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Re: Re:

Alex Simmons/RST said:
Jagartrott said:
You have to look at the mean maximum high, which is above 41°C.
Why?

All you are doing is choosing the peaks of the maximums and asserting this represents normal conditions, when it doesn't. Normal conditions for January are better represented by the average maximum temp.

Can it get really hot? Sure, but equally it can be really pleasant, if not quite cool in the mornings in the hills.

Here is January so far this year in Adelaide:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW5001.latest.shtml

Of the 18 days: 4 were above 30C and 2 above 40C. Most of the rest, i.e. 2/3rds of the days so far, were well under 30C and quite pleasant conditions.

Weather fluctuates, that's normal, so occasionally the race will coincide with hot conditions, but more commonly it will coincide with fairly pleasant conditions because that's the mean.
The mean maximum temperature is a more reasonable indication of the extreme you can expect in a week-long race. It's the peaks that are important to the riders, not the mean. Your sample goes along with that quite nicely: the 2 days above 40 are what matters most.
 
Re: Re:

Jagartrott said:
Alex Simmons/RST said:
Jagartrott said:
You have to look at the mean maximum high, which is above 41°C.
Why?

All you are doing is choosing the peaks of the maximums and asserting this represents normal conditions, when it doesn't. Normal conditions for January are better represented by the average maximum temp.

Can it get really hot? Sure, but equally it can be really pleasant, if not quite cool in the mornings in the hills.

Here is January so far this year in Adelaide:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW5001.latest.shtml

Of the 18 days: 4 were above 30C and 2 above 40C. Most of the rest, i.e. 2/3rds of the days so far, were well under 30C and quite pleasant conditions.

Weather fluctuates, that's normal, so occasionally the race will coincide with hot conditions, but more commonly it will coincide with fairly pleasant conditions because that's the mean.
The mean maximum temperature is a more reasonable indication of the extreme you can expect in a week-long race. It's the peaks that are important to the riders, not the mean. Your sample goes along with that quite nicely: the 2 days above 40 are what matters most.

OK, let's go with your preference and work out the probabilities.

The probability of having a >40C day during the race is the probability of such a hot day occurring during January times the proportion of the month the race takes place.

Say an average of 2 January days out of 31 are > 40C
Race is 5 days long

(2/31) x (5/31) = a 1% chance of a super hot day occurring during the race.

I'd hardly call a 1 in 100 risk of a super hot day a reason to not hold the race at that time of year in that location. Especially when the way the race is structured (often uses circuits) usually give organisers the option to shorten and change start times without major logistical challenge.
 
Re: Re:

Alex Simmons/RST said:
Jagartrott said:
Alex Simmons/RST said:
Jagartrott said:
You have to look at the mean maximum high, which is above 41°C.
Why?

All you are doing is choosing the peaks of the maximums and asserting this represents normal conditions, when it doesn't. Normal conditions for January are better represented by the average maximum temp.

Can it get really hot? Sure, but equally it can be really pleasant, if not quite cool in the mornings in the hills.

Here is January so far this year in Adelaide:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW5001.latest.shtml

Of the 18 days: 4 were above 30C and 2 above 40C. Most of the rest, i.e. 2/3rds of the days so far, were well under 30C and quite pleasant conditions.

Weather fluctuates, that's normal, so occasionally the race will coincide with hot conditions, but more commonly it will coincide with fairly pleasant conditions because that's the mean.
The mean maximum temperature is a more reasonable indication of the extreme you can expect in a week-long race. It's the peaks that are important to the riders, not the mean. Your sample goes along with that quite nicely: the 2 days above 40 are what matters most.

OK, let's go with your preference and work out the probabilities.

The probability of having a >40C day during the race is the probability of such a hot day occurring during January times the proportion of the month the race takes place.

Say an average of 2 January days out of 31 are > 40C
Race is 5 days long

(2/31) x (5/31) = a 1% chance of a super hot day occurring during the race.

I'd hardly call a 1 in 100 risk of a super hot day a reason to not hold the race at that time of year in that location. Especially when the way the race is structured (often uses circuits) usually give organisers the option to shorten and change start times without major logistical challenge.

Maths very wrong there mate, even without challenging your data, or mentioning that it is a 6 day race.
Chances of day 1 of the race being one of the very hot days = 2/31
chance of day 2 being a VHD, if day 1 wasn't, = 2/30
Chance of day 3 being a VHD, if days 1&2 weren't, = 2/29

Continue that, you get 35% chance, more than 1 in 3, chance of at least one VHD, among 5.

If there was an expectation of 3 VHDs in the month, and we allow for 6 race days, then it goes up to 63%
 
Re: Re:

Alex Simmons/RST said:
Jagartrott said:
Alex Simmons/RST said:
Jagartrott said:
You have to look at the mean maximum high, which is above 41°C.
Why?

All you are doing is choosing the peaks of the maximums and asserting this represents normal conditions, when it doesn't. Normal conditions for January are better represented by the average maximum temp.

Can it get really hot? Sure, but equally it can be really pleasant, if not quite cool in the mornings in the hills.

Here is January so far this year in Adelaide:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW5001.latest.shtml

Of the 18 days: 4 were above 30C and 2 above 40C. Most of the rest, i.e. 2/3rds of the days so far, were well under 30C and quite pleasant conditions.

Weather fluctuates, that's normal, so occasionally the race will coincide with hot conditions, but more commonly it will coincide with fairly pleasant conditions because that's the mean.
The mean maximum temperature is a more reasonable indication of the extreme you can expect in a week-long race. It's the peaks that are important to the riders, not the mean. Your sample goes along with that quite nicely: the 2 days above 40 are what matters most.

OK, let's go with your preference and work out the probabilities.

The probability of having a >40C day during the race is the probability of such a hot day occurring during January times the proportion of the month the race takes place.

Say an average of 2 January days out of 31 are > 40C
Race is 5 days long

(2/31) x (5/31) = a 1% chance of a super hot day occurring during the race.

I'd hardly call a 1 in 100 risk of a super hot day a reason to not hold the race at that time of year in that location. Especially when the way the race is structured (often uses circuits) usually give organisers the option to shorten and change start times without major logistical challenge.
That's some math right there. If the premise (2 days in January are "super hot") then the chance of at least one "super hot" day in a 6-day race is (1-(29/31)^6)*100 = 33%.

Edit: The post above mine isn't correct either. If the premise is 3 "super hot" days, the calculation is (1-(28/31)^6)*100 = 45,7%
 
One the conditions, they wherent ideal but you could still race, a few riders did suffer badly, but some didn;t and coped. When Oman was stopped it was safety issue, with flats from heat on road, and even then some riders will wanted ride so you can't please all.

Impey was superb smart racing, but yeah the head wind really played into his hands, without it Bernal and others like him break Impey
 
Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
jaylew said:
Velolover2 said:
Porte was a bit "worse" than I excepted. Or it was Impey who almost did better than Rohan in 2015.
I think it was mostly due to the headwind. Impey said he stayed in the wheels until the very end and then sprinted to the finish

Yeah, it’s highly unlikely that Impey could have beaten those guys on sheer climbing legs. He was smarter.

Porte couldn't have done anything else. He just couldn't open the gap to the usual size. Impey has been around for quite a while and rode a smart race as expected.
 

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