Giro d'Italia Il Giro d'Italia 2025: Who will win? 2nd rest day poll.

[Krzysztof_O]

Who do y'all think will end up on the podium? If not enough podium posts, the second rest day will see a second poll

I will go with Roglic, Ayuso and Del Toro (any order is possible). I'm gambling a bit with Del Toro here.

 

[SafeBet]

Storer as everyone could see peaked too early. He should drop out of the top 10 and aim for a stage in week three.

How can you conclude he peaked too early?
He was taken out by a teammate yesterday, he would be around Bernal and Ciccone in GC otherwise.

 

[Roku]

Think it's one of the most open GTs we've seen in a while. Some 2002 Giro vibes here, with an underwhelming route, several contenders who are a bit of unknown. I could easily see Del Toro in pink until the closing weekend and then see a turnaround in GC.

I go with Ayuso, Tiberi, Roglic for the podium.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

How can you conclude he peaked too early?
He was taken out by a teammate yesterday, he would be around Bernal and Ciccone in GC otherwise.

Wasn't he already dropped at that point?

 

[Squire]

Sticking to my pre-race prediction of Ayuso. Intrigued by Del Toro, but consistency hasn't been his thing in the pro ranks so far. It might come, but no idea if this is the time. He looked good yesterday, but also got some Ineos help and he didn't exactly go across mountains. Ayuso is still the one who has looked the best on an actual climb.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Having survived the gravel intact, I think Simon Yates and carapax are the most exciting riders in this giro. Of course they will fall back a little bit in the TT tomorrow.

 

[SafeBet]

Wasn't he already dropped at that point?

Nope, he was right behind Adam Yates and Gee when he crashed. That's the main GC riders group entering the second sector.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

What have we learned so far?

UAE is the strongest team. Not a huge surprise, but time will tell whether they're too strong for their own good, like Visma in the 2023 Vuelta. Does any of them have wives/girlfriends who are likely to act as the riders' anger translators online?

I expected BORA to be a bit better now that Roglič has had over a year and an extra splash of cash to stomp up the place. Losing Hindley obviously hasn't helped, but, apart from Pellizzari and Moscon to a lesser degree, the rest of the team hasn't yet stepped up. Now they're on the backfoot and will have to figure out a way to break through UAE's defence. Pellizzari is still not out of GC, but he is too far back for now to be an immediate threat if he attacks, especially if he loses more time in the ITT tomorrow.

Lucas Hamilton has exposed himself as a Wright-Colbrelli hybrid, or a WC if you will.

Who will win the race? Chris Harper.

 

[tobydawq]

UAE is the strongest team. Not a huge surprise, but time will tell whether they're too strong for their own good, like Visma in the 2023 Vuelta. Does any of them have wives/girlfriends who are likely to act as the riders' anger translators online?

I feel like it's much more likely that it will be a full-blown internal crisis this time than in that Vuelta. UAE generally seem to cater to a less woke public and not being too focused on riding unitedly and winnen samen than Visma. So it could be quite fun even if it would seem as though all is good for the team.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Oh no, what if UAE has a race like Visma in the 2023 Vuelta where they finish 1-2-3. Issue for UAE would be if they didn‘t ride as a team and weren‘t the strongest, not being too strong. Adam Yates has ridden the last two GTs like Kuss did before that Vuelta so he‘ll be the lucky third.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Oh no, what if UAE has a race like Visma in the 2023 Vuelta where they finish 1-2-3. Issue for UAE would be if they didn‘t ride as a team and weren‘t the strongest, not being too strong. Adam Yates has ridden the last two GTs like Kuss did before that Vuelta so he‘ll be the lucky third.

Del Toro is the less experienced GC rider who has suddenly found himself in the lead, so that seems more similar to the Kuss situation. Now Yates will be allowed to attack first on the climbs because it's always someone's birthday somewhere.

 

[Earns1985]

Ayuso is still the one who has looked the best on an actual climb.

Yeah true, but it was also basically only a 2,6 km climb. So still a big question mark, who will be the best climber of this race in the third week.

Looking at the profiles of the second week now, biggest differences will likely occur now in the TT. In all other stages we will likely only see small differences between the GC riders.

 

[AlfaLum]

I find the O’Connor narrative very strange. Ben got those minutes for free during a breakaway stage where the favorites didnt contest for the win.

Del Toro has gotten all his time wins during stages that were contested by GC Guys. Okay, it was not high mountains, but so far he is just the strongest guy in the race.

And yes he got some kilometers in the wheels from Ineos, but a guy like Roglic had the same with Pidcock/Pellizarri pushing in his group for a long time and Ayuso had the same with guys like Honore and his team mates driving the group.

