I think Levi's deluding himself

[Anonymous]

Another dellusional geriatric, hoping he can reverse the ravages of time.
The only difference being, poor Levi hasn't got any hard core fans prepared to theorise about his ability to massively improve, in the twilight of his career.

I'll call him to set up a foundation for some illness and he can call it LLF and set up two websites with similar names but one with an .org and the other with .com! Then we can start the "theories" threads!

Where's my Levistrong wrist band...? LOL!

 

[Mellow Velo]

I'll call him to set up a foundation for some illness and he can call it LLF and set up two websites with similar names but one with an .org and the other with .com! Then we can start the "theories" threads!

Where's my Levistrong wrist band...? LOL!

How about: Lance Armstrong's Bald Rider Awareness Trust?

 

[cyclegeek]

he did pretty well in 2009 without team support

Come on, thats an under estimation of JB and the team as we will all see in 2010! Supposing as earlier stated, Astana even lasts to participate in the tour. If that happens will all miss out on a great TDF.

 

[cyclegeek]

I'll call him to set up a foundation for some illness and he can call it LLF and set up two websites with similar names but one with an .org and the other with .com! Then we can start the "theories" threads!

Where's my Levistrong wrist band...? LOL!

I think it's in your ****!;

 

[Publicus]

That pretty much sums up Levi. With a bit of luck he may have won the 07 Tour but he didn't and that was his final chance. Also in the 1st or 2nd mountain stage of that Tour didn't Contador have a mechanical too, got dropped from the group he was in, started going again when the group Levi was in joined up with him and then Contador rode away from that group.

That is correct. AC was in the lead group and I believe he got a flat tire or threw a chain. I can't remember which.

 

[cyclegeek]

Another dellusional geriatric, hoping he can reverse the ravages of time.
The only difference being, poor Levi hasn't got any hard core fans prepared to theorise about his ability to massively improve, in the twilight of his career.

You imply theres more than 1?

 

[Psalmon]

That pretty much sums up Levi. With a bit of luck he may have won the 07 Tour but he didn't and that was his final chance. Also in the 1st or 2nd mountain stage of that Tour didn't Contador have a mechanical too, got dropped from the group he was in, started going again when the group Levi was in joined up with him and then Contador rode away from that group.

My apologies, you are correct. Contador had the mechanical on the climb to Tignes and lost contact with an Evans, F Schleck, Moreau group, ultimately costing him 18 seconds to that group. Levi underwhelmed that day (and was further back even after AC's mishap), apparently riding his tempo and it cost him. Point is the same, it's hard to see winning the Tour by conservative tempo riding (by that I mean staying within oneself considering the 3-week nature of the race) and hoping luck will break against others, but it's worth a try and certainly worth being prepared.

I should say also that it's always easy to sit around and analyze a race in hindsight or from the couch watching it yelling "come on Cadel! keep up! Aaagguuh", when these guys are there, in the moment, on impossible climbs, in a hypoxia-fest, melee. I'm sure many of us have experienced The Limit, when a coach or family member's urging "pick it up" means nothing.

I do admire Levi and what he's achieved.

 

[Publicus]

Come on, thats an under estimation of JB and the team as we will all see in 2010! Supposing as earlier stated, Astana even lasts to participate in the tour. If that happens will all miss out on a great TDF.

Welcome to the forum. I think you are OVERESTIMATING JB and his team for 2010. Remember the strongest rider always wins the TdF (with obvious caveat of doping violations (see e.g., Rasmussen in 2007, Landis in 2006). Not the strongest team. Not the best team manager or DS. But the strongest rider. And that will be particularly true this year where there will be no TTT (which helps riders on "weak" teams).

Now even JB, LA, LL and anyone else will tell you that the strongest rider on Astana 2009 was AC. And most would agree that he is the best stage racer in the world at this point. So the fact that he may not have as strong a team as he had last year, won't mean as much given the 2010 TdF route, so long as he prepares himself to be better than he was in 2009 (which is what I think it is going to take for him to win in 2010).

