How many GTs could Contador win?

[jordan5000]

Ever since Contador won the Giro, giving him his 6th GT victory I've wondered how many more he can get, I figure he has at least 4 more years left. If he competes in the Vuelta once, the giro three times and the tour times could he break Merckx's record of 11 GT wins? I think he made it clear that he can win the Giro and while I won't say with ease, he did dominate it and I think he can win two more giro's and a vuelta. That would put him at 9 GT wins, and I think he'll get 2 more victories in the tour, am I being a little bit too optimistic for Contador or could he actually do it? Another interesting thing to note is that the record for GT podiums is 13 (Jaques Antequil) so if he podiums in 3 out of 4 tours, all 3 giros and the vuelta he'd break tie the record with 13. So do you think either of these records can be surpassed?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

depends how long until kelderman hits his prime really

In reality, I'm gonna say maybe 13-15 Gts total.

I reckon he could get 8 tours also. we'll see.

also depends on younger guys emerging also I guess, who knows..

 

[luckyboy]

He will be 29 next year, and I can see him winning the Tour and Vuelta if he participates in both as is expected. Add to that another 2 Tours, maybe even 3 if he concentrates on it.
I think he will only bother with the Giro again is if he misses the Tour and does the Vuelta too like in 2008.

Don't know how he'd do aged 32+ (i.e. if he would decline earlier than some and retire in his early 30s). Later years maybe he'll just do the Vuelta or something. I think he will end up with more Vueltas than Giros anyway.
Something like this could be possible...

Aged 29, 2012 - Tour + Vuelta
Aged 30, 2013 - Tour
Aged 31, 2014 - Giro + Vuelta
Aged 32, 2015 - Tour + Vuelta
Aged 33, 2016 - Tour
Aged 34, 2017 - Vuelta

When I lay it out like that it doesn't look too realistic. I think the least he will retire with will be 6 Tours, 3 Vueltas and 2 Giros.

 

[veganrob]

He will win total of 7 TdF, just because. Probably couple more Vuelta and another Giro.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Ever since Contador won the Giro, giving him his 6th GT victory I've wondered how many more he can get, I figure he has at least 4 more years left. If he competes in the Vuelta once, the giro three times and the tour times could he break Merckx's record of 11 GT wins? I think he made it clear that he can win the Giro and while I won't say with ease, he did dominate it and I think he can win two more giro's and a vuelta. That would put him at 9 GT wins, and I think he'll get 2 more victories in the tour, am I being a little bit too optimistic for Contador or could he actually do it? Another interesting thing to note is that the record for GT podiums is 13 (Jaques Antequil) so if he podiums in 3 out of 4 tours, all 3 giros and the vuelta he'd break tie the record with 13. So do you think either of these records can be surpassed?

Definately. If anyone can he can. And I suspect he will be racing again next season. If he can't race next season that will put a bit of a damper on it.

 

[jordan5000]

Definately. If anyone can he can. And I suspect he will be racing again next season. If he can't race next season that will put a bit of a damper on it.

If he can't race next year or two, his chances are done.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think he could "easily" win two GT's a year.

 

[Maxiton]

As many as he wants (or, two a year ). I think his real problem is those in positions of influence who don't want him to win any, anymore. Seriously.

PS. He will beat both the Merckx record for GT wins and the Anquetil for podiums. If he is allowed to compete, that is, and under the same conditons as everyone else.

 

[Forunculo]

He will win more than 11 GT but no reach 8 Tdf. Now is 28, with 29,30,31,32 and posibly 33 are 5 years to win thing.

 

[SiAp1984]

Depends on the CAS-ruling. If he gets busted, he will not win another GT to his four then-current GTs.

If he doesn't get busted, he of course might well win some more three-week-races. I hope for CAS and choose no record for AC.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Assuming his main target each year remains the Tour, which is a reasonable assumption, he may struggle to beat the record number of GT wins. He's not shown us yet that he can win 2 GTs a year, with one of them being the Tour, and unless he starts winning a couple a year, I think the record is out of reach.

 

[Parrulo]

Assuming his main target each year remains the Tour, which is a reasonable assumption, he may struggle to beat the record number of GT wins. He's not shown us yet that he can win 2 GTs a year, with one of them being the Tour, and unless he starts winning a couple a year, I think the record is out of reach.

i would actually say this year proves that he can do a double. certainly the giro-tour double is very hard to achieve but tour-vuelta double with a good team to protect him in both races i think its pretty much achievable.

don't forget that he smashed the hardest GT in years and then even with a huge amount of bad luck and lack of team support pulled a top 5 at the tour. and if we take the time he lost on the stage 1 massive fall+ TTT he would be around the same time as andy, all this with a pretty messed up knee from the falls.

as for the topic of the thread:

if he is cleared and goes for the tour-vuelta double in the next 2 years( like he has hinted already he would do) he could reach 31 with 10 GT's. so i would say he can beat the record. it will be hard and he will also need some luck(crashes and all that) but its possible.

 

[TeoSheva]

Assuming his main target each year remains the Tour, which is a reasonable assumption, he may struggle to beat the record number of GT wins. He's not shown us yet that he can win 2 GTs a year, with one of them being the Tour, and unless he starts winning a couple a year, I think the record is out of reach.

this one! Tour and Vuelta are too close for the double... and now even Giro+Vuelta is difficult (look this year Vuelta...)

 

[jamiephillips]

Only history will give us the answer. And by the way it's Jacques Anquetil.

