Itzulia Basque Country 2026, April 6-11

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Final climb today, 10k from the finish:

Everything else comes with 40k+ to go, and quite a long valley in between.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah this stage just isn't it great

 

[Rob5091]

14C and rain showers all day so young Seixas will have to have his wits about him. With over 2 minutes lead he can afford to be careful.
(Would be interesting to know the TV viewers number in France compared to last year. )

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Well for the last five yrs his results in Itzulia, good or bad, have not meant any remarkable success in the Tour whatsoever..

yep, Ion will likely be irrelevant in the tour, instead he should go all in at San Sebastian Klasikoa and target a relevant stage at the Vuelta for the ultimate farewell to procycling.

 

[Rob5091]

yep, Ion will likely be irrelevant in the tour, instead he should go all in at San Sebastian Klasikoa and target a relevant stage at the Vuelta for the ultimate farewell to procycling.

For a 37 year old it's not a bad current performance, but it also shows the state of the opposition. Yep, feet up in July and an end of season blitz on the Vuelta etc.

 

[memyselfandI]

And stage win in every gt and many more so chapeau!

 

[canina82]

No I didn't.

I'm mostly talking about arguments he's already good enough to challenge for the top 2. And all the W/kg people that will ignore a tailwind and perfect pacing certainly didn't help.

Right now I think he makes a clear case for 3rd best in certain stages, but I do think the caveat if he can do it in GTs applies a bit more to him than for other riders because this is the 2nd stage race in a row where he looks stronger early in the race than later in the race.

No RR. I don't think you are right in one thing. Certainly, there is a chance he was helped by a strong tailwind and a perfect leadout, however there is the time gap to other rivals and what he did in Pais Vasco (both stages 1 and 2) and Faun Ardenne Classic is something we never saw anyone doing, except Vingegaard, Pogacar and Remco. Since I believe Remco is cooked as a GT rider (I don't think he is stronger than Lipo these days), he is definitely the favorite to be third in July. We also need to look Vingegaard's performances in the Vuelta and I don't think he will be stronger in the TdF like Pogacar in 2024. So there are 3 reason that give Seixas a chance of getting a 2nd place (even if it's a small chance):

1 - Vingegaard doing the Giro before
2 - Seixas is improving and rising like a rocket
3 - he has been dominating races like Vingegaard (I'm sure he will do it again in the Dauphiné)

Is he very young? Yes. He lacks experience? Yes. Has he been weaker later in the race compared to eaely stages? Yes, however we should not forget he still has the race controlled, Lipo wasn't close to drop him (the same in Algarve with Ayuso. The typical "early peaker").
There is also the agressive way he has been racing in Pais Vasco. His performance dropprd just like Pogacar was almost dropped in Montjuic 2 years ago after doing the most dominant performance in a one week stage race.

Every thing points to a fantastic stage racer (in GTs too).

 

[jonan92]

Weather has changed, 14º and small rain already

 

[Samu Cuenca]

14C and rain showers all day so young Seixas will have to have his wits about him. With over 2 minutes lead he can afford to be careful.
(Would be interesting to know the TV viewers number in France compared to last year. )

As long as he has his watts he should be ok.

 

[Red Rick]

No RR. I don't think you are right in one thing. Certainly, there is a chance he was helped by a strong tailwind and a perfect leadout, however there is the time gap to other rivals and what he did in Pais Vasco (both stages 1 and 2) and Faun Ardenne Classic is something we never saw anyone doing, except Vingegaard, Pogacar and Remco. Since I believe Remco is cooked as a GT rider (I don't think he is stronger than Lipo these days), he is definitely the favorite to be third in July. We also need to look Vingegaard's performances in the Vuelta and I don't think he will be stronger in the TdF like Pogacar in 2024. So there are 3 reason that give Seixas a chance of getting a 2nd place (even if it's a small chance):

1 - Vingegaard doing the Giro before
2 - Seixas is improving and rising like a rocket
3 - he has been dominating races like Vingegaard (I'm sure he will do it again in the Dauphiné)

Is he very young? Yes. He lacks experience? Yes. Has he been weaker later in the race compared to eaely stages? Yes, however we should not forget he still has the race controlled, Lipo wasn't close to drop him (the same in Algarve with Ayuso. The typical "early peaker").
There is also the agressive way he has been racing in Pais Vasco. His performance dropprd just like Pogacar was almost dropped in Montjuic 2 years ago after doing the most dominant performance in a one week stage race.

Every thing points to a fantastic stage racer (in GTs too).

Gaps are extremely specific to route and race situation, and the TT gap will be significantly inflated due to his descending ability, which doesn't translate to flatter TTs.

The cleanest metric is probably taking ~55s on Aralar over a chase with 0 cooperation, and that's not that dissimilar to performance like Almeida taking around 50s on Splugenpas in the Tour de Suisse last season. Once G2 dynamics start happening, we can start ignoring the gaps, unless we have conclude that Simon Yates did the single best performance of the decade last season.

Overall, I'm also not that huge on extrapolating improvement and decline before it actually happens. The time between now and the Tour isn't that long, and normally you'd expect the biggest jump over the off season, especially for a rider like Seixas who is targeting these spring races and won't have the TdF or bust mentality.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

50 meters from the finish!

By then Lipowitz will have already attacked Roglic.

 

[HashRouge]

Gaps are extremely specific to route and race situation, and the TT gap will be significantly inflated due to his descending ability, which doesn't translate to flatter TTs.

The cleanest metric is probably taking ~55s on Aralar over a chase with 0 cooperation, and that's not that dissimilar to performance like Almeida taking around 50s on Splugenpas in the Tour de Suisse last season. Once G2 dynamics start happening, we can start ignoring the gaps, unless we have conclude that Simon Yates did the single best performance of the decade last season.

