João Almeida - Bota Lume

[Cycling111]

Pogacar isn't the issue, the other wannabe-leaders at the team are. I'm sure he would've done the Giro if Ayuso wasn't there.

If Ayuso hadn't gone to the Giro, it would have been said that Ayuso would´ve won this Giro

Almeida has several health problems in GT, especially when it rains.

I see him as a very similar cyclist to Ayuso. In three weeks, when they're leading, they've often had several problems.

Don't fool yourself. Pogacar is improving significantly year after year. So he didn't even enter in his plateau of improvement. Pogacar will be the top dog until 2032 at least.

Furthermore, Pogacar is the same age as Almeida, and they debuted the same year.

 

[noob]

Don't fool yourself. Pogacar is improving significantly year after year. So he didn't even enter in his plateau of improvement. Pogacar will be the top dog until 2032 at least.

With such claims see you in another part of the forum

 

[AmRacer]

I've expanded my message. A different schedule than Pogacar's and other TDF leaders'.

Pogacar's schedule this year included the Dauphiné. Pogacar always competes against the best, except for the UAE Tour out of commitment.
If Almeida had done Pogacar's schedule, he probably wouldn't have won anything at Dauphiné. One GC and 3 stage wins less.

In GT, I don't think there's a difference. As of today, Almeida is far from being able to compete with Pogacar and Vingegaard. In the Vuelta, even if Pogacar doesn't go to, he'll have Vingegaard.

His solution would´ve been to try the Giro this year, but that no longer depended on Pogacar. And if Almeida signs for another team, they'll want him to be a leader in the Tour, like Bora and Roglic, who won't be going to the Vuelta because BORA pays him 5 million to go to the Tour.
If Almeida leaves UAE, his main objective will be to go to the Tour. And probably the Dauphiné.
He won't win any of those against Pogacar and Vingegaard. His best result could be third, the same aspiration as in the UAE, except that in UAE he can race in Switzerland instead of going to the Dauphiné and not win.

Romandy isn't usually a target for the best either. Pogacar and Vingegaard haven't even made their debut there.
Almeida benefits from this situation, being able to choose races with less level.
If he's to lead Ineos, for example, they'll demand a more demanding and harder-to-win calendar.

A maximum calendar means less wins.

Last year, Pog didn't had any competition in the stage races before the Tour.

 

[noob]

If Ayuso hadn't gone to the Giro, it would have been said that Ayuso would´ve won this Giro

Almeida has several health problems in GT, especially when it rains.

I see him as a very similar cyclist to Ayuso. In three weeks, when they're leading, they've often had several problems.

They are definitely on a similar level yes

 

[Cycling111]

They are definitely on a similar level yes

I think Almeida would´ve a worse Tour as leader than with Pogacar, who is the one who has the responsibility to win.

Landa is very similar in GT. Landa's best GTs have been as a domestique, when everyone's eyes were on another leader.

A Tour that Froome won and Landa finished fourth, and last year he finished fifth with all eyes on Remco.

 

[carolina]

If Ayuso hadn't gone to the Giro, it would have been said that Ayuso would´ve won this Giro

Almeida has several health problems in GT, especially when it rains.

I see him as a very similar cyclist to Ayuso. In three weeks, when they're leading, they've often had several problems.

I disagree with the Ayuso comparison.
Ayuso DNF'd 2 out of 4 GTs. Didn't complete a GT last year and it seems he won't complete one this year. (Not looking great for him tbh).
Almeida DNF'd 2 out of 8. He completed a GT every year, even with the DNFs.

Even with a bad day, his worst is a 9th and it was the second GT he did that year. Almeida is way better.

 

[Cycling111]

I disagree with the Ayuso comparison.
Ayuso DNF'd 2 out of 4 GTs. Didn't complete a GT last year and it seems he won't complete one this year. (Not looking great for him tbh).
Almeida DNF'd 2 out of 8. He completed a GT every year, even with the DNFs.

Even with a bad day, his worst is a 9th and it was the second GT he did that year. Almeida is way better.

I'm not exactly an Ayuso fan, but honestly, that comparison is unfair to Ayuso.

