Is Schleck betting everything on the Tourmalet?

[Anonymous]

It appears that Schleck may be waiting for the Tourmalet to try and take major time out of Bertie. It would seem to be a very risky strategy however it may be his best shot at winning the tour.

Can Schelck crack AC on the Tourmalet and if so will he take the 1:30 to 2:00 he needs to defend in the ITT?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

In my book never.

 

[theyoungest]

Contador is starting to look more comfortable every day, and Schleck... not so much. Also, Contador has stated that the Tourmalet is his favourite climb. 1+1= Contador crushes Andy on the Tourmalet.

 

[saganftw]

they are even,which is quite boring because sooner or later they decide to cowork

 

[red_flanders]

It appears that Schleck may be waiting for the Tourmalet to try and take major time out of Bertie. It would seem to be a very risky strategy however it may be his best shot at winning the tour.

Can Schelck crack AC on the Tourmalet and if so will he take the 1:30 to 2:00 he needs to defend in the ITT?

I don't know what else he could be thinking, but I see no evidence that he's got the ability to crack Contador.

Contador needs a stage win. He's going to give it all he can to get one on the Tourmalet.

 

[Anonymous]

I don't know what else he could be thinking, but I see no evidence that he's got the ability to crack Contador.

Contador needs a stage win. He's going to give it all he can to get one on the Tourmalet.

Schleck has me scratching my head. He either thinks he can crush Berie on the Tourmalet or 31 seconds is enough cushion for the ITT.

I know he needs more time but I'm wondering if he (Schleck) does?

 

[Rob_Roy]

It appears that Schleck may be waiting for the Tourmalet to try and take major time out of Bertie. It would seem to be a very risky strategy however it may be his best shot at winning the tour.

Can Schelck crack AC on the Tourmalet and if so will he take the 1:30 to 2:00 he needs to defend in the ITT?

It will be tough for AS I think.AC has shown that he can handle rest days pretty good.
Tourmalet after a rest day is a Pita though and anything can happen.

We might see some very heavy legs on that stage....

I think that Schleck has to go for it tomorrow,if Not I think AC will be on top of the podium again....

 

[Delicato]

I also believe that the Andy's words on "going all-in" tomorrow are just another part of mind games, and so, yes, he plans on some serious attack on Tourmalet.

However, one may assume that Tourmalet just can be a stalemate stage(reminescent to the Mont-Ventoux last year) with AC-AS dropping everyone but failing to take time on each other.

 

[roundabout]

I think Schleck has a better idea of his own ability (obviously) and how Contador is riding in a particular stage. Attacking when Contador can counter is worse than doing nothing (for now).

 

[red_flanders]

Schleck has me scratching my head. He either thinks he can crush Berie on the Tourmalet or 31 seconds is enough cushion for the ITT.

I know he needs more time but I'm wondering if he (Schleck) does?

I'm with you. I think he's trying to put pressure on Contador, assert his place as the leader, and hope AC cracks at some point. There is pressure on AC to find a stage win now, and tomorrow and the Tourmalet are his best bets.

Every day w/o a stage win puts pressure on AC. Every day he gains no time puts pressure on AS. It's poker game, and it will all be decided on the Tourmalet unless someone cracks unexpectedly in the next two days.

 

[nia O'Malley]

I also believe that the Andy's words on "going all-in" tomorrow are just another part of mind games, and so, yes, he plans on some serious attack on Tourmalet.

However, one may assume that Tourmalet just can be a stalemate stage(reminescent to the Mont-Ventoux last year) with AC-AS dropping everyone but failing to take time on each other.

They're going up it twice though. Surely something or someone will give.

 

[erader]

Schleck has me scratching my head. He either thinks he can crush Berie on the Tourmalet or 31 seconds is enough cushion for the ITT.
I know he needs more time but I'm wondering if he (Schleck) does?

or else he doesn't know what to do and is biding his time. they looked equal in strength today and that's to AC's advantage.

erader

 

[El Pistolero]

Hmm, I think Schleck can crush Contador on the Tourmalet. I'd rather not see that happen, but Schleck seems a lot stronger then last year.

And winning a Tour without a single stage victory is kinda lame, so that puts extra pressure on Contador.

 

[pedaling squares]

Can Schelck crack AC on the Tourmalet and if so will he take the 1:30 to 2:00 he needs to defend in the ITT?

It would not surprise me if either of these two cracked the other, there have to be some intense attacks on that stage for AS to win the overall. But I can't see him putting the additional ~90 seconds into AC that he needs to survive the ITT.

 

[bobs nob]

I don't know what else he could be thinking, but I see no evidence that he's got the ability to crack Contador.

Contador needs a stage win. He's going to give it all he can to get one on the Tourmalet.