I say all this and I expect the race to be harder for AC. Frankly, if he's able to pull it off under these circumstances, it will be the biggest win of his career.

 

[Mellow Velo]

You imply theres more than 1?

Four sure.

 

[cyclegeek]

Welcome to the forum. I think you are OVERESTIMATING JB and his team for 2010. Remember the strongest rider always wins the TdF (with obvious caveat of doping violations (see e.g., Rasmussen in 2007, Landis in 2006). Not the strongest team. Not the best team manager or DS. But the strongest rider. And that will be particularly true this year where there will be no TTT (which helps riders on "weak" teams).

Now even JB, LA, LL and anyone else will tell you that the strongest rider on Astana 2009 was AC. And most would agree that he is the best stage racer in the world at this point. So the fact that he may not have as strong a team as he had last year, won't mean as much given the 2010 TdF route, so long as he prepares himself to be better than he was in 2009 (which is what I think it is going to take for him to win in 2010).

I say all this and I expect the race to be harder for AC. Frankly, if he's able to pull it off under these circumstances, it will be the biggest win of his career.

All true just ask Cadel Evans about team! AC is no doubt the strongest rider in the world today, and this year will be a good gauge of how important a team is. Can't wait.

 

[cyclegeek]

Four sure.

Four?

 

[Highlander]

I don't think Levi really has a chance at winning at GT at this point in his career. That being said, I wouldn't even want to see him win one because he is one of the most boring riders out there. He never attacks and just sucks wheels in the mountains and tries to make up time in the TTs. I remember being very amused this year during the Giro when Levi made some noise that he was planning to attack in the mountains because everyone knew he never would. I know that strategy works quite well for results, but it makes races very boring to watch on TV.

 

[cyclegeek]

All true just ask Cadel Evans about team! AC is no doubt the strongest rider in the world today, and this year will be a good gauge of how important a team is. Can't wait.

Oh by the way, JB and his TEAM has won 9 of the last 10 so it will be very interesting for the worlds best rider.

 

[cyclegeek]

I don't think Levi really has a chance at winning at GT at this point in his career. That being said, I wouldn't even want to see him win one because he is one of the most boring riders out there. He never attacks and just sucks wheels in the mountains and tries to make up time in the TTs. I remember being very amused this year during the Giro when Levi made some noise that he was planning to attack in the mountains because everyone knew he never would. I know that strategy works quite well for results, but it makes races very boring to watch on TV.

I agree 100%

 

[BYOP88]

Oh by the way, JB and his TEAM has won 9 of the last 10 so it will be very interesting for the worlds best rider.

Yeah but JB really did mess up the 06 Tour didn't he, just goes to show no matter how "good" a DS is, if you haven't got the "best" rider you lose.

 

[flicker]

once

The first time I saw Levi was in the 01or02 vuelta on versus.

He should have won he was so awesome. Since I have been following him I have found him BORING a Weenie and a princess. He gets a lot of press in the Santa Rosa paper so they go into his home life etc.

He is fast though especially in the TT. To do well in the tour he needs extreme luck and to never have a bad day or couple of days. Bad days are his undoing otherwise he would win a lot more.

He is not past his prime, Levis kind of an ageless guy. Saw him ripping down Empire grade in the Rain.....guy has balls. Still a weenie, still BORING.

 

[Publicus]

All true just ask Cadel Evans about team! AC is no doubt the strongest rider in the world today, and this year will be a good gauge of how important a team is. Can't wait.

I think Evans' crash in 2008 hurt him more than Saxo Bank's team tactics did. Of course, i can't test that hypothesis since Evans was injured and Saxo Bank's team tactics were excellent.

 

[Psalmon]

I say all this and I expect the race to be harder for AC. Frankly, if he's able to pull it off under these circumstances, it will be the biggest win of his career.

I agree with all of what you said.

There are 3 stages with big climbs positioned 20-40 K (one to Pau is greater) to a flatish, run-in finish (a la Grand-Bornand this year). Also there's the pave stage and four medium-mountain stages.

