State of the Peloton 2026

[Krzysztof_O]

I think it's still pretty big.

But you're always at the least dealing with fatigue from previous stages, less than ideal weather, and in the case of the TdF and Vuelta, a lot of heat most of the times.

Also altitude, especially for long climbs matters a lot more compared to lab tests, and I thin the fatigue even in easy unipuerto stages plays a considerable role.

It makes sense. Higher altitude (than in a lab) is probably the most important followed by general cumulative fatigue (from conditions, previous stages, previous kms etc) and unoptimal pacing. We never see those sci-fi values in races, not even close. In fact the closest was PdB (which was actually a hard stage after another hard stage), that's why I said that for top dogs the difference is small (fresh/non-fresh) but the pacing was perfect then.

 

[Red Rick]

It makes sense. Higher altitude (than in a lab) is probably the most important followed by general cumulative fatigue (from conditions, previous stages, previous kms etc) and unoptimal pacing. We never see those sci-fi values in races, not even close. In fact the closest was PdB (which was actually a hard stage after another hard stage), that's why I said that for top dogs the difference is small (fresh/non-fresh) but the pacing was perfect then.

For top dogs it's obviously gonna be smaller, but with PdB in particular I think there's a combination of the gentle 25km before the base really helping recovery for the best, a very noticable tailwind ignored by nearly all calculations I've seen and Pogacar's lab values being unknown so we probably also underrate how crazy those are.

One thing we may actually infer quite a bit from is the watts we get from hour record attempts, because at least you'd often have a flat out 60 minute effort at sea level, and then you have the caveats of a compromised position (for watts), a flat surface (less watts for most riders) and a nonclimber.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

For top dogs it's obviously gonna be smaller, but with PdB in particular I think there's a combination of the gentle 25km before the base really helping recovery for the best, a very noticable tailwind ignored by nearly all calculations I've seen and Pogacar's lab values being unknown so we probably also underrate how crazy those are.

One thing we may actually infer quite a bit from is the watts we get from hour record attempts, because at least you'd often have a flat out 60 minute effort at sea level, and then you have the caveats of a compromised position (for watts), a flat surface (less watts for most riders) and a nonclimber.

I would have to take a look at hour record watts.

This would probably mean that they can likely utilize around 90% of VO2max in lab for an hour. Also it's likely that shorter efforts i.e. 10-15 minutes in race conditions should be closer to lab numbers (relatively) than longer efforts due to less altitude influence and a higher chance of strong pacing for the whole climb.

 

[Red Rick]

I would have to take a look at hour record watts.

This would probably mean that they can likely utilize around 90% of VO2max in lab for an hour. Also it's likely that shorter efforts i.e. 10-15 minutes in race conditions should be closer to lab numbers (relatively) than longer efforts due to less altitude influence and a higher chance of strong pacing for the whole climb.

Apparently Ganna said he did 480 for an hour, which would be 5.5-5.8W/kg depending on his precize weight most likely. Now in an hour record they push the temp a bit high so riders overheat too.

 

[Peyresourde]

Pogacar probably has not done a lab effort in years and neither have many of the other top riders. So they don't even know themselves what they could push in perfect conditions. Pure MTTs are also very rare.

If you project Peyragudes to sea level, he might have been able to push 7.6 -7.7 eW/kg for 20+ minutes. If these are not sci-fi watts, I don't know what you expect. He might have also pushed pretty insane watts on his Coll de Rates record (after 50k of riding), but his draft% is unknown.