- Mar 13, 2015
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- Feb 20, 2012
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I don't really think Torino gives a great reflection of Lombardia.
So, for me all riders of interest or that are named are
OS
Yates: gonna be up there, but somehow rarely good enough in the monuments. Might top 5
Kreuziger: Don't know how good he's been, but he could surprise and is always strong in the super hard one day races
Haig: Probably domestique, but might be a surprise top 10 or somethign
AG2R
Pozzovivo should be there when the hostilities start on the Civiglio. Top 10 candidate. Not explosive enough or fast enough to be any danger past the Civiglio
Androni
Gonna be interesting what Bernal is gonna do, but this race and this field are gonna be out of his league
Astana
All the eggs in the Aru basket. Aru is no slouch in one day races, won the nats convincingly this year and is usually pretty good in Lombardia. Top 5 condidate for me, cause I think a few others are climbing better or just better one day racers
Bahrain-Merida
All the eggs in Big Bro's basket. Strong team too, they're gonna crack the race open for sure. Nibali is the biggest favorite for me. Was easily the strongest in Emilia, which suited him less, and the climbs and descents suit him to a tee here. Hard to see him get dropped, harder to see him being followed downhill. Biggest danger is strong chasing from behind after the Civiglio. (and he might not get 30s so easily this time)
Bora
Majka is getting overlooked here I think. He's a top notch climber, who's had top 3's in the hardest, climbiest one day races in the world, and I think Majka is a deceptively quick finisher if he arrives with other pure climbers
Cannondale
Uran is a big danger this Saturday. Has been up there in across all the mountainious classics over the years, and seems in great form.
FDJ
Pinot is a weird case for me. I don't think he likes quick transitions like in Torino, but he's definitely more suited to Lombardia and it's really tough course. He has an ok finish, is definitely a podium candidate, but I really think the descents make it really hard for him to win, as he's not gonna go solo from the climbs alone.
Gaudu - same story as Bernal. Though his shape might be a tad better, he actually does have a team leader to bury himself for
Lotto-Soudal
Tim Wellens - I don't believe it for a second. Wellens is a great rouleur on hilly terrain, he's not a climber and not really a puncheur. These climbs are too big, the field is too good and no amount of rain is gonna save him here.
Movistar
Might be there with a few guys after the Muro, but only Nairo Quintana has a shot at winning. Peak for peak the best pure climber in the race probably, but he's had a very hard season, this is not a third week rollercoaster stage with a MTF. Good showing in Milan Torino, he might be one of the best uphill on Saturday, he might be one of the better ones downhill too and he's in with a shot at the podium. While I think there are certain groups in which Quintana might win in a sprint, I don't think he's got a very good shot at winning
Quick Step
Very interesting team.
Gilbert - Hasn't been great on the tougher hills this year, hasn't been great after his crash, will not be anywhere close and is gonna be a domestique
Alaphilippe - It depends. Alejandro Valverde isn't there, so he would normally be the fastest finisher to have a shot at reaching the finish line in the front groupo. Demon descender as well. Was great at the worlds, but in the end, I really think that the Sormano+Civlio+climbing field is gonna take his legs from under him
Dan Martin - The most likely challenger, though descents should be his nightmare here. Don't know if he's goon enough either. I just think he's very likely to get dropped up or down the Civiglio
De la Cruz might surprise
Katusha
Zakarin - might finish close if they do a group ride down the Civiglio. Won't happen. Don't expect him close
Lotto-Jumbo
Kruijswijk might get be seen on screen because of the sheer toughness of the race. May go on an early move
Sky
Just gonna list the whole team here
Kwiat - I think he's done for the year. Don't think he's ever climbed good enough not to get dropped on the Civiglio if top climbers go nuts
Henao - Yeah no. Seems to be still recovering from chasing down Contador in Paris Nice
The Landa - Who knows? Might be the best climber, might not be. Needs to finish solo, incredibly unlikely, and may have to slave for teammates
Moscon - I'll sacrifice my kidney to Vino for the sake of CNF if this happens. However, I really don't think it will. Like for many others, the route is too hard, the field is too strong, and the season too long
Nieve - just for listing purposes. No chance in hell he gets to ride for himself
Poels - Might have a miracle day, but will probably disappoint greatly. Very small chance he gets some team freedom either way
Puccio - Domestique
Rosa - I would normally talk about his chances, but he's about 6th in line in this team lolz
Sunweb
Dumoulin - Left the legs in Bergen. Never really intended to peak beyond the worlds ITT, so not very well rested even though he hasn't done much racing lately
Barguil - The wildest card in the race. Great climber, great descender, decent sprint
Kelderman - For another poker metaphor, this is like 2222 vs AAxx in Omaha
Oomen - Possible top 10. He's been doing well late season, but probably lacks a bit in everything to compete for the win
Matthews - Hell naw.