The Shack's strategy to win in 2010 IMHO has to be to create disruption whenever possible as a team. They want some kind of super-isolation, 3 or 4 on a lone AC on these particular mountain stages and either break someone away AC isn't watching (or can't watch like Levi or Kloden), or hope AC is alone with the remaining RS team on the flat into the finish and has some kind of mechanical (maybe the diabolical LA pulls a team Cinzano on AC with an old bicycle pump ).

I can also see RS trying to put Levi or Kloden into breaks on hilly stages and make Astana choose to work or give time.

Isolating AC on any finishing climb will be like locking themselves in a cage with a hungry tiger, so you have to assume in those stages RS will let someone else work early (Saxo?) and save their own energy to limit losses to AC attacks. They have to know LA will never follow AC on one of those accelerations, which this year AC should start from 10K out if possible, not 3K. An AC 15K solo up the Tourmalet taking 2-3 minutes would be "epic". LA could barely accelerate/attack/gap after 2002 let alone at age 39.

If I'm Saxo, I would mirror off of what RS does throughout with the exception that Andy and/or Frank try and go with AC when he lights it off. I.e. I'd save the Saxo team, not go to the front on the Tourmalet for instance, but let AC dictate. I don't think they'll do this, but a "head-on", "we threw the kitchen sink at him" approach will land Andy in second again without a sink in his kitchen.

With less ITT km's, AC will need good luck and good judgment (yet to see, but developing) on what to chase down to win. He may find himself alone often (sans equipe).

Bringing this back to topic, all this disruption could open a door somewhere for Levi, from a break for instance. It's not that LA want's to give it away to him (or Kloden), or that LA is the quintessential teammate. Rather, LA can't win without disruption. He knew this in 2009 and knows it now (full season notwithstanding). Letting Levi up the road to cause disruption is a risk I think he'll be willing to take (i.e. Levi wins Pereiro style) if it means putting pressure on AC to choose. So say AC goes into a Belgian ditch and breaks something, LA would definitely take total control of RS and sacrifice Levi like a lamb in April. But if Levi goes over the Maleleine or the Port the Bales with 9 minutes in hand, Levi could be left to try and win it all on his own (meaning, LA wouldn't ask a Levi in the MJ to set a burying tempo for LA, but LA won't set tempo for Levi in the MJ). Another reason to be very prepared Levi.

As many have said here, 2010 will be a fascinating study of the team aspects in this sport. The route suits this well and is becomes more appealing and balanced the more you look at it.

 

[Wallace]

I don't think anyone should be worried about the Schlecklet at the Tour of California--he always takes a few months to get into form. He'll be there for the miles, if he shows up again, as part of his slow build-up to LBL. The Saxobank rider Levi should be worried about is Cancellara, who's a monster in the early season if he doesn't get sick (like he did last year). He can easily stomp LL in the ITT, and none of the California climbs will cause him any difficulty. If Cancellara wants the race, he should be able to take it. But he also might come just for the miles and to bag a stage or two.

 

[Highlander]

I don't think anyone should be worried about the Schlecklet at the Tour of California--he always takes a few months to get into form. He'll be there for the miles, if he shows up again, as part of his slow build-up to LBL. The Saxobank rider Levi should be worried about is Cancellara, who's a monster in the early season if he doesn't get sick (like he did last year). He can easily stomp LL in the ITT, and none of the California climbs will cause him any difficulty. If Cancellara wants the race, he should be able to take it. But he also might come just for the miles and to bag a stage or two.

California is in May this year. They changed the date because of the weather last year and the desire to include a mountaintop finish. Therefore, if AS does show up, he should be in considerably better form than if the race was still in February.

 

[Rock7586]

Pasadena to big bear any way they go will be a Monster. I live in that neck of the woods and there is no easy way to get there.

 

[cyclegeek]

Welcome to the forum. I think you are OVERESTIMATING JB and his team for 2010. Remember the strongest rider always wins the TdF (with obvious caveat of doping violations (see e.g., Rasmussen in 2007, Landis in 2006). Not the strongest team. Not the best team manager or DS. But the strongest rider. And that will be particularly true this year where there will be no TTT (which helps riders on "weak" teams).

