João Almeida - Bota Lume

[Peyroteo94]

Are Portuguese especially nationalistic? I have no idea, but only Portuguese people talk about how he needs Portuguese people in his team. I can see that as an argument if one is bad at language but otherwise it just doesn't make sense as an argument for me. Granted he seems to be somewhat bad at English so...

Almeida is happy in UAE right now but like @carolina (I no longer see you in our portuguese forum) mentioned, I believe Ineos would be a good team for him or even Redbull.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Isn't Almeida finally winning races and getting leadership positions? For Ayuso and up to a point i do understand the dilemma, but why Almeida needs to leave UAE ASAP? It's an upgrade team from QOS and rider improving. Tour leadership?

 

[carolina]

Two main reasons:
1) leadership in the races he wants, instead of the races Pogacar doesn't care about;
2) a team that actually works for him

 

[greyclouds]

Isn't Almeida finally winning races and getting leadership positions? For Ayuso and up to a point i do understand the dilemma, but why Almeida needs to leave UAE ASAP? It's an upgrade team from QOS and rider improving. Tour leadership?

I don't think that he needs to leave ASAP, but with his contract up at the end of next season it's reasonable for him to check his options. He will be 28 yo and with 2 maybe up to 4 'guaranteed' top seasons he should consider carefully what could be his 'last' big career move.

Would he want to stay at UAE from 2027 onwards only as Pogis TdF super-dom + leader in 1 or 2 week-stage races, if IdT and Ayuso have each captaincy at the Giro and Vuelta? Or would he prefer to be the lead on another project with a decent budget?

It's not about him having a shot at winning the TdF but, as Carolina said, about having the freedom to make his own schedule and a team that works for him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The problem for Almeida is what will happen next year IMHO:
- Pogacar will lead the Tour
- Del Toro will lead the Giro
- Ayuso will lead the Vuelta
Almeida will probably have co-leadership in the Giro and Vuelta.
For me, I think it would be better for him if Pogacar raced the Vuelta this year. Almeida, next year can win a GT but not this year since Vingegaard will race the Vuelta.

 

[Netserk]

Vingegaard will likely double up every year without major injury.

I can see Almeida do Giro-Tour next year.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingegaard will likely double up every year without major injury.

I can see Almeida do Giro-Tour next year.

I also think Vingegaard will do Giro-Tour next year if he loses the Tour.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think he'll ever do the Giro.

 

[AupaPyama]

UAE must pay him well, but there also must be a lot of money available with other teams to get a GC leader; a possible GT podium candidate or even winner.

My top 3 would be:
Israel: needs a second GC leader. Froome/Fuglsang budget is available.
Movistar: rumours about a second sponsor; want a second GC leader next to Mas; already have Portuguese riders.
XDS-Astana: Almeida can be number 1 leader of the team.
and of course back to Soudal-Quickstep: if Evenepoel leaves for Ineos-Total rumours are true (I know the team denied it ofc).

 

[SHAD0W93]

Only teams I can see Almeida going to is Astana or Bahrain. The good news with Astana is Vino can turn the defensive yoyo into an attacking one.

 

[KZD]

Unless Pogačar rides the Giro next year, which I am not expecting to, I hope that Almeida returns there.

He has unfinished business with that race and I think its the best chance that UAE has to win a Grand Tour without Pogačar as the level is often lower than in the Vuelta and the route usually suits him.

 

[P4rthen0n]

I'm still not sure Almeida can win a GT.

We're seeing with Ayuso that a GT is not the same as a one-week race.

Jay Vine finished third in Romandie, and in the Giro he was never at the level of the best before retiring.
Fortunato finished fourth and out of GC.

There are many examples, Ayuso seems to be one. He's very good at races like Tirreno Adriatico, but he always struggles to fight for a GT win.

The same thing happened to Valverde. He won the Vuelta because it's the easiest to win, but he couldn't handle the Giro and Tour.

Simon Yates was worse than Pidcock at Tirreno Adriaco mountain and had a climb to Finestre that Ayuso has never been able to do in high mountains.

This is the UAE. Almeida will easily win Switzerland against no one. Jorgenson will go to Dauphinhe as a domestique, because the important thing is that Visma won Giro d'Italia. They don't care about Switzerland, they don't take anyone with options.

Winning a GT is incredibly hard. Not many can do it.
You got to be in top form, you have to be lucky not to fall (too much or too hard), you must have a decent/good team, you must be lucky and you must no get sick. Maybe you even need to have the top favourites all drop out so you can win.
My point is that winning a GT is super hard for non mutants.

Having said all that, Almeida is super consistent in GTs.
He has participated in 8 GTs, finished 6 of them, always in the top 10 (1 podium).
This has been his best year so far. He needs to finish the Tour in the top10 (top5 would be great again) and maybe he has a shot at winning the Vuelta.
Lets see.


