How Many Minutes Will Pogacar Win By?

How Many Minutes Will Pogacar Win By?

  • 0-2 minutes

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 2-4 minutes

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 4-6 minutes

    Votes: 13 17.3%
  • 6-8 minutes

    Votes: 22 29.3%
  • 8+ minutes

    Votes: 36 48.0%
  • He won't win

    Votes: 4 5.3%

  • Total voters
I did this in 2 minute steps because I think he will take it easier to take some heat off. Voted for 6-8 minutes on the assumption that O'Connor would fade. If not, 2-4 or 4-6 seem reasonable.
2-4 minutes seems highly unlikely with the second ITT in mind, even if O'Connor ends up being the second best rider in the race (which is somewhat unlikely) and Pog doesn't drop him in any other mountain stage....

1:30 in that ITT alone ...if Pog takes his foot of the gas somewhat.

Of course, another GC contender could take time in a breakaway, but UAE seems plenty strong.
I expect Pogi will want to put on a show on the double Ventoux stage so 1 minute minimum and likely more when the other contenders stop/start trading attacks to get an advantage for the podium battle.

Carapaz should be second after all the mountains and will probably lose 1 min30 or more on the TT and is already 5 minutes down so it is hard to see anyone staying within 10 minutes in Paris.
Reactions: Sandisfan
I don't think there is any danger to Pogacar's win, crazy mishaps excluded. He's so strong and he's not crash prone.

I cannot make any predictions what will happen, though. Pogacar seems eager to put on a dominant show - and why not, if people are doubting him anyway, at least make it a great show for the ones who want to see him imperious.
But the team doesn't control the peloton and the stages the way Skyneos does. It's not because they are weak, but they do have some slightly different approach, most importantly, I think, that they don't control the race in the beginning as much. They don't have someone jumping on every possible contender's wheel when the break is formed, they don't have a Dennis or Ganna either and they do not keep the tempo throughout the race, but especially in the beginning, as high as Ineos, if I'm not mistaken. Instead they focus on the biggest threats. That can lead to interesting and huge breaks and the thing can get out of hand.
It will be interesting to see if they change their approach - if they are able to do so.
And then it depends on what the other teams do - now that Pogacar is so strong Ineos, EF, Jumbo, Movi, AG2R, Astana... might chase each other down. Or they are less pragmatic, gamble more, and take some pleasure in watching UAE trying to control the chaos - way less likely in my opinion, Pogacar's show of strength so far might have reached it's major goal. But one can hope...