I know that for most posters here, the question of whether LA doped was settled a long time ago, is beyond argument. But I'm an idiot scientist, for whom almost nothing is certain; most things are a matter of probability.
So my question for all of you is: what is the degree of certainty you have that LA doped? To assess this, I'm putting the question in the form of a bet. If you're right, you win $1000, which, for most people, should be enough to make them willing to make the bet. Your certainty of being right, then, is determined by the amount of money you're willing to risk if you lose.
Here are the categories:
1) Certain beyond any reasonable doubt: You are as certain as you would be if you were on a jury in a murder trial, and voted to convict. Let's say, 99.9% certain. So if you lose, you fork over 1000 x $1000, or $1 million. For the sake of this argument, let's assume you have $1 million—because if you don't, you shouldn't be betting on anything except maybe that the sun will come up tomorrow. Let's also assume that you don't have an enormous amount more than $1 million, so the loss really hurts.
2) Certain beyond most reasonable doubt: you lose $100,000
3) Very certain but not positive: $10,000
4) Preponderance of evidence suggests he doped. $2000-$5000.
5) Even money: $1000
6) Don't think he doped. Anyone in this camp can pick one of the first four categories, with the odds reversed.
On an internet forum, it's easy to make any claim, since there are rarely consequences. But I hope all of you will really try to imagine yourself in this position, and answer as honestly as possible. I'm assuming, of course, that there is some way the truth, one way or the other, comes out in a fashion that makes it undeniably the truth. A confession by LA would serve as proof that he doped. So possibly would certain tests on old samples. I'm not sure at this point what would constitute proof that he didn't, but let's suppose that some such proof could emerge.
I think I would bet $10,000, mostly on the strength of those EPO samples. All that other evidence seems very strong to me, but not strong enough to induce me to risk $100,000 or more.
So my question for all of you is: what is the degree of certainty you have that LA doped? To assess this, I'm putting the question in the form of a bet. If you're right, you win $1000, which, for most people, should be enough to make them willing to make the bet. Your certainty of being right, then, is determined by the amount of money you're willing to risk if you lose.
Here are the categories:
1) Certain beyond any reasonable doubt: You are as certain as you would be if you were on a jury in a murder trial, and voted to convict. Let's say, 99.9% certain. So if you lose, you fork over 1000 x $1000, or $1 million. For the sake of this argument, let's assume you have $1 million—because if you don't, you shouldn't be betting on anything except maybe that the sun will come up tomorrow. Let's also assume that you don't have an enormous amount more than $1 million, so the loss really hurts.
2) Certain beyond most reasonable doubt: you lose $100,000
3) Very certain but not positive: $10,000
4) Preponderance of evidence suggests he doped. $2000-$5000.
5) Even money: $1000
6) Don't think he doped. Anyone in this camp can pick one of the first four categories, with the odds reversed.
On an internet forum, it's easy to make any claim, since there are rarely consequences. But I hope all of you will really try to imagine yourself in this position, and answer as honestly as possible. I'm assuming, of course, that there is some way the truth, one way or the other, comes out in a fashion that makes it undeniably the truth. A confession by LA would serve as proof that he doped. So possibly would certain tests on old samples. I'm not sure at this point what would constitute proof that he didn't, but let's suppose that some such proof could emerge.
I think I would bet $10,000, mostly on the strength of those EPO samples. All that other evidence seems very strong to me, but not strong enough to induce me to risk $100,000 or more.