Btw if Almeida ends up in another team soon (to become the leader of the team), I see Lidl-Trek as a good fit, maybe Ineos or Bahrain as well.

 

[noob]

I believe he would've won if he had gone to this giro. He's been in crazy good form this spring.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think he'll ever do the Giro.

You think he's that Tour focused?

 

[greyclouds]

I'm still not sure Almeida can win a GT.

We're seeing with Ayuso that a GT is not the same as a one-week race.

Jay Vine finished third in Romandie, and in the Giro he was never at the level of the best before retiring.
Fortunato finished fourth and out of GC.

There are many examples, Ayuso seems to be one. He's very good at races like Tirreno Adriatico, but he always struggles to fight for a GT win.

The same thing happened to Valverde. He won the Vuelta because it's the easiest to win, but he couldn't handle the Giro and Tour.

Simon Yates was worse than Pidcock at Tirreno Adriaco mountain and had a climb to Finestre that Ayuso has never been able to do in high mountains.

This is the UAE. Almeida will easily win Switzerland against no one. Jorgenson will go to Dauphinhe as a domestique, because the important thing is that Visma won Giro d'Italia. They don't care about Switzerland, they don't take anyone with options.

I don’t know if Almeida will ever win a GT, but you can’t be serious if you are comparing him and Yates as GT riders to Fortunato, Pidcock and Vine. One (Yates) we thought was past his GT prime rider days but still have one more nuke in him, but has always been a serious GT rider; the other (Almeida) has been a serial consistent GT rider since he was 20-yo. In 8 GTs he finished 6, with 5 of those being top-5 (I count his Giro 21 as top 5 as same time as DFM).

 

[greyclouds]

I believe he would've won if he had gone to this giro. He's been in crazy good form this spring.

I don’t if would have been able to keep up with what Yates did in the Finestre. It gives Stelvio ‘20 vibes.

 

[noob]

I don’t if would have been able to keep up with what Yates did in the Finestre. It gives Stelvio ‘20 vibes.

He's very different from 2020. Stelvio was also much colder. The other times he's done long climbs he's been good least sick.

So I don't think Stelvio 5 years ago is the best comparison even if the attrition probably is as close as it gets.

 

[greyclouds]

He's very different from 2020. Stelvio was also much colder. The other times he's done long climbs he's been good least sick.

So I don't think Stelvio 5 years ago is the best comparison even if the attrition probably is as close as it gets.

You’re right, it’s more the mental breakdown 🥹

 

[Netserk]

You think he's that Tour focused?

Yes. And with his level and qualities, it makes good sense.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes. And with his level and qualities, it makes good sense.

I think Vingegaard and Pogacar can sleepwalk the Giro in May and still do their all time best TdF, so I don't see why the Giro can't work.

 

[will-10]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1930185440172167503

View: https://x.com/faustocoppi60/status/1930185440172167503?t=GqCAKfFHmQpCDoSRCMG4hw&s=19

 

[Cycling111]

He´d win Switzerland with worse numbers.

There's no significant rival.

 

[P4rthen0n]

He´d win Switzerland with worse numbers.

There's no significant rival.

Vlasov
Ben O'Connor
Tao Geoghegan
Pidcock
Geraint Thomas
Ben Healy
Jay Vine
Felix Gall

It's not a bad field for a 1 week race. Not super strong either.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Vlasov
Ben O'Connor
Tao Geoghegan
Pidcock
Geraint Thomas
Ben Healy
Jay Vine
Felix Gall

It's not a bad field for a 1 week race. Not super strong either.

Gall is riding the Dauphine, but Fortunato will race it for the gc, the uphill finish heavy route + mtt helps him.

 

[Cycling111]

Vlasov
Ben O'Connor
Tao Geoghegan
Pidcock
Geraint Thomas
Ben Healy
Jay Vine
Felix Gall

It's not a bad field for a 1 week race. Not super strong either.

Vlasov is having a pretty bad year and he's not winning much.

O'Connor has had a bad year since changing team.
But he's not such a great climber; he finished second in the Vuelta for his stage victory advantage, but he was losing time in the mountains.

These two would be the best rivals

TAO has had a horrible performance since his accident

Pidcock: Have you seen his Giro? I'm surprised he's going to Switzerland. He's totally exhausted.

G. Thomas. In recent years, he is in shape for one GT.

Healy. Not rival for a GT.

Vine: teammate.
By the way, why did Vine withdraw from the Giro? To be in shape for Switzerland?

Felix Gall. A great climber, but inconsistent for the GC victory.

For me, the first two, with the doubts I've raised, and Felix Gall, are rivals.
They're not up to the level againts someone who finished fourth in the TDF.

Carlos Rodriguez, who isn´t one of the strongest riders in Dauphiné, would be a bigger rival than all of these.