Paris - Roubaix 2024, one day monument, April 7

[Dreginald]

Who do you all think will win Paris Roubaix? MVDP seemed cooked at the end of Ronde and I am wondering if he can pull off the double. Personally I think he probably wins but wouldn’t be surprised if someone comes out of the woodwork. Kung (+4000), Tarling (+3500) or Politt (+6000) have any chance?

 

[Potomac]

Kung?
Unless PR is a time trial this year.

 

[Netserk]

Who do you all think will win Paris Roubaix? MVDP seemed cooked at the end of Ronde and I am wondering if he can pull off the double. Personally I think he probably wins but wouldn’t be surprised if someone comes out of the woodwork. Kung (+4000), Tarling (+3500) or Politt (+6000) have any chance?

You can make a poll for the thread.

 

[Dreginald]

You can make a poll for the thread.

Who else to add? Sheehan?

 

[Barkintheeye]

It looks like it’s going to be a wet race and if so MVDP must be the absolute favorite. Exactly as Koppenberg killed off the whole competition so will Arenberg and some of the other more difficult sectors. A few riders have the power to challenge Van der Poel but none have the skills on wet slippery cobbles. If dry then some might have a chance but still small…

 

[Volderke]

Riders to keep an eye on:
- anyone in a breakaway e.g. Belgian or N-French (often local) riders like Van Lerberghe, Van Asbroeck, Van Moer,...
- a big group of favourites and sub-favourites (those will have a bigger chance playing a role if they are allowed in the breakaway or if they survive and are allowed to go up the road) like Rex, Naesen, Walscheid, Naesen, Pedersen, Mozzato, Politt, Sheffield, Tarling, Lampaert, Trentin, Turner, Degenkolb,... Curious to see what Merlier, Milan and Wellens can do.
- the obvious top favourite, MvdP, and his side-kick who I consider the second favourite: Philipsen.
The fact that Philipsen is in MvdP's team, makes him the only rider not being chased by MvdP, which is an amazing advantage.

 

[topcat]

Riders to keep an eye on:
- anyone in a breakaway e.g. Belgian or N-French (often local) riders like Van Lerberghe, Van Asbroeck, Van Moer,...
- a big group of favourites and sub-favourites (those will have a bigger chance playing a role if they are allowed in the breakaway or if they survive and are allowed to go up the road) like Rex, Naesen, Walscheid, Naesen, Pedersen, Mozzato, Politt, Sheffield, Tarling, Lampaert, Trentin, Turner, Degenkolb,... Curious to see what Merlier, Milan and Wellens can do.
- the obvious top favourite, MvdP, and his side-kick who I consider the second favourite: Philipsen.
The fact that Philipsen is in MvdP's team, makes him the only rider not being chased by MvdP, which is an amazing advantage.

So Naesen has double the chances of anyone else. Off to bet the wife's half of the house on him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The most beautiful race in cycling season. 3 hours of pure joy are waiting for us with the most iconic finish, the old velodrome. Great memories of Tommeke, Cancellara and probably the race that delivers the most unexpected winners.
When I want to show why cycling is beautiful, I don't explain, I just invite people to see the Hell of the North! Bring hell (rain please) on sunday guys!!

 

[repre]

So Naesen has double the chances of anyone else. Off to bet the wife's half of the house on him.

It's Oliver and Lawrence, so no))

 

[QueenStagiaire]

It's Oliver and Lawrence, so no))

If Lawrence has a chance then we can also mention Boonen and Cancellara as favorites because they‘re also retired.

 

[topcat]

It's Oliver and Lawrence, so no))

It'll still be Naesen.
Is Lawrence in the shadow of his brother? Oliver was a fine rider, but I haven't seen much from him for a few years.

 

[proffate]

better poll would be who has the second best chance of winning. I obviously can't vote for anyone besides MVDP as most likely to win.

 

[hayneplane]

Usually the early break sees at least one member stay the course and nab a top 10 finish. With the likely wet conditions I would think this would become even more likely as they will be able to escape the chaos of the big bunch rushing into each early sector causing compressions and crashes.

The fatigue from a brutal edition of Flanders makes this race even harder to call beyond the expected MVDP win.

 

[Brullnux]

I'm going to go against the grain – I hope it's dry, as I think that will make the race more entertaining. I might be wrong, but rain would hugely favour Van der Poel, both because of XC skills and also if it becomes another race of attrition I struggle to see past Mathieu. A dry race imo, evens the playing field somewhat and might make it all a bit more tactical, with a lot of different moves

 

[Volderke]

It'll still be Naesen.
Is Lawrence in the shadow of his brother? Oliver was a fine rider, but I haven't seen much from him for a few years.