Now even JB, LA, LL and anyone else will tell you that the strongest rider on Astana 2009 was AC. And most would agree that he is the best stage racer in the world at this point. So the fact that he may not have as strong a team as he had last year, won't mean as much given the 2010 TdF route, so long as he prepares himself to be better than he was in 2009 (which is what I think it is going to take for him to win in 2010).

I say all this and I expect the race to be harder for AC. Frankly, if he's able to pull it off under these circumstances, it will be the biggest win of his career.

Don't 4get the "caveat", as you call it, of Bjarne Riis. Funny, once you throw his name in there it's amazing how dumb the whole conversation is!

 

[cyclegeek]

Yeah but JB really did mess up the 06 Tour didn't he, just goes to show no matter how "good" a DS is, if you haven't got the "best" rider you lose.

I don't think looking at JBs record he's messed up anything. If he has I wish I could mess up too!

 

[auscyclefan94]

Welcome to the forum. I think you are OVERESTIMATING JB and his team for 2010. Remember the strongest rider always wins the TdF (with obvious caveat of doping violations (see e.g., Rasmussen in 2007, Landis in 2006). Not the strongest team. Not the best team manager or DS. But the strongest rider. And that will be particularly true this year where there will be no TTT (which helps riders on "weak" teams).

Now even JB, LA, LL and anyone else will tell you that the strongest rider on Astana 2009 was AC. And most would agree that he is the best stage racer in the world at this point. So the fact that he may not have as strong a team as he had last year, won't mean as much given the 2010 TdF route, so long as he prepares himself to be better than he was in 2009 (which is what I think it is going to take for him to win in 2010).

I say all this and I expect the race to be harder for AC. Frankly, if he's able to pull it off under these circumstances, it will be the biggest win of his career.

Not always.Conti was the strongest this year but you also need some luck to help get you through

 

[auscyclefan94]

31 seconds.

That's the margin that put Levi in third in 2007. Looking at that Tour there were decisive moments where Levi may have stayed in contact or taken control, but watched the top step ride away.

I remember watching the Plateau de Beille stage when MR and AC furiously attacked each other, thinking, geez Levi you're watching the Tour ride away from you right here (as with Cadel). For whatever reason, physiology, development, focus, Levi just doesn't have any acceleration, which cost him 40 seconds that day (Cadel lost 1:52 there and got second by 26 seconds overall, umgph!).

Oddly, Levi then beat Contador by 9 seconds on the Aubisque 3 days later.

Levi also enigmatically won the final TT (by 2:18 over AC), but finished 8th (excluding a nitro'ed, bovine-steroid, horse-blood injected Vino ), giving 18 seconds to AC in the first TT, 1:25 down to Cadel (who was "2nd").

Throw in a mechanical to Tignes (gave up 29 seconds to AC that day) and you can see how "making the podium" 31 seconds down, after Chicken's unexpected departure, must both vex him every day, and remind him to always be 101% prepared.

That's not a totally delusional approach. LA won the 99 Tour over Zulle by 1:34 excluding the crash on the Gois (the second group lost 6:03!). He took only 1:06 in the two TTs and despite all the adulation, only 31 seconds to Sestriere. LA was clearly "prepared", but not necessarily by that much. However after 1999, nobody would have a shot at beating him until 2003.

AC's 2007 victory clarified his potential to win and weaknesses to improve. Count those now as complete. So Lance aside, a 2007-like opportunity won't likely come again for Levi. But the Tour is a race where anything can happen on any day, and if a July rainstorm and pave take out key contenders save a couple Levi could beat, it makes perfect sense to consider himself a contender and be prepared.

No go work this winter on some acceleration Levi, and show us what you got up to Bear. That will be one day you'll need it for sure if you really want #4.

With a little luck, minus rasmussen and team support in evans' case, levi and evans could of won.