For me it says a lot that from the bottem of Pinzuto, where Isaac had to do all the work himself, he still gained 40 seconds on the Roglic group.

Maybe he will suffer in week three, but for now unlike O’Connor he has gotten has advantage by being the strongest in the race.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Toro is more liked and has a good relationship with his teammates unlike Ayuso. Deep in their hearts the UAE riders want Toro to win, nonetheless, UAE directors should let the men race it out between themselves.

 

[topcat]

My heart wanted to vote for Del Toro. But it feels like I have watched that movie before, a Cinderella story , I hope that I'll be proven wrong , but I did vote for Ayuso.

So far, Juan is very solid, aggressive, clearly above Roglic, he won't lose more than 30, maybe 40 seconds on the ITT, he has the team.

The plot is UAE team's politics and I hope that we don't see a sequel of '87, and there is a smell of it, at least for me. For Ayuso', you never know if you'll get another chance...

Go ahead Juan, and forget your plans for a vacation in Cancun...Isaac is on the verge of deity status...

Next week's GC and poll shouldn't look too different. I think that Del Toro will survive Asiago. For me, Bernal riding at this level is to watch, and I root for Tiberi. Vai!

'87 turned out well.

 

[yaco]

I find the O’Connor narrative very strange. Ben got those minutes for free during a breakaway stage where the favorites didnt contest for the win.

Del Toro has gotten all his time wins during stages that were contested by GC Guys. Okay, it was not high mountains, but so far he is just the strongest guy in the race.

And yes he got some kilometers in the wheels from Ineos, but a guy like Roglic had the same with Pidcock/Pellizarri pushing in his group for a long time and Ayuso had the same with guys like Honore and his team mates driving the group.

For me it says a lot that from the bottem of Pinzuto, where Isaac had to do all the work himself, he still gained 40 seconds on the Roglic group.

Maybe he will suffer in week three, but for now unlike O’Connor he has gotten has advantage by being the strongest in the race.

O'Connor got his time for two reasons. The first nine stages of the 2024 Vuelta were in extreme heat which resulted in some strange results and secondly he was on a super day. The peleton rode hard for the last 30 or 40kms of the stage and could barely make a dent in his lead.

 

[Lequack]

Wout not strong enough to get away from fans

https://twitter.com/x/status/1924237330157568117

View: https://x.com/opaisdociclismo/status/1924237330157568117

 

[Hugh Januss]

I think if you vote "Other/Vino" you should have to specify who the other is or if you are in fact picking Vino.

 

[Lequack]

UAE rest day

 

[Red Lobster]

As much as I want to vote Del Toro, while he's clearly strong right now I think we'll come to see that yesterday was one of those times being on a super day and race tactics came together for a rider. He's going well and may get a good GC result, but I'm not convinced he avoids some substantial losses to Ayuso and/or Roglic in the high mountains.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Roglic v UAE is perhaps the real poll.

 

[Bolder]

Still on team Ayuso. Didn’t think Roglic would be down by this much, and UAE has the team to keep him there. Del Toro looked great yesterday but it was his home terrain and has little to do with a multi mountain stage. But he could also Kuss his way to a win.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Yeah true, but it was also basically only a 2,6 km climb. So still a big question mark, who will be the best climber of this race in the third week.

Looking at the profiles of the second week now, biggest differences will likely occur now in the TT. In all other stages we will likely only see small differences between the GC riders.

It was also a really soft climb in terms of performance based on watts/kg. They were farrrr below what we’ve seen in recent GTs even from Roglic, Remco, Yates, Almeida, etc. Seems like they chilled then sprinted so not that representative of what’s to come IMO.

 

[hayneplane]

I want it to be Del Toro but it still feels like the sensible bet is Roglic already though it is a concern that he only really has Pellizarri in the form to be a difference maker for a long range attack.

Realistic wish list 1/2/3

Del Toro
Tiberi
Storer

Prediction

Roglic
Ayuso
Tiberi

 

[Cookster15]

I am still surprised at the support for Del Toro's credentials to win this Giro ahead of Ayuso and Roglic. We have had only one MTF and that was a bunch sprint for the GC contenders except for Ayuso who took 4 seconds.

The main reason he looks good was his performance on the sterrato stage. Del Toro looked super strong (confirmed by Bernal's post stage comments). But that is a sample of 1 ?

In the ITT stage 2, Del Toro and Ayuso were split by just one second.

Tuesday's TT will tell us more. But with Del Toro he is such an unknown quantity over three weeks. Not saying it can't happen but if he wins this Giro with what is yet to come it would be a big shock. Also remember how Roglic won in 2023 on the penultimate MTT. We know Rogla is good over three weeks.

More data needed. Might have to wait for the queen stage 16.

My picks today:

1. Roglic
2. Ayuso
3. Bernal