Hot racing coming up in Australia

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

I think everybody is discarting Rui Costa for tomorrow stage. The guy was tremendously strong in the beginning of last season and with the changes on the team this might be one of the few oppurtunities he will have to ride for himself in the big world tour stage. I think he deffinetly should be one of the favourites.

We are discounting Costa, yes.
Because UAE have been very clear the leader is Ulissi and everyone else is riding for him.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

I think everybody is discarting Rui Costa for tomorrow stage. The guy was tremendously strong in the beginning of last season and with the changes on the team this might be one of the few oppurtunities he will have to ride for himself in the big world tour stage. I think he deffinetly should be one of the favourites.

We are discounting Costa, yes.
Because UAE have been very clear the leader is Ulissi and everyone else is riding for him.

Neither the history of Lampre/UAE nor the personal history of Costa suggest that such declarations have any real effect.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re:

Why the **** do you organise a race in Australia in the middle of summer?
Same with the Australian Open.

The average summer maximum temp in Adelaide is 29C. Like everywhere, sometimes you get considerable variation.

The TdF is held in the middle of summer. Vuelta starts during Spain's hottest month. Why?

More seriously, the only calendar slot for pros to be in Australia is during our summer. And to bring in the crowds, it's the summer holidays.

Keep in mind the primary purpose of the event is as a tourism promotion venture.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

I think everybody is discarting Rui Costa for tomorrow stage. The guy was tremendously strong in the beginning of last season and with the changes on the team this might be one of the few oppurtunities he will have to ride for himself in the big world tour stage. I think he deffinetly should be one of the favourites.

We are discounting Costa, yes.
Because UAE have been very clear the leader is Ulissi and everyone else is riding for him.

Neither the history of Lampre/UAE nor the personal history of Costa suggest that such declarations have any real effect.

I don't see either the team or the rider as being very selfish. We're not talking about MG and Pascal Richard here.
Besides, he clearly worked for Ulissi two days ago

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Why the **** do you organise a race in Australia in the middle of summer?
Same with the Australian Open.

The average summer maximum temp in Adelaide is 29C. Like everywhere, sometimes you get considerable variation.

The TdF is held in the middle of summer. Vuelta starts during Spain's hottest month. Why?

More seriously, the only calendar slot for pros to be in Australia is during our summer. And to bring in the crowds, it's the summer holidays.

Keep in mind the primary purpose of the event is as a tourism promotion venture.

You have to look at the mean maximum high, which is above 41°C.
The Vuelta being raced earlier than a few years ago is simply stupid - climate wise Vuelta and Giro should switch places. I'd say the TdU could be raced in October, after the worlds and as a link to the Chinese race. Regardless, if you have a reasonable chance of >40°C temperatures, you really shouldn't be organising a race. Roadsides will be largely empty, attacking racing is not likely, and health-wise it's just idiotic.

 

[The Hegelian]

Yeah, October is when the Herald-Sun Tour used to run. If you could click a button and make that the October Australian WT week long stage race it would be ideal. Has a long'ish history + parcours are much more beautiful and interesting too, including some genuine mountains. But I think I say this every year. TDU is what it is - it's turned into a good spirited festive event.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Yeah, October is when the Herald-Sun Tour used to run. If you could click a button and make that the October Australian WT week long stage race it would be ideal. Has a long'ish history + parcours are much more beautiful and interesting too, including some genuine mountains. But I think I say this every year. TDU is what it is - it's turned into a good spirited festive event.

Good to get the bad stuff out of the system in January ! Happy New Year blah blah.........then some fans can spend the rest of the season complaining about Froome and Sky. The Sun Tour is a better race of course but it wouldn't draw the same crowds and have the Adelaide marketing machinery going full time. October would be ideal for the TDU climate wise but not in any other way.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

You have to look at the mean maximum high, which is above 41°C.

Why?

All you are doing is choosing the peaks of the maximums and asserting this represents normal conditions, when it doesn't. Normal conditions for January are better represented by the average maximum temp.

Can it get really hot? Sure, but equally it can be really pleasant, if not quite cool in the mornings in the hills.

Here is January so far this year in Adelaide:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW5001.latest.shtml

Of the 18 days: 4 were above 30C and 2 above 40C. Most of the rest, i.e. 2/3rds of the days so far, were well under 30C and quite pleasant conditions.

Weather fluctuates, that's normal, so occasionally the race will coincide with hot conditions, but more commonly it will coincide with fairly pleasant conditions because that's the mean.

 

[repre]

Re: Re:

You have to look at the mean maximum high, which is above 41°C.

Why?

