Publicus said:That's going to require some assistance from Andy Schleck, Evans and Sastre. They also need to get that kind of time on Armstrong and Levi. I think Stage 13, 15 and each of the stages after the final rest day will be critical.
If I'm Contador, I try to grab the yellow jersey on 13 (Lance is going for on 15 (mark my words)). No race radios on 13, so whatever plan they leave the bus with is it (and I expect both he and Lance to attempt to deviate). If he succeeds, he'll be the sole protected rider on the way up to Verbier which would put a serious dent in Mr. Armstrong's plans.
Unless he puts in some serious time into Lance, that still won't solve anything. What if AC has the yellow over LA on Verbier by 2 secs (or a miniscule amount) and he gets dropped by another contender like in 2007 on the stage up the Aubisque when he couldn't hold onto Rasmussen or Levi and finished down on Levi? I think in that instance LA can attack him since Astana would have a chance to win the Tour. Same if it's the other way round with LA with the jersey and he gets dropped. If they are both riding the way the are riding currently, either one of them will need minutes to be protected not just seconds.