Oliver was 4th in Omloop, 11th in GW and 7th in RVV last Sunday and one of the strongest in his group leading the chase. He should be excellent in Roubaix but it hasn't shown for several reasons. I feel he's more or less back where he lost it (in the corona years). The competition ofcourse has improved but he's still a solid cobbled-classics rider.
I had him twice in my list as I was thinking of separating sub-favourites from favourites (besides the one and only top favourite) and wasn't sure where to place Naesen and some other riders. Every year, you see one or several strong riders having an excellent race in PR, but it's hard to predict who will last the longest.

 

[Taxus4a]

Who do you all think will win Paris Roubaix? MVDP seemed cooked at the end of Ronde and I am wondering if he can pull off the double. Personally I think he probably wins but wouldn’t be surprised if someone comes out of the woodwork. Kung (+4000), Tarling (+3500) or Politt (+6000) have any chance?

His rivals were similar...
He can do de double, of course, he need luck, as everybody, and the race is even more selective once they pass Arenberg. It is the big favourite, but this time he will have a more serious rival in Pedersen and I think he will be at a similar level.

 

[Landeirovic]

Bjerg is my man for sunday!

 

[Winnen]

Pedersen always shows up in bad weather. He will be a strong challenger for MvdP.

 

[sam6]

I'm going to go against the grain – I hope it's dry, as I think that will make the race more entertaining. I might be wrong, but rain would hugely favour Van der Poel, both because of XC skills and also if it becomes another race of attrition I struggle to see past Mathieu. A dry race imo, evens the playing field somewhat and might make it all a bit more tactical, with a lot of different moves

Perhaps, but during the only wet Paris-Roubaix he has raced MVDP was third and got outsprinted by Florian Vermeersch and Sonny Colbrelli

Maybe wet cobbles don't suit him as much as you would think

 

[Sciatic]

better poll would be who has the second best chance of winning. I obviously can't vote for anyone besides MVDP as most likely to win.

When there’s an absolute favorite I don’t vote for them in the poll. It’s not like there’s money on it, so I want the challenge of picking the best outside chance.

 

[Dreginald]

Riders to keep an eye on:
- anyone in a breakaway e.g. Belgian or N-French (often local) riders like Van Lerberghe, Van Asbroeck, Van Moer,...
- a big group of favourites and sub-favourites (those will have a bigger chance playing a role if they are allowed in the breakaway or if they survive and are allowed to go up the road) like Rex, Naesen, Walscheid, Naesen, Pedersen, Mozzato, Politt, Sheffield, Tarling, Lampaert, Trentin, Turner, Degenkolb,... Curious to see what Merlier, Milan and Wellens can do.
- the obvious top favourite, MvdP, and his side-kick who I consider the second favourite: Philipsen.
The fact that Philipsen is in MvdP's team, makes him the only rider not being chased by MvdP, which is an amazing advantage.

Do you think Philipsen will go up the road in a break though?

 

[Ricco']

Perhaps, but during the only wet Paris-Roubaix he has raced MVDP was third and got outsprinted by Florian Vermeersch and Sonny Colbrelli

Maybe wet cobbles don't suit him as much as you would think

That was back crippled MVDP, who after crashing in Tokyo was sidelined by quite some time and without proper preparation did two 250km attrition races in consecutive weekends (Worlds and Roubaix).

 

[Potomac]

I've jinxed Jorgenson each time I picked him, so for this race MVDP

 

[jono]

Perhaps, but during the only wet Paris-Roubaix he has raced MVDP was third and got outsprinted by Florian Vermeersch and Sonny Colbrelli

Maybe wet cobbles don't suit him as much as you would think

It's possible, although autumn 2021 was probably the low point of Mathieu's form and health struggles of recent years. Returning from his Olympics crash his road results were pretty poor, and following Roubaix his cross season lasted all of 1.5 races.

I don't think Mathieu will be put off by the rain. Cold and rain, perhaps, but the forecast does not look particularly cold for the weekend.

 

[Dreginald]

It's possible, although autumn 2021 was probably the low point of Mathieu's form and health struggles of recent years. Returning from his Olympics crash his road results were pretty poor, and following Roubaix his cross season lasted all of 1.5 races.

I don't think Mathieu will be put off by the rain. Cold and rain, perhaps, but the forecast does not look particularly cold for the weekend.

Rain set to stop Thursday?