How Many Minutes Will Pogacar Win By?

[Forever The Best]

How Many Minutes Will Pogacar Win By? Leads 2nd O'Connor by 2:01 ( who won from break omn Tignes ) and 3rd Uran by 5:18

 

[sir fly]

Considering current gaps, the poll options should've been in 5-minute steps.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Considering current gaps, the poll options should've been in 5-minute steps.

Yeah, 0 to 4 seems close to impossible and 4 to 6 highly unlikely. So 3 choices unchooseable.

 

[sir fly]

Yeah, 0 to 4 seems close to impossible and 4 to 6 highly unlikely. So 3 choices unchooseable.

Maybe the aim was to get skewed results... a convincingly winning option.
Kind of researching propaganda.
Seen it in political campaigns regularly.

 

[Cookster15]

He and his manager need to start thinking about him soft pedaling - reason why can't be discussed here. So I voted 6-8 minutes. Know for sure after the Ventoux.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He and his manager need to start thinking about him soft pedaling - reason why can't be discussed here. So I voted 6-8 minutes. Know for sure after the Ventoux.

Same here for the same reasons. He already had to respond to some inconvenient question in his press conference so i assume he'll "tread lightly" from now on, regardless.

 

[phanatic]

I think it might be closer to twenty minutes than eight. He might even go for the break on Stage 10.

 

[dutchdescent]

Clinic references

 

[King Of The Wolds]

He's going to Tokyo, so he'll be managing his efforts from now on.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I'm going for more than Nibali, less than Ullrich. So around 8-9 minutes. Would like to see him go full *** it mode and go over 10 minutes, its been almost 40 years since that happened.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

He already had to respond to some inconvenient question in his press conference so i assume he'll "tread lightly" from now on, regardless.

A shame, really. I hope he loses 15 minutes in an echelon, without crashing.

He'd still win, of course.

 

[Forever The Best]

I did this in 2 minute steps because I think he will take it easier to take some heat off. Voted for 6-8 minutes on the assumption that O'Connor would fade. If not, 2-4 or 4-6 seem reasonable.

 

[MrTea1976]

9 minutes.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pogacar did it smart, with the advantage he has he won't have to force himself anymore and he can save some energy for the olympics. Where he is sure to blast the field and solo to a 4 minute win

 

[Pinot's goat]

The gaps on stages will not be so big if the sun comes out, if the rain continues it will end at 10+ mins.

 

[BlueRoads]

I don't think O'Connor will fade, but his performances in sunny weather likely won't be that strong. I am expecting him to be on a level in the area of Mas and Vingegaard. He will lose time in the time trial compared to Uran, Vingegaard, Lutsenko... Maybe 2 minutes compared to Pogacar.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I did this in 2 minute steps because I think he will take it easier to take some heat off. Voted for 6-8 minutes on the assumption that O'Connor would fade. If not, 2-4 or 4-6 seem reasonable.

2-4 minutes seems highly unlikely with the second ITT in mind, even if O'Connor ends up being the second best rider in the race (which is somewhat unlikely) and Pog doesn't drop him in any other mountain stage....

1:30 in that ITT alone ...if Pog takes his foot of the gas somewhat.

Of course, another GC contender could take time in a breakaway, but UAE seems plenty strong.

 

[canarydan23]

Clinic references

Pretty inevitable really.

 

[hayneplane]

I expect Pogi will want to put on a show on the double Ventoux stage so 1 minute minimum and likely more when the other contenders stop/start trading attacks to get an advantage for the podium battle.

Carapaz should be second after all the mountains and will probably lose 1 min30 or more on the TT and is already 5 minutes down so it is hard to see anyone staying within 10 minutes in Paris.

 

[BlueRoads]

I don't think there is any danger to Pogacar's win, crazy mishaps excluded. He's so strong and he's not crash prone.

I cannot make any predictions what will happen, though. Pogacar seems eager to put on a dominant show - and why not, if people are doubting him anyway, at least make it a great show for the ones who want to see him imperious.
But the team doesn't control the peloton and the stages the way Skyneos does. It's not because they are weak, but they do have some slightly different approach, most importantly, I think, that they don't control the race in the beginning as much. They don't have someone jumping on every possible contender's wheel when the break is formed, they don't have a Dennis or Ganna either and they do not keep the tempo throughout the race, but especially in the beginning, as high as Ineos, if I'm not mistaken. Instead they focus on the biggest threats. That can lead to interesting and huge breaks and the thing can get out of hand.
It will be interesting to see if they change their approach - if they are able to do so.
And then it depends on what the other teams do - now that Pogacar is so strong Ineos, EF, Jumbo, Movi, AG2R, Astana... might chase each other down. Or they are less pragmatic, gamble more, and take some pleasure in watching UAE trying to control the chaos - way less likely in my opinion, Pogacar's show of strength so far might have reached it's major goal. But one can hope...

 

[Pantani_lives]

I agree he'll soft-pedal and save his energy for Tokyo. So probably around fifteen minutes.