UAE
Ulissi - Yeah, nah, way too hard
So, for me all riders of interest or that are named are
OS
Yates: gonna be up there, but somehow rarely good enough in the monuments. Might top 5
Kreuziger: Don't know how good he's been, but he could surprise and is always strong in the super hard one day races
Haig: Probably domestique, but might be a surprise top 10 or somethign
AG2R
Pozzovivo should be there when the hostilities start on the Civiglio. Top 10 candidate. Not explosive enough or fast enough to be any danger past the Civiglio
Androni
Gonna be interesting what Bernal is gonna do, but this race and this field are gonna be out of his league
Astana
All the eggs in the Aru basket. Aru is no slouch in one day races, won the nats convincingly this year and is usually pretty good in Lombardia. Top 5 condidate for me, cause I think a few others are climbing better or just better one day racers
Bahrain-Merida
All the eggs in Big Bro's basket. Strong team too, they're gonna crack the race open for sure. Nibali is the biggest favorite for me. Was easily the strongest in Emilia, which suited him less, and the climbs and descents suit him to a tee here. Hard to see him get dropped, harder to see him being followed downhill. Biggest danger is strong chasing from behind after the Civiglio. (and he might not get 30s so easily this time)
Bora
Majka is getting overlooked here I think. He's a top notch climber, who's had top 3's in the hardest, climbiest one day races in the world, and I think Majka is a deceptively quick finisher if he arrives with other pure climbers
Cannondale
Uran is a big danger this Saturday. Has been up there in across all the mountainious classics over the years, and seems in great form.
FDJ
Pinot is a weird case for me. I don't think he likes quick transitions like in Torino, but he's definitely more suited to Lombardia and it's really tough course. He has an ok finish, is definitely a podium candidate, but I really think the descents make it really hard for him to win, as he's not gonna go solo from the climbs alone.
Gaudu - same story as Bernal. Though his shape might be a tad better, he actually does have a team leader to bury himself for
Lotto-Soudal
Tim Wellens - I don't believe it for a second. Wellens is a great rouleur on hilly terrain, he's not a climber and not really a puncheur. These climbs are too big, the field is too good and no amount of rain is gonna save him here.
Movistar
Might be there with a few guys after the Muro, but only Nairo Quintana has a shot at winning. Peak for peak the best pure climber in the race probably, but he's had a very hard season, this is not a third week rollercoaster stage with a MTF. Good showing in Milan Torino, he might be one of the best uphill on Saturday, he might be one of the better ones downhill too and he's in with a shot at the podium. While I think there are certain groups in which Quintana might win in a sprint, I don't think he's got a very good shot at winning
Quick Step
Very interesting team.
Gilbert - Hasn't been great on the tougher hills this year, hasn't been great after his crash, will not be anywhere close and is gonna be a domestique
Alaphilippe - It depends. Alejandro Valverde isn't there, so he would normally be the fastest finisher to have a shot at reaching the finish line in the front groupo. Demon descender as well. Was great at the worlds, but in the end, I really think that the Sormano+Civlio+climbing field is gonna take his legs from under him
Dan Martin - The most likely challenger, though descents should be his nightmare here. Don't know if he's goon enough either. I just think he's very likely to get dropped up or down the Civiglio
De la Cruz might surprise
Katusha
Zakarin - might finish close if they do a group ride down the Civiglio. Won't happen. Don't expect him close
Lotto-Jumbo
Kruijswijk might get be seen on screen because of the sheer toughness of the race. May go on an early move
Sky
Just gonna list the whole team here
Kwiat - I think he's done for the year. Don't think he's ever climbed good enough not to get dropped on the Civiglio if top climbers go nuts
Henao - Yeah no. Seems to be still recovering from chasing down Contador in Paris Nice
The Landa - Who knows? Might be the best climber, might not be. Needs to finish solo, incredibly unlikely, and may have to slave for teammates
Moscon - I'll sacrifice my kidney to Vino for the sake of CNF if this happens. However, I really don't think it will. Like for many others, the route is too hard, the field is too strong, and the season too long
Nieve - just for listing purposes. No chance in hell he gets to ride for himself
Poels - Might have a miracle day, but will probably disappoint greatly. Very small chance he gets some team freedom either way
Puccio - Domestique
Rosa - I would normally talk about his chances, but he's about 6th in line in this team lolz
Sunweb
Dumoulin - Left the legs in Bergen. Never really intended to peak beyond the worlds ITT, so not very well rested even though he hasn't done much racing lately
Barguil - The wildest card in the race. Great climber, great descender, decent sprint
Kelderman - For another poker metaphor, this is like 2222 vs AAxx in Omaha
Oomen - Possible top 10. He's been doing well late season, but probably lacks a bit in everything to compete for the win
Matthews - Hell naw.
UAE
Ulissi - Yeah, nah, way too hard
- Apr 16, 2009
- 17,478
- 6,637
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I like that route. Very nice. It is a pity that Chaves will be absent.
Everyone has said it. Nibali and Uran the big favorites.
Not sure why cyclingnews give any chance to Gilbert or Wellens.
Everyone has said it. Nibali and Uran the big favorites.
