State of the Peloton 2026

[Krzysztof_O]

I think it's still pretty big.

But you're always at the least dealing with fatigue from previous stages, less than ideal weather, and in the case of the TdF and Vuelta, a lot of heat most of the times.

Also altitude, especially for long climbs matters a lot more compared to lab tests, and I thin the fatigue even in easy unipuerto stages plays a considerable role.

It makes sense. Higher altitude (than in a lab) is probably the most important followed by general cumulative fatigue (from conditions, previous stages, previous kms etc) and unoptimal pacing. We never see those sci-fi values in races, not even close. In fact the closest was PdB (which was actually a hard stage after another hard stage), that's why I said that for top dogs the difference is small (fresh/non-fresh) but the pacing was perfect then.

 

[Red Rick]

It makes sense. Higher altitude (than in a lab) is probably the most important followed by general cumulative fatigue (from conditions, previous stages, previous kms etc) and unoptimal pacing. We never see those sci-fi values in races, not even close. In fact the closest was PdB (which was actually a hard stage after another hard stage), that's why I said that for top dogs the difference is small (fresh/non-fresh) but the pacing was perfect then.

For top dogs it's obviously gonna be smaller, but with PdB in particular I think there's a combination of the gentle 25km before the base really helping recovery for the best, a very noticable tailwind ignored by nearly all calculations I've seen and Pogacar's lab values being unknown so we probably also underrate how crazy those are.

One thing we may actually infer quite a bit from is the watts we get from hour record attempts, because at least you'd often have a flat out 60 minute effort at sea level, and then you have the caveats of a compromised position (for watts), a flat surface (less watts for most riders) and a nonclimber.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

For top dogs it's obviously gonna be smaller, but with PdB in particular I think there's a combination of the gentle 25km before the base really helping recovery for the best, a very noticable tailwind ignored by nearly all calculations I've seen and Pogacar's lab values being unknown so we probably also underrate how crazy those are.

One thing we may actually infer quite a bit from is the watts we get from hour record attempts, because at least you'd often have a flat out 60 minute effort at sea level, and then you have the caveats of a compromised position (for watts), a flat surface (less watts for most riders) and a nonclimber.

I would have to take a look at hour record watts.

This would probably mean that they can likely utilize around 90% of VO2max in lab for an hour. Also it's likely that shorter efforts i.e. 10-15 minutes in race conditions should be closer to lab numbers (relatively) than longer efforts due to less altitude influence and a higher chance of strong pacing for the whole climb.

 

[Red Rick]

I would have to take a look at hour record watts.

This would probably mean that they can likely utilize around 90% of VO2max in lab for an hour. Also it's likely that shorter efforts i.e. 10-15 minutes in race conditions should be closer to lab numbers (relatively) than longer efforts due to less altitude influence and a higher chance of strong pacing for the whole climb.

Apparently Ganna said he did 480 for an hour, which would be 5.5-5.8W/kg depending on his precize weight most likely. Now in an hour record they push the temp a bit high so riders overheat too.

 

[Peyresourde]

Pogacar probably has not done a lab effort in years and neither have many of the other top riders. So they don't even know themselves what they could push in perfect conditions. Pure MTTs are also very rare.

If you project Peyragudes to sea level, he might have been able to push 7.6 -7.7 eW/kg for 20+ minutes. If these are not sci-fi watts, I don't know what you expect. He might have also pushed pretty insane watts on his Coll de Rates record (after 50k of riding), but his draft% is unknown.

 

[Rob5091]

ABP busts are getting teams DQ - Continental Team Medellin – EPM and Continental Team Feirense Beeceler both caught by the two busts and the teams are banned.

 

[Tim Cahill]

From Peloton;

"Hey all, CMB here, author of the original piece that was published by Escape Collective in early Feb. Interesting thread and I wanted to chime in as I think it's important that the point isn't missed. For those doubting why this is relevant and questioning if it's really a story since no doping substances were found, the issue here is Pepe Martí. He is banned for 15 years due to doping. No athlete - amateur or professional - should have any working relationship with him. What is most worrying is that the Soler case is not an isolated case involving Martí. Hopefully I'm in a position to share more in the next few weeks. "

More to come.

 

[Rob5091]

Oooh! Dodgy Spanish trainer has a bunch of clients. Quelle surprise!

 

[houtdffan]

Saunier-Duval already full gas. Bank Robbers also were full gas

Red Bull, hopefully, brought in all of Mapei's regimen at least

 

[Pozzovivo]

Why speculate about doping when the evidence of cheating with a larger probable impact than drugs are apparent for everyone to see? I’m referring to the motorbikes deciding MSR, of course. It’s ridiculous.

 

[Rob5091]

Wehbi Abdullah gets done for Stanozolol.(last day at the 5 stages race so he was feeling probably pooped)
https://ita.sport/news/the-ita-noti...ah-of-an-apparent-anti-doping-rule-violation/

The ITA reports that a sample from the rider collected during an in-competition testing mission conducted by the ITA during the 2026 Tour of Sharjah on 27 January 2026 returned an AAF¹ for stanozolol.

At PCS - https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/abdullah-wehbi

 

[ingsve]

Suddenly a new rider is able to leave everyone behind with almost no effort a la Pogaçar, the race is already set and done. There is no possibility of using tactis against this type of riders, they are monsters and are able to personally answer to any attack and even make a 100km solo attack against the peloton and win.

