Giro d'Italia Il Giro d'Italia 2025: Who will win? 2nd rest day poll.

[Netserk]

GC from PCS:

Rnk	Rider	Team	Time
1	DEL TORO Isaac	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	33:36:45
2	AYUSO Juan	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	1:13
3	TIBERI Antonio	Bahrain - Victorious	1:30
4	CARAPAZ Richard	EF Education - EasyPost	1:40
5	CICCONE Giulio	Lidl - Trek	1:41
6	YATES Simon	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	1:42
7	BERNAL Egan	INEOS Grenadiers	1:57
8	MCNULTY Brandon	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	1:59
9	YATES Adam	UAE Team Emirates - XRG	2:01
10	ROGLIČ Primož	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	2:25
11	STORER Michael	Tudor Pro Cycling Team	3:03
12	CARUSO Damiano	Bahrain - Victorious	3:06
13	ARENSMAN Thymen	INEOS Grenadiers	3:21
14	VACEK Mathias	Lidl - Trek	3:23
15	RUBIO Einer	Movistar Team	3:34
16	PIDCOCK Thomas	Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team	3:35
17	HARPER Chris	Team Jayco AlUla	3:39
18	PELLIZZARI Giulio	Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe	3:43
19	PIGANZOLI Davide	Team Polti VisitMalta	3:46
20	GEE Derek	Israel - Premier Tech	3:59
21	ULISSI Diego	XDS Astana Team	4:56
22	FORTUNATO Lorenzo	XDS Astana Team	5:08
23	POOLE Max	Team Picnic PostNL	5:35
24	PRODHOMME Nicolas	Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team	5:48
25	KNOX James	Soudal Quick-Step	6:18

 

[Filippo_3467]

Honestly if all UAE guys do a good TT they should be able to choose the winner. That dominance in numbers is striking. Of course Roglic could turn out to be the best in a one-on-one on finestre (he will also take time back in the TT), but they are basically 2 vs. 5 against Red Bull in the mountains so they can reduce the field and then get away from Primoz. Stage 15 or 16 are perfect for gaining a minute or more for a UAE rider with Roglic isolated and group 2 syndome behind.

 

[Red Rick]

Honestly if all UAE guys do a good TT they should be able to choose the winner. That dominance in numbers is striking. Of course Roglic could turn out to be the best in a one-on-one on finestre (he will also take time back in the TT), but they are basically 2 vs. 5 against Red Bull in the mountains so they can reduce the field and then get away from Primoz. Stage 15 or 16 are perfect for gaining a minute or more for a UAE rider with Roglic isolated and group 2 syndome behind.

What 5 GC threats does UAE have?

Only Yates, Ayuso and Del Toro are credible, and Yates will be behind in GC after the ITT and he doesn't seem to have that top shape he needs. McNulty just isn't the high mountain climber and he did a gazillion race days before the Giro. Majka wasn't out of GC yet but he already shipped 5 minutes today.

It's mainly Del Toro and Ayuso. And imo Del Toro has yet to show it in the high mountains, while Ayuso just doesn't look that imperious to me either.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It is beyond open. Ayuso was impressive on the first MTF, but has looked kind of average elsewhere. Roglic did a great TT but nothing he's shown since suggests the time he lost today won't be a problem. Del Toro has probably been the most consistent and has a buffer, but is completely untested. Everyone else is clearly less likely, but it's not inconceivable at all that one of them wins - Carapaz feels particularly intriguing right now.

Voted Del Toro, but I'm not confident in anyone right now.

 

[Filippo_3467]

Never said they have 5 GC threats. They have 5 riders that can make a GC group of 20 after e.g. Alpe Pellegrino. Then they have 100 ks to work over maybe Pelizarri or an isolated Roglic himself. they are now totally overpowered and well positioned. If they bet on a 1v1 Ayuso vs. Roglic they will loose the Giro. But who is stopping del Toro from gaining on stage 12 or 16 if he gets separation with 2 or 3 UAE riders in the wheel? There are almost no good domestiques left to pull. Caruso and Arensman probably go for there own GC. It's UAE so they will probably kill temselves and Roglic wins in the end but any rational team would just isolate the other GC guys and then work them over.

 

[Red Rick]

Never said they have 5 GC threats. They have 5 riders that can make a GC group of 20 after e.g. Alpe Pellegrino. Then they have 100 ks to work over maybe Pelizarri or an isolated Roglic himself. they are now totally overpowered and well positioned. If they bet on a 1v1 Ayuso vs. Roglic they will loose the Giro. But who is stopping del Toro from gaining on stage 12 or 16 if he gets separation with 2 or 3 UAE riders in the wheel? There are almost no good domestiques left to pull. Caruso and Arensman probably go for there own GC. It's UAE so they will probably kill temselves and Roglic wins in the end but any rational team would just isolate the other GC guys and then work them over.

I very heavily doubt they will race that aggressively when Roglic is 2 minutes back.

They can completely neutralize all stages except for 16 and 20, yes. But on those stages, the gaps are entirely doable.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Now the Giro got really interesting.

1) Del Torro is a dark horse who showed exceptional form today. He has a comfortable situation in the GC but OTOH he's completely unproven in high-mountains of a 3 week race. He may totally collapse in the mountains...or maybe not.

2) Roglic is in a totally different situation: he's almost 2.5 minutes back after a difficult stage and has to attack and gain substantial time. However, he's by far the most proven and greatest GT rider of the race so him gaining significant time in high-mountains is absolutely feasible.

