How well will Armstrong climb in this Tour?

[euphrades]

+1 on the age factor.

While Lance will probably be able to climb just as well as 1999-2005, I don't think he'll be able to match the accelerations and change in pace of Contador and Andy Schleck. They will be the two riders to make the race interesting in the mountains IMO.

I agree completely with this statement.

I think he will be as strong, able to ride his own race and stay with everyone with the exception of Schleck and Contador when they do their explosive accelerations. He knows how to get into shape and what his checkpoints are so I am sure he is strong in climbing...I don't see him losing 3 to 4 minutes but I can see 30 to 40 seconds......

After watching the TTT I think he knows where he and Alberto sit. I also think he rode to get the jersey but he also rode to put Contador into a very good position as well. I think at this point you are seeing the both of them beginning to develop a strong alliance, Armstrong is seeing Contador's strengths in his form, Contador is seeing Armstrong's stregths in experience. The two will be a forumla for Astana to win with Contador......

 

[Jayarbie]

From what I've seen so far, I'd guess that Contador is going to demolish the field on the climbs. Armstrong should be able to hang with the other contenders (Evans, Sastre, Schlecks, etc), but I don't think anyone will be able to match Contador.

 

[Cobber]

From what I've seen so far, I'd guess that Contador is going to demolish the field on the climbs. Armstrong should be able to hang with the other contenders (Evans, Sastre, Schlecks, etc), but I don't think anyone will be able to match Contador.

I don't think he'll match the other contenders either. LA looked pretty mediocre in the Giro and the GC riders in the TdF are a step above those from the Giro. He is definitely fitter than in the Giro, but I think he will be just off the pace. My guess.... he'll hang with the leaders until the last 2-3 KMs following major attacks on mountain-top finishes. No way he wins Ventoux!

 

[mambo#5]

T - 2 days to figure this thread.....

 

[Jayarbie]

I don't think he'll match the other contenders either. LA looked pretty mediocre in the Giro and the GC riders in the TdF are a step above those from the Giro. He is definitely fitter than in the Giro, but I think he will be just off the pace. My guess.... he'll hang with the leaders until the last 2-3 KMs following major attacks on mountain-top finishes. No way he wins Ventoux!

It depends on who you list as "contenders" (outside Contador, who, again, I think is going to pretty much smash the field apart) and which stages. For the real steep climbs, I think Armstrong will be hard pressed to match the pure climbers like Andy Schleck and Carlos Sastre, but he should be able to stick with the less mountain-goat-like contenders like Evans and Kreutzinger and CVV. I think it's likely Menchov will be dropped on Friday and will be out of the race by Sunday.

By the time we get to Ventoux, I expect that Contador will be the clear leader of both Astana and the race as a whole. The only way Armstrong wins Ventoux is if he is 10+ mins down on GC, gets into a break, and attacks from the break and holds on. Otherwise, he will be working for Contador, who will put his final stamp of authority on the Tour by putting another 1:30 into the GC men (regardless of whether he actually wins the stage or not). If there is no one who wins the stage from a break, Contador will win on Ventoux.

 

[fpcyclingn]

Lance will crush all man.

 

[luckyboy]

That poll seems a bit biased towards him doing well - it goes from excellent, good, good straight to terrible.

I voted terrible anyway

 

[Parrot23]

I don't think he'll be able to match the accelerations and change in pace of Contador and Andy Schleck.

Irony is that's what he used to do to Ullrich the diesel engine quite deliberately. Probably not now, as you say.

 

[Publicus]

After watching the TTT I think he knows where he and Alberto sit. I also think he rode to get the jersey but he also rode to put Contador into a very good position as well. I think at this point you are seeing the both of them beginning to develop a strong alliance, Armstrong is seeing Contador's strengths in his form, Contador is seeing Armstrong's stregths in experience. The two will be a forumla for Astana to win with Contador......

I'm coming to a similar conclusion.

 

[Parrot23]

Wed. Twitter by Lance. I see he thinks he has the form:

"As for myself, I'm feeling pretty damn good. We'll have confirmation Friday tho."

 

[Snake8]

Well I hope he does well, because i am thinking of a comeback myself....

 

[forty four]

cant say what will happen for sure but armstrong will climb well whatever that ends up meaning in gc. no one will do what armstrong's done in the tour in our lifetimes i suspect. so he deserves some respect at least based on his previous wins.

 

[Futuroscope]

Everyone assumes that Contador will climb well, probably the best. But what about Armstrong?

How well will Armstrong climb in this Tour?

(poll is coming)

i think lance will climb well (and better than at the giro) but won't be able to match contador, evans, sastre, andy schleck and maybe a couple of more riders. atleast not on all the mountain stages.

i think lance can finish 5-6th in TDF unless he totally goes to pieces on one of the mountain stages.

 

[Futuroscope]

i also wanna add that lance may very well hang in there with the top climbers to the finish line on one or two mountain stages but he wont be as explosive as he used to be and will get into trouble when he has to react to attacks. it will be very interesting to see what astana does when they have so many riders so high up in the general classification. personally i think its messed up that JB didnt announce contador as the clear captain in the team.