Is Schleck betting everything on the Tourmalet?

[killswitch]

that was 40 km. make that 50 and andy needs at least 2 minutes to be in contention for winning the tour.

The Annecy TT was hilly, this one isn't.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

last years final 40 km itt

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31
21 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:44

I am aware of last year's result and the mistake people are making in assuming that Contador 2009 = Contador 2010 and Schleck 2009 = Schleck 2010

What that result does prove is you can throw the formbook out of the window as I said. How else can Contador beat arguably the greatest TT specialist of all time ?

 

[El Pistolero]

I am aware of last year's result and the mistake people are making in assuming that Contador 2009 = Contador 2010 and Schleck 2009 = Schleck 2010

What that result does prove is you can throw the formbook out of the window as I said. How else can Contador beat arguably the greatest TT specialist of all time ?

I assume you mean Cancellara. Cancellara was probably tired already from all the climbing stages. And he clearly doesn't recuperate quite as well as Contador after 2 weeks of racing.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The Annecy TT was hilly, this one isn't.

Which makes it even better for Contador.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I am aware of last year's result and the mistake people are making in assuming that Contador 2009 = Contador 2010 and Schleck 2009 = Schleck 2010

What that result does prove is you can throw the formbook out of the window as I said. How else can Contador beat arguably the greatest TT specialist of all time ?

because cancellara is barely better in itt than contador.

 

[hrotha]

I assume you mean Cancellara. Cancellara was probably tired already from all the climbing stages. And he clearly doesn't recuperate quite as well as Contador after 2 weeks of racing.

That was his point, yes.

Frankly I don't see AS and AC being too comfortable with the current situation. AS needs time the most, but as things stand it wouldn't be impossible for him to keep the jersey after the TT.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I assume you mean Cancellara. Cancellara was probably tired already from all the climbing stages. And he clearly doesn't recuperate quite as well as Contador after 2 weeks of racing.

Exactly. The mountains are a great leveller

Schleck is becoming a strong rider on the flat - you only have to see what happened on the cobbles. You have to have a good engine to finish with the group he finished with that day. Who really knows what he's capable of in a long TT now with an extra year to have worked on his TT ?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Exactly. The mountains are a great leveller

Schleck is becoming a strong rider on the flat - you only have to see what happened on the cobbles. You have to have a good engine to finish with the group he finished with that day. Who really knows what he's capable of in a long TT now with an extra year to have worked on his TT ?

and contador hasn't worked on his itt?? contador was an itt specialist from the time he was a junior. andy never was.

 

[El Pistolero]

Exactly. The mountains are a great leveller

Schleck is becoming a strong rider on the flat - you only have to see what happened on the cobbles. You have to have a good engine to finish with the group he finished with that day. Who really knows what he's capable of in a long TT now with an extra year to have worked on his TT ?

In last year's Time Trial Contador took more time on Schleck on the flat stages then on the climb.

And you can't compare a normal flat stage with a cobbles stage. AS was wheel-sucking the second greatest classics specialist of the current peloton.

 

[roundabout]

God, not the Contador was a specialist shyt again.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

and contador hasn't worked on his itt?? contador was an itt specialist from the time he was a junior. andy never was.

I agree Andy has a lot more scope for improvement than Alberto

Anyway I think I made my point and this is all hypothetical - one of them could drop five minutes by the weekend

 

[Ryaguas]

1+1= Contador crushes Andy on the Tourmalet

LOL

Well as everybody has said the pressure is on Andy cuz he needs more time for the final TT... He is playing a terrible and risky game not attacking and trying to put more time on El Pistolero...

Today We saw 3 attacks from El Pistolero, none from Andy... that leave a lot of possibilities to take...

1. Andy didn't has the legs to attack he was gone and was just following AC's wheel.
2. He was good but didn't want to take risk cuz this climb didn't suit him.
3. Andy wasn't good but was playing mind games no attacking...
4. El Pistolero was really good (as Andy said) but was playing mind games too waiting for Andy's attack for then counterattack and make Andy crack big time.
5.El Pistolero wasn't good, he tried to attack but as he didn't has the legs he just sat and marked Andy.
6. I dunno other option

If Andy is waiting for La Col du Tourmalet to attack he is crazy... he will never beat El Pistolero in Le Tourmalet also this is his favorite climb and is where he is going to full attack like he did in Verbier last year...

This attack in La Col du Tourmalet will be soooooo faking great that will be remembered for centuries haha

 

[La Pandera]

God, not the Contador was a specialist shyt again.

You can't handle the truth!

 

[richwagmn]

AC's climbing certainly seems weaker this year or the other riders are much better.

I can't figure out where AS is going to take time on AC. If I'm Astana, why not just ride tempo so AC is fresh and can respond easily to AS?

 

[therhodeo]

Berto, Bertie, Alberto, all ok. Calling him "El Pistolero" everytime you refer to him makes you seem a bit obsessed.

 

[Ryaguas]

Berto, Bertie, Alberto, all ok. Calling him "El Pistolero" everytime you refer to him makes you seem a bit obsessed.

Nah... for me is easy to call him in that way... French and Spanish are my main languages... so... write El Pistolero is normal to me... is like when you see "Amstrong" or "Chris Horner" another english name... for me write that is kind of boring... write "El Pistolero" is easy...

You should try another languages you know... then you would understand about what I'm talking about...