Almeida is older and they've allowed him to do two GTs in a year; Ayuso has never had the opportunity to do two GTs yet.
From there, another conclusion can be drawn: that Almeida, despite having had more opportunities, hasn't been able to win a GT or finish second.

If Ayuso hadn't gone to the Giro, and seeing that Del Toro finished second, it would have been said that Ayuso would have won because Del Toro was Ayuso's domestique at Tirreno Adriatico.
I don't see any reason to think Almeida would have won this Giro. Winning three one-week races? Simon hasn't won any stage this year and won the Giro. Sean Kelly won multiple one-week races and couldn't win a Giro.
I see Ayuso and Almeida at a similar level in GT, so I can't conclude that he would´ve won the Giro, because so far neither of them has proven to be more capable than the other of doing so.

In any case, his ceiling as a GC leader seems to be similar.
Almeida, despite having done more GTs, hasn't won any either.

When it comes to talking about how he would fare outside the UAE, I don't see any difference. As the leader of another team, he wouldn't aspire to anything more than what he'll achieve this year in the Tour and Vuelta behind Pogacar and Vingegaard.
And he himself said he didn't want to return to the Giro after so many years.

 

[noob]

Gotta add one thing though; if Pog demands him as a domestique 2 GT a year it will DEFINITELY affect whether he can win a GT or not. He ain't Kuss!

 

[noob]

Well at least he should be in position to ask for giro leadership 2026 or 27 or threaten to leave. It's not like UAE can afford to lose him more than he can afford to lose UAE.

 

[Cycling111]

Well at least he should be in position to ask for giro leadership 2026 or 27 or threaten to leave. It's not like UAE can afford to lose him more than he can afford to lose UAE.

The year Almeida did the Giro-Vuelta, 2023, Pogacar didn't participate in any of them .
He doesn't do two GTs due to Pogacar's demands.

 

[noob]

The year Almeida did the Giro-Vuelta, 2023, Pogacar didn't participate in any of them . He doesn´t participate in two GT at Pogacar's request.

You seriously want me to believe he'll rather do 2 GT as a domestique than 1 GT with leadership?!

Maybe if he's lost all ambitions. Or maybe, just maybe he didn't do giro because Pog needed him for tdf and Ayuso wouldn't be a good domestique.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations on winning Tour de Suisse.

P.S. Likely no going back now, for João. Either leadership positions at UAE, or elsewhere.

 

[greyclouds]

I'm not exactly an Ayuso fan, but honestly, that comparison is unfair to Ayuso.

Almeida is older and they've allowed him to do two GTs in a year; Ayuso has never had the opportunity to do two GTs yet.
From there, another conclusion can be drawn: that Almeida, despite having had more opportunities, hasn't been able to win a GT or finish second.

If Ayuso hadn't gone to the Giro, and seeing that Del Toro finished second, it would have been said that Ayuso would have won because Del Toro was Ayuso's domestique at Tirreno Adriatico.
I don't see any reason to think Almeida would have won this Giro. Winning three one-week races? Simon hasn't won any stage this year and won the Giro. Sean Kelly won multiple one-week races and couldn't win a Giro.
I see Ayuso and Almeida at a similar level in GT, so I can't conclude that he would´ve won the Giro, because so far neither of them has proven to be more capable than the other of doing so.

In any case, his ceiling as a GC leader seems to be similar.
Almeida, despite having done more GTs, hasn't won any either.

When it comes to talking about how he would fare outside the UAE, I don't see any difference. As the leader of another team, he wouldn't aspire to anything more than what he'll achieve this year in the Tour and Vuelta behind Pogacar and Vingegaard.
And he himself said he didn't want to return to the Giro after so many years.

Why not? Without fallbacks he would have finished above Del Toro and Carapaz and he wouldn’t hav made the mistake that Del Toro did in Finestre.

Until 2024 Almeida was a very regular GT and 1-week racer, but the best he had was a 3rd place at the Giro, a few 3rd places in 1-week stage races and a 2nd podium at T-A. He since clearly stepped up - that’s undeniable. His ceiling is possible the same but his floor got much higher. He has performed consistently at a higher level this two seasons, even if a few steps below Vingegaard and top Remco (no, I don’t think that he will challenge Vingo at the Tour). He got tactically better and showed us things that we would not think he had in him - such as this weeks 50km solo.