This will perhaps be the lasting legacy of the alien era. Or the alien era becomes the new normal. Once riders have understood that this type of attack is possible and successful then there is little drawback for them to do it over and over again as long as it keeps working. If you instead had to always wait until the end and attack in the final climb or in the final sprint for example then you and your team would constantly have to be dealing with neutralizing attacks from dangerous competitors and generally keeping pace in the peloton so by attacking early and going solo you preempt all of that and it makes life if not easier than at least more predictable than otherwise.

This used to be the old normal as well if you go back 60 years or more. Coppi and Merckx were known for even longer solo rides back in the day.

What I think changed since at least the 90s was that even the domestiques were full of EPO so they had almost unlimited resources to being attackers back. As much as EPO boosted performance it sort of also evened it out in a sense. So this likely dominated how cycling was raced at least until say 2010 or longer but now as the sport has cleaned up at least compared to how it was at its worst then the level difference between the best and the domestiques has gotten wider again so you can't just bring anyone back in the same way as they good when juicing.

 

[the asian]

This will perhaps be the lasting legacy of the alien era. Or the alien era becomes the new normal. Once riders have understood that this type of attack is possible and successful then there is little drawback for them to do it over and over again as long as it keeps working. If you instead had to always way until the end and attack in the final climb or in the final sprint for example then you and your team would constantly have to be dealing with neutralizing attacks from dangerous competitors and generally keeping pace in the peloton so by attacking early and going solo you preempt all of that and it makes life if not easier than at least more predictable than otherwise.

This used to be the old normal as well if you go back 60 years or more. Coppi and Merckx were known for even longer solo rides back in the day.

What I think changed since at least the 90s was that even the domestiques were full of EPO so they had almost unlimited resources to being attackers back. As much as EPO boosted performance it sort of also evened it out in a sense. So this likely dominated how cycling was raced at least until say 2010 or longer but now as the sport has cleaned up at least compared to how it was at its worst then the level difference between the best and the domestiques has gotten wider again so you can't just bring anyone back in the same way as they good when juicing.

Agree. In the 2000s and 2010s we were complaining when the attackers and strongest riders were caught amd wheelsuckers such as Gerrans or Valverede waited until the final climb or uphill drag to win races. Ronde, LBL and Lombardia all underwent course changes which favour long range atatcks. Now , we are fed up with how the strongest riders attack early and are able to power away solo to victory. n

We may need parcours changes to the above mentioned three classics so that they are less selective and allow a larger spread of riders to contest for victory. The Puncheurs have been put out of contention in LBL and even the Ronde favours the more hilly cobbled guys with the Kwaremont-Pateberg double ascent finale.

Even Boonen would not be able to win this Ronde course against MVDP and Pogacar.

 

[noob]

Note my nick before you make fun of this noob question;

Could there theoretically (or practically) be any kind of drug or combination of drugs that gets better results the longer an athlete has been on them? IE almost like a "reversed tolerance".

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

Healy's form is awful, and Simmons isn't the same rider he was in 2025, like almost everyone at LIDL except Pedersen and Hector Alvarez.

I have the feeling that the peloton is weakened. LIDL, EF, and UAE are all weaker, with the exception of their leaders. Pedersen (I mentioned Alvarez, Ayuso but only in Algarve), UAE Pogacar and Vermeersh, who is maintaining the good level he had demostrated at Lotto before his injury. And Del Toro as a puncheur.
UAE is reminding me of its early year (2019-2022), when only Pogacar stood out in major races, with Aru and Henao performing woefully. Almeida's performance in the Volta looks like Aru and Henao. Although they have a better teeam now than they did back then.

At Visma, half the team has improved, and the other half hasn't. Tulett is climbing better than the entire UAE team in Itzulia and Nordhagen in Volta better than Almeida or McNulty. Van Aert has recovered some of his form, as has Vingegaard, who never really lost it. Laporte looks better after his strange disappearance and poor performance. Hagenes step foward, Tullet. Kuss is still missing after the 2023 Vuelta.

As a team, Decathlon seems much stronger than Visma, also in the mountains. In UAE Tour, it was Decathlon that made the race harder, but Felix Gall wasn't well. In Catalunya, Felix Gall was the strongest rider behind Vignegaard, but his awful descending ruined everything.
Lund has replaced Kooij, and he has turned into a top sprinter. Even Prudhomme has gone from mediocre rider to a good domestique and win some races at 28. Before, he didn't even win French cup races.

By the way, where is Kooij? Is he the only one who's been negatively affected by Decathlon's energy? He's disappeared like Laporte last year, but it's very strange after a team change. Kooij's absence from a team considered medium-level would have been a disaster, but miraculously Lund is suddenly a world-class sprinter.

BORA's collective performance is also generally good. Van Dijk and Pithie at least look like professionals again after their disastrous 2025. BORA's problem is that none of their leaders climb better than the three best. In almost of the important races this year,the team with the most representation has been BORA, but except for Remco, none of its leaders have shown superiority on any day.

With this trend, We could have a Tour where Pogacar and Vingegaard are the strongest without strong teams, and Decathlon and BORA have the strongest teams but don't know what to do. Although, if Seixas continues this monthly improvement...