How good is Contador?

[franciep10]

I believe Kreuziger still has quite a way to go before being considered a serious contender. What has he ever done in a GT?
Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and think that he has great potential. He showed that potential in several week-long stage races, but in a 3-week tour? I'd venture to say that finishing second in last year's Tour in the young riders competition hardly makes you a contender for the mantle of best stage racer in the world.
IMHO, the best Kreuziger can hope for is a top 10 finish.
Cadel's biggest problem at the Tour might not be the lack of support in the mountains, but rather, time losses in the TTT.
Menchov, on the other hand, should have great support in both the mountains with Gesink and Ten Dam and also in the TTT. His biggest problem will be holding the form he had at the Giro.
A. Schleck- ITT's will hurt him, other than that, he should be really strong. Probably will podium.
Sastre is IMHO the only other serious contender outside Astana. He shouldn't be able to repeat, unless they let him go on Ventoux.
Armstrong? No idea. He did appear to be getting stronger as the Giro moved into its third week. Will he give Ferrari a ring? Will even some Ferrari super-cocktail be enough at almost 38, after almost 4 years out? Probably top 10, shouldn't make the podium.
Leipheimer? Not really GT champion material. Possibly top 5.
If anyone else was to break top 5, I'd be hugely surprised.

Now, back to Contador. His win at the Giro last year, with him being under-prepared, showed he's way better than those that were there. At the Vuelta, I think he didn't ride full gas. He is clearly the strongest rider out there. I agree that the race is his to lose, but you have to wonder with LA being there, the scenario Alpe d'Huez has put forward gains credibility. That being said, he really isn't the type of rider that relies that much on teammates to win races for him, so I don't know.

Anyway, looks like we're in for a close race. Especially with the course being set with probability for big gaps before the last ITT and Ventoux being very low.

My top 10:
1. Contador
2. Evans
3. Menchov
4. Sastre
5. A. Schleck
6. Leipheimer
7. Armstrong
8. F. Schleck
9. Rogers
10.Gesink

Pellizotti, V. Efimkin, Kirchen, LL Sanchez, Nibali, Vandevelde, Gerdemann will be waiting to pounce.

I agree with everything except that Gesink will be riding for himself during the tour, he won't be riding in support of menchov. agree with everything else though, and big boat will you stop that we're talking about the actual race.

 

[powderpuff]

Cadel's biggest problem at the Tour might not be the lack of support in the mountains, but rather, time losses in the TTT.

I totally agree with this. I wouldn't be surprised if Cadel comes very close to winning the first ITT because he can't afford to be too far behind come the TTT.

 

[msjett]

I totally agree with this. I wouldn't be surprised if Cadel comes very close to winning the first ITT because he can't afford to be too far behind come the TTT.

I shudder to think about the TTT for Cadel....

 

[39*23t]

they finished 20th in giro lost 1 min 20 in 20km true it will have one mean tt for cadel

 

[Jasper]

But the Tour team won't be the same as the Giro team, and especially for the TTT it looks much better: Evans, Dekker, Lang and Vandenbroeck, that's a whole other league than the Giro squad. Too bad Hoste won't be there, but I think Evans could limit his losses very well.

 

[Bala Verde]

how the team defends the jersey and protects Lance.

They don't defend the jersey, US postal and disco never did. They gave it away as soon as there was an opportunity without looking bad. On top of that, they make friends with some other teams in the peloton when they give the jersey away to some french dude, like Voeckler. I think they are aiming for the yellow jersey on the Ventoux

But the Tour team won't be the same as the Giro team, and especially for the TTT it looks much better: Evans, Dekker, Lang and Vandenbroeck, that's a whole other league than the Giro squad. Too bad Hoste won't be there, but I think Evans could limit his losses very well.

I read that Lang still suffered from injuries sustained in the Dauphine. That would be a loss!

 

[39*23t]

yeah i was looking for something on that plus dekker seems to be going through a loss of form i think van summerin and matti loyld if he gets the green light and of course gilbert

 

[Jasper]

Lang is in for the Tour, according to Redant in Belgian paper Het Nieuwsblad today.

How are Lloyd's TT skills in fact? Vansummeren isn't half bad on the TT bike either, but not the same league as similar domestiques on other squads.