 

[The Hitch]

Its looking to me increasingly like Schleck sees his chances of winning the tour as being dependent on contador getting a puncture or crashing or some other such misfortune.

Mathematically speaking


P (Contador misfortune)= 0.05
P (Menchov/ samu overtake schleck) = 0.1

P (Schleck wins tour, providing he isnt good enough to beat contador fair and square ) = 0.04

which at this stage are odds Schleck should be pretty happy with.

 

[Publicus]

I am aware of last year's result and the mistake people are making in assuming that Contador 2009 = Contador 2010 and Schleck 2009 = Schleck 2010

What that result does prove is you can throw the formbook out of the window as I said. How else can Contador beat arguably the greatest TT specialist of all time ?

There was a Cat 3 climb in the middle of the course, at which point AC held a 46" advantage over Cancellara. He won by 3". If the course had been a 100 meters longer, he would have finished second.

 

[Publicus]

Exactly. The mountains are a great leveller

Schleck is becoming a strong rider on the flat - you only have to see what happened on the cobbles. You have to have a good engine to finish with the group he finished with that day. Who really knows what he's capable of in a long TT now with an extra year to have worked on his TT ?

What happened on the cobbles was Saxo Bank had the strongest cobble team and when Frank crashed, he held up most of the GC contenders. Andy held onto Cancellara's wheel. Nothing more, nothing less.

If anything, the prologue should give you an example of power across the flats.

 

[Publicus]

LOL

Well as everybody has said the pressure is on Andy cuz he needs more time for the final TT... He is playing a terrible and risky game not attacking and trying to put more time on El Pistolero...

Today We saw 3 attacks from El Pistolero, none from Andy... that leave a lot of possibilities to take...

1. Andy didn't has the legs to attack he was gone and was just following AC's wheel.
2. He was good but didn't want to take risk cuz this climb didn't suit him.
3. Andy wasn't good but was playing mind games no attacking...
4. El Pistolero was really good (as Andy said) but was playing mind games too waiting for Andy's attack for then counterattack and make Andy crack big time.
5.El Pistolero wasn't good, he tried to attack but as he didn't has the legs he just sat and marked Andy.
6. I dunno other option

If Andy is waiting for La Col du Tourmalet to attack he is crazy... he will never beat El Pistolero in Le Tourmalet also this is his favorite climb and is where he is going to full attack like he did in Verbier last year...

This attack in La Col du Tourmalet will be soooooo faking great that will be remembered for centuries haha

Here's your answer from the horse's mouth (pun intended):

"The tactic for today was that I would stick on his wheel. I don't like the last climb too much as it is a bit similar to the one in Mende. It was clear that I should not pass him because he would have attacked me and again gain seconds on me," Schleck said.

Schleck knows that with the 52km-long time trial in Bordeaux heavily in Contador's favor, he cannot keep up the same tactics through the rest of the mountain stages.

The fifteenth stage to Bagnères-de-Luchon on Monday features another Hors Categorie climb, the Port de Balès, and according to Schleck that climb could be the time to go 'all-in'. At 19.3 kilometres, it's a long enough climb to do damage, although the first half is a relatively gentle gradient.

"Tomorrow it's different and I might go 'all in' because I have to take time back on him," Schleck said.

 

[No_Balls]

Let us just look at Rotterdams prologue:


http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/97th-tour-de-france-gt/prologue/results

AC: 6
AS: 122

Schleck lost over a minute in a TT that was nearly 9 kilometer. Imagine what it would look like with 50 kilometers?

I am not sure that even two minutes over AC would be enough in the mountains, and that is a speculation since even though conta hasn´t looked "last-year-good", he surely handles everything that is thrown against him.

Time is running short for AS. And i really don´t know what the guy is doing with his time.

 

[ozymandias]

There was a Cat 3 climb in the middle of the course, at which point AC held a 46" advantage over Cancellara. He won by 3". If the course had been a 100 meters longer, he would have finished second.

Also, if I recall, Cancellara was upset that he lost, because he believed Contador gained some time at the end by drafting behind a car.

 

[Publicus]

Also, if I recall, Cancellara was upset that he lost, because he believed Contador gained some time at the end by drafting behind a car.

That was a popular claim with the Saxo Bank guys last year. Recall that Andy said AC got a draft off of the moto on Arcalis as well.

 

[Ryaguas]

Here's your answer from the horse's mouth (pun intended):

I read the article don't worry... I want to know what is REALLY happening... not just polite declarations... as I heard once from an spanish friend "El puede decir misa pero es no es necesariamente verdad" in english would be something like "He can say anything he want but that is not necessarily true"...

I want the truth... WTH is happening... who has better legs? who was playing mind games and who was almost cracked?

I've been seeing the replay and AC was making faces... He wasn't good...? that was real or he was giving a reason to Andy to attack to then make an "all in" attack?

 

[Publicus]

I read the article don't worry... I want to know what is REALLY happening... not just polite declarations... as I heard once from an spanish friend "El puede decir misa pero es no es necesariamente verdad" in english would be something like "He can say anything he want but that is not necessarily true"...

I want the truth... WTH is happening... who has better legs? who was playing mind games and who was almost cracked?

I've been seeing the replay and AC was making faces... He wasn't good...? that was real or he was giving a reason to Andy to attack to then make an "all in" attack?

My guess is you'll have your first answer tomorrow.