given the actual weather at the race over the last 20 years, how likely is it there will be a race day of 40C or more at any given race?

Here are the actual records of maximum temperatures in Adelaide for each and every day the TDU has been raced since 1999 (except for today's final stage since that max isn't available yet - but it's not going to be 40C+):

Amazingly </sarcasm mode>, the race has not suffered super hots days all that often, but don't let the facts spoil a good misinformation campaign.

Sorry but you are way off. The calculations I presented are correct, there's nothing to discuss. The question you're asking in this post is another calculation which can be solved by calculating the standard deviation.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

I'll grant that while operating with the dreaded Man Flu I may have made a bit of a probability calculation error but I don't think you guys have got it right either. I'm much closer than you are...

If you had been correct, then given the actual weather at the race over the last 20 years, how likely is it there will be a race day of 40C or more at any given race?

Here are the actual records of maximum temperatures in Adelaide for each and every day the TDU has been raced since 1999 (except for today's final stage since that max isn't available yet - but it's not going to be 40C+):

Amazingly </sarcasm mode>, the race has not suffered super hots days all that often, but don't let the facts spoil a good misinformation campaign.

Sorry but you are way off. The calculations I presented are correct, there's nothing to discuss. The question you're asking in this post is another calculation which can be solved by calculating the standard deviation.

Your calculations might be correctly performed but since they don't represent reality then something is wrong.

The actual prevalence of super hot days during the TDU is far less frequent compared with your suggested prediction. 20 years and 112 days of weather data is not an insignificant sample.

A 40C+ day has occurred on just 5/112 days (4.5%) and during 3 of the 20 tours (15%). That's way less frequently than you have suggested.

The average max temp on race days is right on the January average (just marginally higher in fact), so it's not like we have some kind of strange data bias going on.

So what are the chances this represents 20 years of below average temperature anomalies versus incorrect assumptions used in your calculations?

 

[stefank]

Re: Re:

What garbage. We saw nothing. When did Impey catch Bernal and McCarthy? No look back at the other places, even as they crossed the line.

I have to agree. This is not a WT broadcast. Just awful!

The shame of it is that there is a broadcaster in Australia (SBS) who does a much better job. But it's all about money as, I suppose, is all professional sport.

While it was definitely a poor directing/production call, there's a big difference between being a broadcaster that produces and directs the images and simply playing the stream you are provided with, the latter being what SBS does mostly for overseas races. All the WT races in Australia the broadcast provider has been a major commercial network. SBS can't afford to do it.

I can't remember a previous version when we were quite as much largely irrelevant stuff at critical times. An example is yesterday's finish, when we were shown Sagan cruising towards the finish rather than the gaps between the leaders on the road.

 

[Lupi33x]

This race is run on a shoestring budget because no one watches it in Australia. The Australian Open Tennis captures the majority of the attention and when cricket is on the race gets shunted to a secondary low definition channel. You get what you pay for.
If it were staged in and around the Melbourne area you would probably see better coverage as you see with the Cadel Evans race.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

This race is run on a shoestring budget because no one watches it in Australia. The Australian Open Tennis captures the majority of the attention and when cricket is on the race gets shunted to a secondary low definition channel. You get what you pay for.
If it were staged in and around the Melbourne area you would probably see better coverage as you see with the Cadel Evans race.

Shoestring budget? The TDU had a $48 million windfall last year.

It’s one of the most profitable races in the WT after the Tour. Why else would it be on a major commercial station over SBS

The coverage flaws are from a lack of knowledge.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

What garbage. We saw nothing. When did Impey catch Bernal and McCarthy? No look back at the other places, even as they crossed the line.

I have to agree. This is not a WT broadcast. Just awful!

The shame of it is that there is a broadcaster in Australia (SBS) who does a much better job. But it's all about money as, I suppose, is all professional sport.

While it was definitely a poor directing/production call, there's a big difference between being a broadcaster that produces and directs the images and simply playing the stream you are provided with, the latter being what SBS does mostly for overseas races. All the WT races in Australia the broadcast provider has been a major commercial network. SBS can't afford to do it.

I can't remember a previous version when we were quite as much largely irrelevant stuff at critical times. An example is yesterday's finish, when we were shown Sagan cruising towards the finish rather than the gaps between the leaders on the road.

I dunno, it's usually pretty ordinary. We have a tendency to emphasise our recent experience over long faded memories. I prefer to look at actual data (like the TDU is always super hot - when the data shows that to be a furphy or when people complained about the coverage moving from SBS to Nine - yet we got far more of the race shown when the move was made and Gilbert instead of Tomalaris).

They have what 2 motovid bikes, a helicopter and a few fixed cameras? Having one motovid camera assigned to the current race leader in a stage race is hardly a cycle coverage crime.

The mistake was cutting away from the finish line before seeing who came in over the next 20 seconds given they did not have other decent vision to show.