Not sure why cyclingnews give any chance to Gilbert or Wellens.
- Mar 13, 2015
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- Mar 13, 2015
- 7,658
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Re: Re:
why would he lie...the man said he has good legs and I believe him....
Dont buy in to this cynical view all the time
Red Rick said:
why would he lie...the man said he has good legs and I believe him....
Dont buy in to this cynical view all the time
- Mar 13, 2015
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Re:
Didnt bother to include either of the 2 British riders 1) who was second today at Milan Torino and climbed the last climb very fast 2) the rider who won Giro della Toscana
Red Rick said:
Didnt bother to include either of the 2 British riders 1) who was second today at Milan Torino and climbed the last climb very fast 2) the rider who won Giro della Toscana
- May 13, 2015
- 2,165
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It's way too hard for Kwai, Moscon, Alaphilippe, Gilbert, Wellens..
This is a climber's course. It will be like last year. Most riders will get dropped on the penultimate climb which is a Vuelta-like cat 1. mountain.
It's between Nibali, Pinot and Uran. Maybe Yates too. But I'd like to see Landa to well here.
This is a climber's course. It will be like last year. Most riders will get dropped on the penultimate climb which is a Vuelta-like cat 1. mountain.
It's between Nibali, Pinot and Uran. Maybe Yates too. But I'd like to see Landa to well here.
- Mar 13, 2015
- 7,658
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- 23,180
Re:
I am not sure if you were watching the Vuelta but Moscon did pretty well on those cat 1 climbs
Kwai said today that he does not have form
Gilbert has said it too hard for him
However Wellens has said that its not bad for him and he has good legs
Not sure about Allaphilipe ...maybe he works for Dan Martin
Mollema is a good climber .... but maybe his season is done
WheelofGear said:
I am not sure if you were watching the Vuelta but Moscon did pretty well on those cat 1 climbs
Kwai said today that he does not have form
Gilbert has said it too hard for him
However Wellens has said that its not bad for him and he has good legs
Not sure about Allaphilipe ...maybe he works for Dan Martin
Mollema is a good climber .... but maybe his season is done
- Feb 20, 2012
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- 40,289
- 28,180
Re: Re:
Most telling thing I saw was that Moscon, who roasted Nibali a number of times on the short climbs of the Vuelta, got roasted himself in Emilia. Moscon might just have had the longest season. He's done all the major classics, and I don't think he's in it with a shot.
A lot has been said about Moscon coming 13th on the Angliru. That was still over 2 minutes down from Nibali with cracked ribs, though Moscon had pulled for Froome. Differences are gonna be big enough still on a pure climbing course like this.HelloDolly said:
Most telling thing I saw was that Moscon, who roasted Nibali a number of times on the short climbs of the Vuelta, got roasted himself in Emilia. Moscon might just have had the longest season. He's done all the major classics, and I don't think he's in it with a shot.
- May 17, 2013
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Listen to the words of the new God of predictions, you mortals.
Nibali and Uran are the favorites. But three Scenarii.
1. A break that big teams like, don't chase, believing in their guy to win or podium. Watch for Gaudu to beat Bernal, again. Maybe not ftw though.
2. Solo win, a rider escapes in the final climb or descent. Nibali? and fragmented groups, Pinot and Uran for the podium probably.
3. Conservative, small group sprint, if Alaphilippe is still there, he wins. Pinot 3rd.
But I'll stick with my early 2017 prediction: Tibopino will win this bike race. If Visconti goes, Gaudu will match him, or Gaudu/Mollard can do their own decoy, keep Pinot following the chasers. Red kite, if it's Uran-Nibali-Pinot (and maybe the Inca mummy), there will be games and for the life of me Thibaut will destroy them.
Allez Thibaut!!!
Nibali and Uran are the favorites. But three Scenarii.
1. A break that big teams like, don't chase, believing in their guy to win or podium. Watch for Gaudu to beat Bernal, again. Maybe not ftw though.
2. Solo win, a rider escapes in the final climb or descent. Nibali? and fragmented groups, Pinot and Uran for the podium probably.
3. Conservative, small group sprint, if Alaphilippe is still there, he wins. Pinot 3rd.
But I'll stick with my early 2017 prediction: Tibopino will win this bike race. If Visconti goes, Gaudu will match him, or Gaudu/Mollard can do their own decoy, keep Pinot following the chasers. Red kite, if it's Uran-Nibali-Pinot (and maybe the Inca mummy), there will be games and for the life of me Thibaut will destroy them.
Allez Thibaut!!!
- Apr 3, 2016
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Nibali looks like the biggest favourite and I root for him and the final is just tailormade for him.
Rosa winning would be awesome as well but I don't think he will be the leader and he didn't look good in autumn races.
I also think Poels will get a good result. He was very strong on Angliru and the race suits him as well. (Though I don't like him)
Rosa winning would be awesome as well but I don't think he will be the leader and he didn't look good in autumn races.
I also think Poels will get a good result. He was very strong on Angliru and the race suits him as well. (Though I don't like him)
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