All you are doing is choosing the peaks of the maximums and asserting this represents normal conditions, when it doesn't. Normal conditions for January are better represented by the average maximum temp.

Can it get really hot? Sure, but equally it can be really pleasant, if not quite cool in the mornings in the hills.

Here is January so far this year in Adelaide:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW5001.latest.shtml

Of the 18 days: 4 were above 30C and 2 above 40C. Most of the rest, i.e. 2/3rds of the days so far, were well under 30C and quite pleasant conditions.

Weather fluctuates, that's normal, so occasionally the race will coincide with hot conditions, but more commonly it will coincide with fairly pleasant conditions because that's the mean.

Man, you're just taking the ground off critics. Not nice)
I am very surprised that high temperature is an issue, because riders chose to ride this race, not forced. If you are feeling bad, then just abandon. Often cycling is a battle of attrition first and foremost.

 

[wirral]

"You have to look at the mean maximum high" @Jagartrott

Please explain the phrase mathematically above using my example figures.
Mon 21 34
Tue 22 34
Wed 23 36
Thu 21 42
Fri 22 39
Sat 21 32
Sun 22 31

What is mean maximum high??

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

So is there anyone who can put up a fight against Porte here? Bernal?

 

[greenedge]

Latour, Bennet, and Ion in my view. Impey and Sagan could remain close enough to still challenge tomorrow as well.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re:

"You have to look at the mean maximum high" @Jagartrott

Please explain the phrase mathematically above using my example figures.
Mon 21 34
Tue 22 34
Wed 23 36
Thu 21 42
Fri 22 39
Sat 21 32
Sun 22 31

What is mean maximum high??

I'll explain:

The average maximum temperature in January is the average of all the maximum temps reached for every day in January. Say for the last 10 years this is the average of the max temp reached for all 310 January days in that decade. In Adelaide that's about 28-29C.

Mean maximum high is the average of the hottest January day for each year over the years in the sample. So for past decade that would be the average of the January max temp in 2009, 2010, ... 2018. That's just a sample of the hottest Jan day each year. In this case of a the past decade that's 10 sample days out of the 310 January days.

The actual records are based on a time period longer than a decade, I was just using that time period to illustrate.

 

[Velolover2]

Since there is a strong headwind on Willunga Hill, I think BMC want to set a really hard pace the first time they hit the climb. They can't just wait for the second lab, It would leave a lot of the puncheurs more fresh to take on Richie.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

So is there anyone who can put up a fight against Porte here? Bernal?

Last year Mccarthy was able to stay up with the other contenders. He came in with the second wave. To me, he seems to be in better shape this year - Still he might just be fighting for second place. I think Rui Costa could prove to be a challenger...

 

[Velolover2]

But a headwind should favor the power climbers with a great TT over the puncheurs. Ion Izagirre and Latour are good bets for second.

I'd say:
1. Porte

2. Latour 11 secs down
3. Ion s/t

4. Bernal 17 secs

5. Bennett 19 secs

Sagan group 26 secs:
6. Sagan
7. McCarty
8. Ullisi
9. Pozzovivo
10. Canty
11. Costa
12. Gesink

 

[Jspear]

You don't think Pozzovivo and Costa can be better than the puncheurs?

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

You don't think Pozzovivo and Costa can be better than the puncheurs?

Pozzovivo is too light if there is a headwind. And Costa isn't what he used to be.

And I consider both to be punchy climbers rather than power climbers like Ion and Latour.

 

[Yingge]

There is of course another rider who is just hanging around, avoiding the Radar, but sits on the same time as Porte et al - and who has won this race in the past - Rohan Dennis.

 

[Jspear]

Anyone got a stream? Tiz ain't working for me....

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Anyone got a stream? Tiz ain't working for me....

http://sebn.me/sebn-5.html

Only a Dutch one.

 

[Velolover2]

And we are hitting Willunga for the first time.

Pretty sure that Thomas De Gendt will be the last man standing from the break.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Anyone got a stream? Tiz ain't working for me....

http://sebn.me/sebn-5.html

Only a Dutch one.

Better than nothing! Thanks.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

And we are hitting Willunga for the first time.

Pretty sure that Thomas De Gendt will be the last man standing from the break.

And as predicted, De Gendt is already alone. He took the most pulls and was still clearly the strongest on the climb.

 

[Velolover2]

Peloton down to 50 riders.

Looking forward to see Oomen in this race. It's his time to shine. He is still young but he has a lot of these random top 8-15 spots. A top 5 today would be nice, otherwise he could become the next Zubeldia. A ninja apprentice.