 

[42x16ss]

QS and Giant with best positions

 

[42x16ss]

Greipel in a photo over Ewan

 

[Koronin]

A nice win by Greiple.

For whoever it was that was asking how to tell Astana and Movistar's jersey's apart from the helicopter views. It appears to me that Astana's jersey's a slightly lighter than Movistar's. If you see them together you can tell which is which that way. They are definitely different shades of blue.

 

[yaco]

To end the debate it was the second hottest TDU on record.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Would be hard to move it to the 1st term school holidays as the European races would be starting and the dates move around year to year with Easter

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

I have to agree. This is not a WT broadcast. Just awful!

The shame of it is that there is a broadcaster in Australia (SBS) who does a much better job. But it's all about money as, I suppose, is all professional sport.

While it was definitely a poor directing/production call, there's a big difference between being a broadcaster that produces and directs the images and simply playing the stream you are provided with, the latter being what SBS does mostly for overseas races. All the WT races in Australia the broadcast provider has been a major commercial network. SBS can't afford to do it.

I can't remember a previous version when we were quite as much largely irrelevant stuff at critical times. An example is yesterday's finish, when we were shown Sagan cruising towards the finish rather than the gaps between the leaders on the road.

I dunno, it's usually pretty ordinary. We have a tendency to emphasise our recent experience over long faded memories. I prefer to look at actual data (like the TDU is always super hot - when the data shows that to be a furphy or when people complained about the coverage moving from SBS to Nine - yet we got far more of the race shown when the move was made and Gilbert instead of Tomalaris).

They have what 2 motovid bikes, a helicopter and a few fixed cameras? Having one motovid camera assigned to the current race leader in a stage race is hardly a cycle coverage crime.

The mistake was cutting away from the finish line before seeing who came in over the next 20 seconds given they did not have other decent vision to show.

A lot of the coverage of Porte was from the helicopter. Surely it wouldn't have been that difficult to just pan-out a little bit so we could see what was going behind.
Or, send the moto with the Sagan group up to the people chasing... if you only have two motos, then why waste one of them on a guy who, frankly, isn't that important. Sure, he's the World Champion, and he had the leader's jersey, but in this particular situation he wasn't important.

 

[Robert5091]

http://www.velonews.com/2018/01/news/tour-increases-womens-payout-equal-mens-prize-purse_455303

Race organizers of the Santos Tour Down Under and Santos Women’s Tour Down Under announced on Saturday night that the riders who competed in the 2018 women’s race will receive additional prize money that will put them on par with their male counterparts. The increase in pay comes from the South Australian State Government and will apply to all future events.

South Australian tourism minister Leon Bignell said women’s racers deserve the same prize money as men. “Every winner who got a prize last week, we’re going to send them another check,” Bignell told VeloNews

Good news indeed.

 

[Lupi33x]

Re:

http://www.velonews.com/2018/01/news/tour-increases-womens-payout-equal-mens-prize-purse_455303

Race organizers of the Santos Tour Down Under and Santos Women’s Tour Down Under announced on Saturday night that the riders who competed in the 2018 women’s race will receive additional prize money that will put them on par with their male counterparts. The increase in pay comes from the South Australian State Government and will apply to all future events.

South Australian tourism minister Leon Bignell said women’s racers deserve the same prize money as men. “Every winner who got a prize last week, we’re going to send them another check,” Bignell told VeloNews

Good news indeed.

Chairman Mao approves

 

[yaco]

And the third slowest average speed - Thought it was an excellent race with a variety of stage winners and a surprise GC victory.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

It's a nice gesture.

In context though:

2018 Prizemoney:
Tour Down Under: ~$150k
Australian Open (tennis): $55 Million

 

[Lupi33x]

Re:

It's a nice gesture.

In context though:

2018 Prizemoney:
Tour Down Under: ~$150k
Australian Open (tennis): $55 Million

its all about TV ratings
nobody watches the TDU in Australia except for hardcore fans, which are very few

 

[roundabout]

Re: Re:

I'll grant that while operating with the dreaded Man Flu I may have made a bit of a probability calculation error but I don't think you guys have got it right either. I'm much closer than you are...

If you had been correct, then given the actual weather at the race over the last 20 years, how likely is it there will be a race day of 40C or more at any given race?

Here are the actual records of maximum temperatures in Adelaide for each and every day the TDU has been raced since 1999 (except for today's final stage since that max isn't available yet - but it's not going to be 40C+):

Amazingly </sarcasm mode>, the race has not suffered super hots days all that often, but don't let the facts spoil a good misinformation campaign.

Sorry but you are way off. The calculations I presented are correct, there's nothing to discuss. The question you're asking in this post is another calculation which can be solved by calculating the standard deviation.

Your calculations might be correctly performed but since they don't represent reality then something is wrong.

The actual prevalence of super hot days during the TDU is far less frequent compared with your suggested prediction. 20 years and 112 days of weather data is not an insignificant sample.