 

[Andre.J]

He will win one more TDF and 2 more Vueltas

 

[personal]

He is going to win at least five Tours, one way or another.
But I think he could make iz seven or even eight with some luck and team support.

We probably won't see him riding Giro for years, but he will be riding Vueltas and his grand tour wins could number even more then the record.

 

[Swabian Lass]

There isn't a possibly option or a don't know option so I didn't vote. I think that with a good team and a certain amount of luck, he could potentially break Merckx's record, but I don't think it's a done deal and I wouldn't put money on it. I agree that his target is the Tour and I could see him cranking out 8 Tour wins, however, to reach 11 he's going to have to do the double. I'm not convinced that the Giro/Tour double is achievable. I think that he might do the Tour/Vuelta but even there he'll need luck.

So I guess my option is possibly, but not probably.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Most of you don't seem to take any kind of opposition to him into considaration. Who know's if Contador had beaten Evans this year if he had bin on his best form? Exept of the Giro this year, he never really dominated a GT.
Also the courses were more or less made for a guy like him. A ridicoulus small amount of TT kilometers in general and very very few dead flat TTs.
It's not clear that more TTs won't come back. Hell, if there had been one more long TT in the 2010 edition, Menchov could have won it.

What if Froome (or a similar kind of rider) really is as strong as the Vuelta made him look? And now imaginge 2 long TTs, one of those dead flat (Contador isn't bad at them, but not really good eigther).
What if De Gendt has an absolute GT break through? Or El Bisonte finds fund in cycling, trains very well all season and beats him up the climbs?

It's not that easy.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Most of you don't seem to take any kind of opposition to him into considaration. Who know's if Contador had beaten Evans this year if he had bin on his best form? Exept of the Giro this year, he never really dominated a GT.
Also the courses were more or less made for a guy like him. A ridicoulus small amount of TT kilometers in general and very very few dead flat TTs.
It's not clear that more TTs won't come back. Hell, if there had been one more long TT in the 2010 edition, Menchov could have won it.

What if Froome (or a similar kind of rider) really is as strong as the Vuelta made him look? And now imaginge 2 long TTs, one of those dead flat (Contador isn't bad at them, but not really good eigther).
What if De Gendt has an absolute GT break through? Or El Bisonte finds fund in cycling, trains very well all season and beats him up the climbs?

It's not that easy.

Tour 2009.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Assuming he won't be banned, I think he could be beat both records.

At 33 years old, he can have 16 GT wins, thus 16 GT podiums, and 8 Tour wins.

 

[jencredible]

Assuming he won't be banned, I think he could be beat both records.

At 33 years old, he can have 16 GT wins, thus 16 GT podiums, and 8 Tour wins.

I hope you're fishing because those projections are patently absurd. I don't think breaking Merckx mark is out of the question but very difficult. It would require doubles and I don't think he's willing to do Giro-Vuelta and even Tour-Vuelta would be perhaps too demanding in today's cycling landscape (not sure though, since I haven't seen a credible contended try it recently). Sure he dominated in Giro '11 and Tour '09 but he's also had some bad GTs Tour '10 for instance. I think this assumes he would be on top form every time, which I'm not sure is possible any more given the cleaner fields, weaker domestiques, etc...I'm guessing he'll drop a Tour or two to guys like Andy, Nibali, maybe even Valv or Evans. I don't think he'll get either record, I think the likeliest record to be broken would be Lance's 7 tours

 

[Moncoutie]

Can see him passing 11 wins, assuming he's cleared to race next year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Assuming he won't be banned, I think he could be beat both records.

At 33 years old, he can have 16 GT wins, thus 16 GT podiums, and 8 Tour wins.

I hope you're fishing because those projections are patently absurd. I don't think breaking Merckx mark is out of the question but very difficult. It would require doubles and I don't think he's willing to do Giro-Vuelta and even Tour-Vuelta would be perhaps too demanding in today's cycling landscape (not sure though, since I haven't seen a credible contended try it recently). Sure he dominated in Giro '11 and Tour '09 but he's also had some bad GTs Tour '10 for instance. I think this assumes he would be on top form every time, which I'm not sure is possible any more given the cleaner fields, weaker domestiques, etc...I'm guessing he'll drop a Tour or two to guys like Andy, Nibali, maybe even Valv or Evans. I don't think he'll get either record, I think the likeliest record to be broken would be Lance's 7 tours

No, I was serious. But of course this is the max. The numbers might be a lot lower in the end, but I'm confident he can do the Tour-Vuelta double. So if he does that one 5 times in a row, or a Giro-Tour double instead, he has 16 GT wins.

Oh, and BTW, you think he can get 8 TdF-wins, but also think it's likely he won't win some, how long do you think he keeps on winning GTs?? And he already has 6 GT wins, plus the 5 it would take to break Lance's record, he would be on 11 GT wins, which equals Eddy's record. It is fairly possible he does a double, so he would also break that record.

 

[jordan5000]

I think he could "easily" win two GT's a year.

If one of them is the Vuelta than he could do it without too much trouble, but a Giro-Tour double is very difficult (and I highly doubt he'd tried for a Giro-Vuelta).

 

[jordan5000]

He will win more than 11 GT but no reach 8 Tdf. Now is 28, with 29,30,31,32 and posibly 33 are 5 years to win thing.

Well people here have been saying that he's a better climber (see other thread), so if Armstrong could do it he could too right?