- Apr 12, 2009
I agree with everything except that Gesink will be riding for himself during the tour, he won't be riding in support of menchov. agree with everything else though, and big boat will you stop that we're talking about the actual race.Zoncolan said:I believe Kreuziger still has quite a way to go before being considered a serious contender. What has he ever done in a GT?
Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and think that he has great potential. He showed that potential in several week-long stage races, but in a 3-week tour? I'd venture to say that finishing second in last year's Tour in the young riders competition hardly makes you a contender for the mantle of best stage racer in the world.
IMHO, the best Kreuziger can hope for is a top 10 finish.
Cadel's biggest problem at the Tour might not be the lack of support in the mountains, but rather, time losses in the TTT.
Menchov, on the other hand, should have great support in both the mountains with Gesink and Ten Dam and also in the TTT. His biggest problem will be holding the form he had at the Giro.
A. Schleck- ITT's will hurt him, other than that, he should be really strong. Probably will podium.
Sastre is IMHO the only other serious contender outside Astana. He shouldn't be able to repeat, unless they let him go on Ventoux.
Armstrong? No idea. He did appear to be getting stronger as the Giro moved into its third week. Will he give Ferrari a ring? Will even some Ferrari super-cocktail be enough at almost 38, after almost 4 years out? Probably top 10, shouldn't make the podium.
Leipheimer? Not really GT champion material. Possibly top 5.
If anyone else was to break top 5, I'd be hugely surprised.
Now, back to Contador. His win at the Giro last year, with him being under-prepared, showed he's way better than those that were there. At the Vuelta, I think he didn't ride full gas. He is clearly the strongest rider out there. I agree that the race is his to lose, but you have to wonder with LA being there, the scenario Alpe d'Huez has put forward gains credibility. That being said, he really isn't the type of rider that relies that much on teammates to win races for him, so I don't know.
Anyway, looks like we're in for a close race. Especially with the course being set with probability for big gaps before the last ITT and Ventoux being very low.
My top 10:
5. A. Schleck
8. F. Schleck
Pellizotti, V. Efimkin, Kirchen, LL Sanchez, Nibali, Vandevelde, Gerdemann will be waiting to pounce.