A 40C+ day has occurred on just 5/112 days (4.5%) and during 3 of the 20 tours (15%). That's way less frequently than you have suggested.

The average max temp on race days is right on the January average (just marginally higher in fact), so it's not like we have some kind of strange data bias going on.

So what are the chances this represents 20 years of below average temperature anomalies versus incorrect assumptions used in your calculations?

I could be wrong, since I don't do these things for a living, but as I remember it, this

If the premise (2 days in January are "super hot") then the chance of at least one "super hot" day in a 6-day race is (1-(29/31)^6)*100 = 33%.

Should be changed to

If the premise (2 days in January are "super hot") then the chance of one day being "super hot" in a 6-day race is (1-(29/31)^6)*100 = 33%.

If that is the formula used.

Edit: but maybe that was the meaning intended

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

I'll grant that while operating with the dreaded Man Flu I may have made a bit of a probability calculation error but I don't think you guys have got it right either. I'm much closer than you are...

If you had been correct, then given the actual weather at the race over the last 20 years, how likely is it there will be a race day of 40C or more at any given race?

Here are the actual records of maximum temperatures in Adelaide for each and every day the TDU has been raced since 1999 (except for today's final stage since that max isn't available yet - but it's not going to be 40C+):

Sorry mate, but your calculations were dreadful.

Say an average of 2 January days out of 31 are > 40C
Race is 5 days long

(2/31) x (5/31) = a 1% chance of a super hot day occurring during the race.

It doesn't take a genius to spot that with your way of calculating, even a January with an average of 31 days above 40 would yield (31/31)x(5/31) = 5 days with +40°C

With the premises you put forward, the other calculation was correct. In the record, you see that July has the highest Average Number of Days With Temperatures >40 °C (1.8 vs. 0.9 in February or 0.7 in December), so it's just silly to organise a race then. It doesn't promote good racing and it is not healthy. That's the core of the argument.

 

[Valv.Piti]

And the third slowest average speed - Thought it was an excellent race with a variety of stage winners and a surprise GC victory.

If we are holding TDU to such a low standard then yes, it was an excellent race.. I mean, its a incredibly predictable race and its not really more than a preseason friendly in super hot weather that only the Australians really care about. While its great it kicks the action off again, its not really a great race to get me hyped for the upcoming season. I feel bad for the danish commentators who have done 3 hours each night when they could have just done 5 minutes instead.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I'll grant that while operating with the dreaded Man Flu I may have made a bit of a probability calculation error but I don't think you guys have got it right either. I'm much closer than you are...

If you had been correct, then given the actual weather at the race over the last 20 years, how likely is it there will be a race day of 40C or more at any given race?

Here are the actual records of maximum temperatures in Adelaide for each and every day the TDU has been raced since 1999 (except for today's final stage since that max isn't available yet - but it's not going to be 40C+):

Amazingly </sarcasm mode>, the race has not suffered super hots days all that often, but don't let the facts spoil a good misinformation campaign.

Sorry but you are way off. The calculations I presented are correct, there's nothing to discuss. The question you're asking in this post is another calculation which can be solved by calculating the standard deviation.

Your calculations might be correctly performed but since they don't represent reality then something is wrong.

The actual prevalence of super hot days during the TDU is far less frequent compared with your suggested prediction. 20 years and 112 days of weather data is not an insignificant sample.

A 40C+ day has occurred on just 5/112 days (4.5%) and during 3 of the 20 tours (15%). That's way less frequently than you have suggested.

The average max temp on race days is right on the January average (just marginally higher in fact), so it's not like we have some kind of strange data bias going on.

So what are the chances this represents 20 years of below average temperature anomalies versus incorrect assumptions used in your calculations?

I could be wrong, since I don't do these things for a living, but as I remember it, this

If the premise (2 days in January are "super hot") then the chance of at least one "super hot" day in a 6-day race is (1-(29/31)^6)*100 = 33%.

Should be changed to

If the premise (2 days in January are "super hot") then the chance of one day being "super hot" in a 6-day race is (1-(29/31)^6)*100 = 33%.

If that is the formula used.

Edit: but maybe that was the meaning intended

No, what you're describing here is the likelyhood of exactly one day being super hot - not the likelyhood of at least one day being super hot.

If you want to calculate the probability of at least one day being super hot, then my calculation is correct. If you want to calculate the probability of exactly one day being super hot, you have to use binomial distribution.

With the premise presented (ie 2/31 chance of a day in January being super hot) you get the following:

Chance of 0 days being super hot: 67%
Chance of 1 day being super hot: 27,8%
Chance of 2 days being super hot: 4,8%
Chance of 3 days being super hot: 0,44%
Chance of 4 days being super hot: 0,023%
Chance of 5 days being super hot: 0,00063%
Chance of 6 days being super hot: 0,00000072%

Adding up these numbers you get 33% of at least one day being super hot (or you could just substract 67% (the chance of 0 days being super hot) from 100%.