31 seconds.
That's the margin that put Levi in third in 2007. Looking at that Tour there were decisive moments where Levi may have stayed in contact or taken control, but watched the top step ride away.
I remember watching the Plateau de Beille stage when MR and AC furiously attacked each other, thinking, geez Levi you're watching the Tour ride away from you right here (as with Cadel). For whatever reason, physiology, development, focus, Levi just doesn't have any acceleration, which cost him 40 seconds that day (Cadel lost 1:52 there and got second by 26 seconds overall, umgph!).
Oddly, Levi then beat Contador by 9 seconds on the Aubisque 3 days later.
Levi also enigmatically won the final TT (by 2:18 over AC), but finished 8th (excluding a nitro'ed, bovine-steroid, horse-blood injected Vino
), giving 18 seconds to AC in the first TT, 1:25 down to Cadel (who was "2nd").
Throw in a mechanical to Tignes (gave up 29 seconds to AC that day) and you can see how "making the podium" 31 seconds down, after Chicken's unexpected departure, must both vex him every day, and remind him to always be 101% prepared.
That's not a totally delusional approach. LA won the 99 Tour over Zulle by 1:34 excluding the crash on the Gois (the second group lost 6:03!). He took only 1:06 in the two TTs and despite all the adulation, only 31 seconds to Sestriere. LA was clearly "prepared", but not necessarily by that much. However after 1999, nobody would have a shot at beating him until 2003.
AC's 2007 victory clarified his potential to win and weaknesses to improve. Count those now as complete. So Lance aside, a 2007-like opportunity won't likely come again for Levi. But the Tour is a race where anything can happen on any day, and if a July rainstorm and pave take out key contenders save a couple Levi
could beat, it makes perfect sense to consider himself a contender and be prepared.
No go work this winter on some acceleration Levi, and show us what you got up to Bear. That will be one day you'll need it for sure if you really want #4.