 

[39*23t]

lloyds tt skills are probably slightly better than average better known for his climbing. Lotto actually have quite a few riders that can hammer the flats but leave a lot to be desired when the road goes uphill

 

[BikeCentric]

I believe Kreuziger still has quite a way to go before being considered a serious contender. What has he ever done in a GT?
Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and think that he has great potential. He showed that potential in several week-long stage races, but in a 3-week tour? I'd venture to say that finishing second in last year's Tour in the young riders competition hardly makes you a contender for the mantle of best stage racer in the world.
IMHO, the best Kreuziger can hope for is a top 10 finish.
Cadel's biggest problem at the Tour might not be the lack of support in the mountains, but rather, time losses in the TTT.
Menchov, on the other hand, should have great support in both the mountains with Gesink and Ten Dam and also in the TTT. His biggest problem will be holding the form he had at the Giro.
A. Schleck- ITT's will hurt him, other than that, he should be really strong. Probably will podium.
Sastre is IMHO the only other serious contender outside Astana. He shouldn't be able to repeat, unless they let him go on Ventoux.
Armstrong? No idea. He did appear to be getting stronger as the Giro moved into its third week. Will he give Ferrari a ring? Will even some Ferrari super-cocktail be enough at almost 38, after almost 4 years out? Probably top 10, shouldn't make the podium.
Leipheimer? Not really GT champion material. Possibly top 5.
If anyone else was to break top 5, I'd be hugely surprised.

Now, back to Contador. His win at the Giro last year, with him being under-prepared, showed he's way better than those that were there. At the Vuelta, I think he didn't ride full gas. He is clearly the strongest rider out there. I agree that the race is his to lose, but you have to wonder with LA being there, the scenario Alpe d'Huez has put forward gains credibility. That being said, he really isn't the type of rider that relies that much on teammates to win races for him, so I don't know.

Anyway, looks like we're in for a close race. Especially with the course being set with probability for big gaps before the last ITT and Ventoux being very low.

My top 10:
1. Contador
2. Evans
3. Menchov
4. Sastre
5. A. Schleck
6. Leipheimer
7. Armstrong
8. F. Schleck
9. Rogers
10.Gesink

Pellizotti, V. Efimkin, Kirchen, LL Sanchez, Nibali, Vandevelde, Gerdemann will be waiting to pounce.

I agree with you Zoncolon, Kreuziger hasn't done anything yet, I just think he has potential. Gerdemann too for that matter. All the other riders we've named that I didn't put on my short list I think are known quantities, many of them are quite good of course but I don't think they'll earn the "next great stage racer" mantle.

 

[Jasper]

I'm inclined to say that Monfort will also be hovering around the top 10 spot, with Gesink, Rogers, Kreuziger, Efimkin, Kirchen, Nibali, Gerdemann, and so on.

 

[**Uru**]

I think Contador is a huge talent. Watching the last stage of DL, he was toying with Evans. That was his point. He did not want to win DL but send a message to Evans that he could have easily won if he cared to. Valverde's tap on the shoulder at the top of the climb was probably a thank you for not leaving him in the dust.

That said, I think Armstrong was doing the same thing at the Giro. He showed he was improving in the final week. It was clear that he did not seem to go all out on the final mountain stages or in either time trial. If the TdF comes down to Armstrong and Contador on the final big climb, it will be mano y mano.

 

[Zoncolan]

I think Contador is a huge talent. Watching the last stage of DL, he was toying with Evans. That was his point. He did not want to win DL but send a message to Evans that he could have easily won if he cared to. Valverde's tap on the shoulder at the top of the climb was probably a thank you for not leaving him in the dust.

That said, I think Armstrong was doing the same thing at the Giro. He showed he was improving in the final week. It was clear that he did not seem to go all out on the final mountain stages or in either time trial. If the TdF comes down to Armstrong and Contador on the final big climb, it will be mano y mano.

Contador is a huge talent. He demonstrated that talent very early on and was signed by Manolo Saiz when he was 18.

Was he toying with Evans? I don't think so. I think he was on the limit a lot of the time, and was barely keeping up, especially on Ventoux.
If the Tour comes down to Armstrong and Contador on Ventoux, it would mean that some 5 guys that are stronger riders than Armstrong somehow lost it. Highly unlikely.
If it does happen, however unlikely, the only way Armstrong could win is if he and JB pour AC's blood refill down the toilet.