3) Exactly In the middle there's Ayuso. Over a minute behind Del Torro and over a minute ahead of Roglic. His situation is moderately good and he's also in the middle in terms of GT achievements.

I think the winner will be out of those 3 guys but I have to think a bit more. I don't know who to vote for now.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Have a feeling the veterans will rise to the top, going with Roglic but on serious Carapaz watch as well. Nothing would surprise me

 

[Peyroteo94]

I want Del Toro just to see Ayuso's face.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

I understand people doubts about del Toro, but he looked so strong today, that I think he will be the best, or close to, in the high mountains too, and he is no slouch in the ITT.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

After today Ayuso actually became #1 favourite (with a good margin over his rivals) according to odds. But he has little support here. I'm really really temped to vote for Del Torro here (he impressed me a lot today) but I will stick with my pre-race prediction: Rogla after some dramatic fight vs UAE in the mountains, it will be much more difficult than I initially thought though.

 

[Netserk]

After today Ayuso actually became #1 favourite (with a good margin over his rivals) according to odds. But he has little support here. I'm really really temped to vote for Del Torro here (he impressed me a lot today) but I will stick with my pre-race prediction: Rogla after some dramatic fight vs UAE in the mountains, it will be much more difficult than I initially thought though.

That was already the case after Marsia.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I understand people doubts about del Toro, but he looked so strong today, that I think he will be the best, or close to, in the high mountains too, and he is no slouch in the ITT.

This, Del Toro is a capable TTer and Ayuso hasn't had his good TT-performances in gts so far.

 

[Netserk]

Final podium:

1. Rogla
2. Shates
3. Ahates

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This, Del Toro is a capable TTer and Ayuso hasn't had his good TT-performances in gts so far.

Del Torro should ride a good TT but the question is if he can ride the whole Giro without any weak day. He's by far the least proven out of top GC contenders. He can actually be very strong in most of mountain stages (his form suggests it's possible) and still lose due to one weaker day later in the race.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Del Torro should ride a good TT but the question is if he can ride the whole Giro without any weak day. He's by far the least proven out of top GC contenders. He can actually be very strong in most of mountain stages and still lose due to one weaker day later in the race.

Consistency in the mountain stages was his strength in the u23 race (raced 3 Aosta mountain stages in a row, 4th on all of them, with no teammates left in the race) but yeah, of course the pro ranks are a different kind of beast...

 

[theyoungest]

Watching Del Toro today I just wondered why every GC guy on UAE looks like Pogacar. He's an unknown quantity in the high mountains but clearly he's the strongest guy in the race right now. That stage Ayuso won, he could have won as well, I'm pretty sure of that.

If not him, well, I have really no idea. One guy who has just been quietly going about his business is Simon Yates, he looks quite good. Never discount Roglic, he doesn't look very good right now but he's tough as nails and will just keep on keeping on. Ayuso has had one good day and a few really average ones. Carapaz... you just never know.

 

[Red Rick]

Every time a gap goes over 2 minutes the narrative just shifts for "unless he has a bad day he wins". Random collapses don't happen that often. Peak level is more important than consistency, and IMO Del Toro hasn't shown to be better than Ayuso in the mountains, and I think stage 7 is a more important indicator than today.

 

[Netserk]

Who do y'all think will end up on the podium? If not enough podium posts, the second rest day will see a second poll

 

[tobydawq]

Every time a gap goes over 2 minutes the narrative just shifts for "unless he has a bad day he wins". Random collapses don't happen that often. Peak level is more important than consistency, and IMO Del Toro hasn't shown to be better than Ayuso in the mountains, and I think stage 7 is a more important indicator than today.

I have no idea what this means.

I agree with DE, everything is open, especially with probable injuries for Roglic and Ayuso. I also voted Del Toro without believing it too much.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Every time a gap goes over 2 minutes the narrative just shifts for "unless he has a bad day he wins". Random collapses don't happen that often. Peak level is more important than consistency, and IMO Del Toro hasn't shown to be better than Ayuso in the mountains, and I think stage 7 is a more important indicator than today.

Yeah, it's also realistic that Del Torro will simply lose to better climbers (i.e. Roglic and Ayuso) but his level will be good and consistent enough to get for example a podium spot (without any really bad day).

 

[tobydawq]

Also, it must have taken great restraint to not include Gee in the poll.

Maybe Storer will upend everything in the mountains.

 

[Red Rick]

I have no idea what this means.

I agree with DE, everything is open, especially with probable injuries for Roglic and Ayuso. I also voted Del Toro without believing it too much.

It was really the big narrative around O'Connor once he got 5 mintues advantage. He had won unless he had a bad day somewhere. Instead he just got dropped and lost 40s 5+ times because he was not one of the top climbers in the race.

 

[red_flanders]

It was really the big narrative around O'Connor once he got 5 mintues advantage. He had won unless he had a bad day somewhere. Instead he just got dropped and lost 40s 5+ times because he was not one of the top climbers in the race.

Hear what you're saying RE the narrative, I mean I don't really recall anyone saying that but I don't pay that much attention. I don't doubt what you say. Never thought he had a chance myself.

But we'd have to say Del Toro appears to be more of a talent than O'Connor, yes? Less time gained, but I would think he's much more of a racer, both physically and mentally.

 

[Netserk]

Also, it must have taken great restraint to not include Gee in the poll.

Maybe Storer will upend everything in the mountains.

It has been a very disappointing first week in this regard. I hope he will find his level and go in breaks, he can backdoor a top-10 or better in the right circumstances. I hope he will be in the lead group again on the slopes of Radici where his super fan cheered him on two years ago.