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Paris - Roubaix 2024, one day monument, April 7

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Winner of PR?


  • Total voters
    138
It's possible, although autumn 2021 was probably the low point of Mathieu's form and health struggles of recent years. Returning from his Olympics crash his road results were pretty poor, and following Roubaix his cross season lasted all of 1.5 races.

I don't think Mathieu will be put off by the rain. Cold and rain, perhaps, but the forecast does not look particularly cold for the weekend.
I'm not saying that he will be "put off" just that it might not be as big an advantage as you might think. All the top riders will be reasonably well prepared for riding on cobbles, and it's actually less technical than a race like Strade Bianche when there are descents. Again Colbrelli won the last rainy edition and he had no background in off-road stuff. MVDP will probably win because he has the strongest legs and not because of his CX/MTB background. But, if anything, having rain randomizes it and increases the chances of an upset
 
I'm not saying that he will be "put off" just that it might not be as big an advantage as you might think. All the top riders will be reasonably well prepared for riding on cobbles, and it's actually less technical than a race like Strade Bianche when there are descents. Again Colbrelli won the last rainy edition and he had no background in off-road stuff. MVDP will probably win because he has the strongest legs and not because of his CX/MTB background. But, if anything, having rain randomizes it and increases the chances of an upset
I mostly agree. Rain does increase randomness, and I don't think Mathieu's bike handling skills due to his CX background make him that much faster than anyone else in the rain. Where they do come into play is cornering skills on cobbles and knowing how and when to weight and unweight the bike while putting down power on rough terrain. This can help to avoid crashes and flats, neither of which are completely random.
 
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Do you think Philipsen will go up the road in a break though?
Not really, but like last year, if Philipsen is there in the finale, he could have his chance if mvdp doesn’t get away and is marked heavily. The problem for Philipsen is that nobody wants to work with him and sprint for the win. But his main advantage is that MvdP will not chase him. Any other rider being chased by MvdP has realised it's nearly impossible to get away (there are some exceptions like Pogacar), so Philipsen has that luxury when he's attacking.
 
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- a big group of favourites and sub-favourites (those will have a bigger chance playing a role if they are allowed in the breakaway or if they survive and are allowed to go up the road) like Rex, Naesen, Walscheid, Naesen, Pedersen, Mozzato, Politt, Sheffield, Tarling, Lampaert, Trentin, Turner, Degenkolb,... Curious to see what Merlier, Milan and Wellens can do.
It's about time in PR that there is a big breakway consisting of some of the semi favorites. Küng should be on the top of the list going for a such a breakway. Perhaps a UAE rider like Bjerg (or Politt), Naesen, Rex, Asgreen and other.
 
The website I use (Ventusky) has rain in the region on sunday during the race, increasing around 16h00.

Still subject to change tho, as the same website didn't predict rain a few days ago.
It seems Saturday will be windy and (relatively) warm or even hot for mid April, there aren't any trees around and most secteurs will thus be dry. The troubles will be that some (muddy) parts only partly dry up (or at some places, water is still running from the fields on the road).
A wet Roubaix is actually less dangerous than a semi-dry one.
 
Very difficult to get around Philipsen/Alpacin for this year's edition.
Had been a completely different exciting game with 100% fresh WvA and Mads, Visma L-A-B/Lidl-Trek trains.
Edit: My bet is 60% on Philipsen, 30% MvDP, 10% for the rest.
 
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Pedersen always shows up in bad weather. He will be a strong challenger for MvdP.
I don't count in Pedersen for this year's edition. Like in at all.
Although this race suits his moves much, much better compared to his Flanders race, he took a severe nosedive on confidence - to be in the selected group decisive final in P-R with maybe only 90-95% (at best) physical recovery, you have to be there 200% in the head speaking self-confidence for any to compensate in this race.
 
Looks like a very good tailwind on sunday. Will be brutal race if break doesn't goes away fast.
Hope the wind get semi favorites to attack from the gun.
Are Alpacin strong enought if Ineos, Visma, Sudal, Lidl get some decent riders in break?
Dreambreak after 80km of none stop attacks is a break with some of; Neasen, Wright, Affini, Benoot, Lazkano, Milan, Bjerg, Asgreen, Campernats, Petit, Abrahamsen, Sheffield ect.
 
I don't count in Pedersen for this year's edition. Like in at all.
Although this race suits his moves much, much better compared to his Flanders race, he took a severe nosedive on confidence - to be in the selected group decisive final in P-R with maybe only 90-95% (at best) physical recovery, you have to be there 200% in the head speaking self-confidence for any to compensate in this race.
Mads, lacking confidence? That remains to be seen. I think he will try to strongman this WC style, do to much and miss out at the very end.
 
better poll would be who has the second best chance of winning. I obviously can't vote for anyone besides MVDP as most likely to win.
Horse racing often offers (offered? I haven't been for decades) odds on "Win or come second to [a named red-hot favourite]", so maybe we need that in threads. But how many would have gone for Mozzato in such a poll last weekend?
 
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Indeed, their next bet, so why would the odds be more in favour of the next bet?
The best reason I can think off to have Philipsen higher, is simply the fact that MvdP will be very heavily marked. A bit like with Cancellara when JVS won. Or Boonen in RVV when Devolder won.
This scenario ofcourse only makes sense if MvdP can't get rid of others / won't ride with whoever is in his wheel, and given the tail wind, I can't see anything else than a fast race and not many chances for a tactical race.
 

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