Overall, I'm also not that huge on extrapolating improvement and decline before it actually happens. The time between now and the Tour isn't that long, and normally you'd expect the biggest jump over the off season, especially for a rider like Seixas who is targeting these spring races and won't have the TdF or bust mentality.

I agree with this. I think Seixas is a phenomenal talent but we don't have any data as to how he will perform across three weeks, and I'm not sure I agree with some posters' assumption that he will make another big leap between now and the Tour. I think what we're seeing is likely to be roughly the current peak of what he is capable of. The big question mark is how he will sustain his form across the three weeks of a grand tour, and for this reason I'm not entirely confident that he is (currently) capable of finishing ahead of riders like Lipo or Remco, assuming they both come into the Tour in good shape. Of course, he may be, but I'm happy just to wait and see.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

I wonder if Bahrain will join the breakaway today or if they'll go back to being Seixas's domestique team.

Yesterday,the breakaway would have won without Bahrain´s work. A third day without joining the breakaway and pulling from the peloton would be ridiculous.

 

[Peyresourde]

Gaps are extremely specific to route and race situation, and the TT gap will be significantly inflated due to his descending ability, which doesn't translate to flatter TTs.

The cleanest metric is probably taking ~55s on Aralar over a chase with 0 cooperation, and that's not that dissimilar to performance like Almeida taking around 50s on Splugenpas in the Tour de Suisse last season. Once G2 dynamics start happening, we can start ignoring the gaps, unless we have conclude that Simon Yates did the single best performance of the decade last season.

Overall, I'm also not that huge on extrapolating improvement and decline before it actually happens. The time between now and the Tour isn't that long, and normally you'd expect the biggest jump over the off season, especially for a rider like Seixas who is targeting these spring races and won't have the TdF or bust mentality.

Splugenpass was a 83 Index for me, while Aralar was 86. So your comparison is not bad. But Almeida was really strong last year and climbing performances in the summer are generally a bit higher than in spring, so I don't see how that diminishes Seixas' level.

Tailwind is already considered in most calculations (maybe not watts2win).

In general, I do not rate day-to-day recovery as that important (Every talented GC rider is good enough at that). If Seixas was not at least decent at that, he could not climb at this level since he would not be able to train hard enough. Guys like Derek Gee or Jorgenson after good prep can perfectly do it, so I don't see why it should be a big problem for Seixas.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah this stage just isn't it great

limited how much better you can make the bundle of the last two stages . if you remove the last climb and add karakate to the circuit , the last stage will be better but prob also block yesterday

edit : id prefer karakate on the first lap and not on the second if you remove the last little loop

 

[Red Rick]

limited how much better you can make the bundle of the last two stages . if you remove the last climb and add karakate to the circuit , the last stage will be better but prob also block yesterday

edit : id prefer karakate on the first lap and not on the second if you remove the last little loop

I don't know how much it blocks yesterday. Lipowitz was attacking on Vivero on stage 4 for example.

 

[search]

Skjelmose and Tullett drop out of the top 10.

According to the team, Tulett was feeling the after effects from his crash on stage 3, and indicated early on that he wouldn't be able to compete.

About Skjelmose, there don't seem to be any official statements, but according to Verona's blog, he lost 20s on Krabelin and was unable to catch back on on the descent.

 

[Netserk]

I don't know how much it blocks yesterday. Lipowitz was attacking on Vivero on stage 4 for example.

perhaps not for this edition , but in expectation when the route is drawn id have that concern

 

[canina82]

This is a stage for the break or a late attack from an underdog. I'm pretty sure Seixas will not ride to win this stage.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Ayuso injured for the tt
Lipowitz and Roglic riding like terrorists in stage 2
Dropped by Ion izagirre stage 4
Romo crashed stage 5

Paul Seixas WT wins so far;

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039771934368370767

Makes you think.

 

[Red Rick]

perhaps not for this edition , but in expectation when the route is drawn id have that concern

I'm not that sure.

I don't love the Eibar stage in it's current form, because I think Krabelin is too far away and Izua is a tiny bit too soft for what it's trying to do. I wouldn't mind double Krabelin or swapping them around. Though maybe a basically guaranteed 30k shootout with less variance defeats the main goal of the stage design for you, and you can take do a stage 5 like in 2025 to scratch that itch.

 

[Netserk]

I'm not that sure.

I don't love the Eibar stage in it's current form, because I think Krabelin is too far away and Izua is a tiny bit too soft for what it's trying to do. I wouldn't mind double Krabelin or swapping them around. Though maybe a basically guaranteed 30k shootout with less variance defeats the main goal of the stage design for you, and you can take do a stage 5 like in 2025 to scratch that itch.

id switch the two loops in the end for starters

 

[TheKidsCallMeBoss]

I wonder if Bahrain will join the breakaway today or if they'll go back to being Seixas's domestique team.

Yesterday,the breakaway would have won without Bahrain´s work. A third day without joining the breakaway and pulling from the peloton would be ridiculous.

Bilbao isn't allowed to join the break, he's the only rider on his team with any chance of winning. They have no choice but to control the break, and Seixas will win.

 

[Taxus4a]

Today could be rain from 15:00 h, but It is likely before. Yesterday, forecast was heavy rain all stage, and that would have been for sure the most selective stage with 2 climbs to Gorla, mythical climb.
Bora is riding with no strayegy, so Seixas shouldnt have problems. By anyway today with rain everything can happend. We have as well ( as a Big part of Europe) sahariano dust and It is really dangerous to compete like that for chest health. Movistar is strong this race and I hope an agressive race from them to be on the podium or get the stage

 

[Taxus4a]

It is raining from the begining, so It is going to be a really hard stage.