Some guys give absolutely no warning before cracking. Maybe Andy sees something we don't. We get to see the two of 'em riding together MAYBE 2 minutes total each stage. They spend the whole day looking at each other.

 

[scribe]

or else he doesn't know what to do and is biding his time. they looked equal in strength today and that's to AC's advantage.

erader

I think it makes sense for Shrek to continue to feel out Contador over the course of the Pyrenees. He is just started today and AC laid everything Astana had out on the board in an attempt to put Shrek under pressure. The only item playing into AC's advantage at this point is that he can mark Shrek's wheel and take the bite out of him in ITT. It would be pretty spectacular if Riis and AS can figure out how to put an additional minute on Contador somewhere here.

 

[henryg]

In the end Andy Schleck MUST get time on Contador in the mountains. So far he has lost 10 seconds and tied. He is running out of hills. Contador has Contador's legs, Navarro and Vino. He also can crush Schleck in the ITT. That to me leaves the deck stacked in Contador's favor big time. While Schleck has proved he is able to keep up with Contador that's not good enough. It's Andy who has to make the move in the Pyrenees and it has to be a big one.

If I had to wager money it would not be on Schleck at this point.

 

[erader]

In the end Andy Schleck MUST get time on Contador in the mountains. So far he has lost 10 seconds and tied. He is running out of hills. Contador has Contador's legs, Navarro and Vino. He also can crush Schleck in the ITT. That to me leaves the deck stacked in Contador's favor big time. While Schleck has proved he is able to keep up with Contador that's not good enough. It's Andy who has to make the move in the Pyrenees and it has to be a big one.

If I had to wager money it would not be on Schleck at this point.

hard to bet on a guy that can't TT. if schleck cracks he could lose second to menchov.

erader

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I think people are greatly overplaying how much time Contador will get in the TT. Right now the gap favours him but not by much in my opinion - if Schleck managed to take 15 secs from somewhere in the next few days I would make the TT a coin toss

Remember we see year after year that TT form goes out of the window on the final weekend - the specialists don't do anywhere near as well as expected against the climbers who are high up on GC. It's much less a question of technique and much more a question of strength and recovery

 

[scribe]

I think people are greatly overplaying how much time Contador will get in the TT. Right now the gap favours him but not by much in my opinion - if Schleck managed to take 15 secs from somewhere in the next few days I would make the TT a coin toss

Remember we see year after year that TT form goes out of the window on the final weekend - the specialists don't do anywhere near as well as expected against the climbers who are high up on GC. It's much less a question of technique and much more a question of strength and recovery

Yes. But it is much more fun to assume Contador is an overwhelming favorite in the ITT and then hope for a different reality.

 

[Jamsque]

Andy needs time, Andy knows he needs time. He's taking a terrible risk if he waits until stage 17 to the Tourmalet to take it, especially as it comes after the rest day. Stage 16 has too much flat after the last summit and Astana look too strong for an early attack to work, so tomorrow looks like an opportunity he cannot afford to pass up.

He might be able to do it, too. Contador hasn't looked weak, per se, but I think it's fair to say he hasn't looked as strong as he did last year. I've grown used to seeing Alberto drop absolutely everyone in the high mountains, pretty much at will, but when he attacked on the final climb today not only was Andy able to stay with him every single time, but Denis Menchov even managed to hang on once or twice. If Andy sees even a hint of a chink in Contador's armour tomorrow he needs to attack.

[edit]This word filter situation is OUT OF CONTROL. Chink is a legitimate word, I haven't heard anyone using it as a racial slur since I left primary school.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I think people are greatly overplaying how much time Contador will get in the TT. Right now the gap favours him but not by much in my opinion - if Schleck managed to take 15 secs from somewhere in the next few days I would make the TT a coin toss

Remember we see year after year that TT form goes out of the window on the final weekend - the specialists don't do anywhere near as well as expected against the climbers who are high up on GC. It's much less a question of technique and much more a question of strength and recovery

last years final 40 km itt

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31
21 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:44

 

[Jamsque]

Just as Andy can't afford to assume that he'll lose less time to Alberto than he did last year, neither can Alberto assume that he'll gain as much time on Andy as he did last year.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

that was 40 km. make that 50 and andy needs at least 2 minutes to be in contention for winning the tour.

 

[La Pandera]

Just as Andy can't afford to assume that he'll lose less time to Alberto than he did last year, neither can Alberto assume that he'll gain as much time on Andy as he did last year.

That would explain Contador's efforts to attack Andy but it baffles me that Andy is content to wait to try to measure Contador's climbing prowess versus his own. Andy has a rep of not really showing as much as others when he's really in trouble. Is it possible that Contador's attacks are putting him into difficulty that he's able to mask?