To the initial point, yes I think that he could have won this years Giro, 100%.

 

[solo80k]

Gotta add one thing though; if Pog demands him as a domestique 2 GT a year it will DEFINITELY affect whether he can win a GT or not. He ain't Kuss!

And Pogacar ain't Jonas... 90+ % of pros have never had so successful season as Almeida is experiencing this year.

I'm sure Pogacar is able to gift some races to his loyal lieutenants.

 

[ice&fire]

Gotta add one thing though; if Pog demands him as a domestique 2 GT a year it will DEFINITELY affect whether he can win a GT or not. He ain't Kuss!

He's more akin to Richie Porte

 

[greyclouds]

He's more akin to Richie Porte

Lol

 

[yaco]

No team pays more money than UAE.

And what I mean is, he´d be the leader all year, but he´d win much less than this year because he´s won this year in part by doing a completely different schedule to Pogacar and other Tour leaders except Paris-Nice.

You seem to forget that riders of Almeida's ilk want to prove themselves in a GT as a bona fide leader. Of course there is a possibility he could win less, after all, how many riders win three WT one week stages in a year. The riding against Pogi is a furphy, when you consider how few one week stage races he actually rides. The reality is that if Pog rides the Vuelta, then Almeida will merely be a helper in two GT's this year. If a team thinks Almeida can win a GT, then they will offer Almeida a very attractive contract.

 

[AmRacer]

You seem to forget that riders of Almeida's ilk want to prove themselves in a GT as a bona fide leader. Of course there is a possibility he could win less, after all, how many riders win three WT one week stages in a year. The riding against Pogi is a furphy, when you consider how few one week stage races he actually rides. The reality is that if Pog rides the Vuelta, then Almeida will merely be a helper in two GT's this year. If a team thinks Almeida can win a GT, then they will offer Almeida a very attractive contract.

Two riders have done it, winning 3 of ithe 7 one-week stage races.

 

[Cycling111]

You seem to forget that riders of Almeida's ilk want to prove themselves in a GT as a bona fide leader. Of course there is a possibility he could win less, after all, how many riders win three WT one week stages in a year. The riding against Pogi is a furphy, when you consider how few one week stage races he actually rides. The reality is that if Pog rides the Vuelta, then Almeida will merely be a helper in two GT's this year. If a team thinks Almeida can win a GT, then they will offer Almeida a very attractive contract.

His result in the Vuelta or the Tour would be no different as a leader for other team. Last year, he wouldn't have achieved better than a fourth place in the Tour as a leader for another team.

One-week races have never been a primary objective for GT contenders.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

The riding against Pogi is a furphy,

???

 

[iBanesto]

I disagree with the Ayuso comparison.
Ayuso DNF'd 2 out of 4 GTs. Didn't complete a GT last year and it seems he won't complete one this year. (Not looking great for him tbh).
Almeida DNF'd 2 out of 8. He completed a GT every year, even with the DNFs.

Even with a bad day, his worst is a 9th and it was the second GT he did that year. Almeida is way better.

Almeida's 2 DNFs in grand tours were due to contracting COVID as well.

• 2022 Giro - he was in 4th place after 16 stages
• 2024 Vuelta - he was in 3rd place after 7 stages

 

[yaco]

???

This is referring to one week stage races.

 

[yaco]

His result in the Vuelta or the Tour would be no different as a leader for other team. Last year, he wouldn't have achieved better than a fourth place in the Tour as a leader for another team.

One-week races have never been a primary objective for GT contenders.

We don't know if his performance would be different. But if he is ambitious he will want the opportunity.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

This is referring to one week stage races.

I mean: What is a furphy? I have been a native speaker of English for more than 60 years and have never seen the word in my life: I'm sure many of our second language contributors are even more baffled by it.

 

[Red Rick]

Gotta add one thing though; if Pog demands him as a domestique 2 GT a year it will DEFINITELY affect whether he can win a GT or not. He ain't Kuss!

0 chance Pogacar can contractually demand that.