Jonas Vingegaard: Something is Rotten

[Cookster15]

If we can only go on that, all other things being equal (doping+/-tech advancements), then Pantani is king.

Yes. In cycling there are accepted norms. And there is also recency bias. Both are strongly evident in this forum. I wanted to post those times to provide an objective comparison to the assumed truth that today's climbing speeds are fastest. Lately I have also read here reference to "unipuerto stages". Well, the 2004 TdF Alpe stage was a time trial and Armstrong apart that day's times were still a long way short of those of the 90s free for all era.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Who is that quote from? Interested to know why anti-doping pressures are "easing up"?

It’s a hyperbole quote that sums up what a poster keeps bringing up.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Always hard to compare climbs on different days due to weather, the course and race dynamics. But the Alpe is always a good benchmark IMO. When I read the top riders climbing Alpe D'Huez in the TdF in 38 minutes or less they are getting close - but there is also technological advancements. Even on an 8% climb at 22km/h there is a significant aero benefit from new equipment compared to the 90s. Vingo and Pogi took 39 minutes in 2022.

With a more offensive mindset and no Granon epic the day before they could reach 38 minutes IMO. Still a long way to go to reach Pantani.

 

[Red Rick]

People still be understimating the massive moto drafting advantage they had in the 90s. Now only Pogacar gets that

 

[Extinction]

Yes. In cycling there are accepted norms. And there is also recency bias. Both are strongly evident in this forum. I wanted to post those times to provide an objective comparison to the assumed truth that today's climbing speeds are fastest. Lately I have also read here reference to "unipuerto stages". Well, the 2004 TdF Alpe stage was a time trial and Armstrong apart that day's times were still a long way short of those of the 90s free for all era.

It's important to consider, were Pantani riding today, with the sport's performance and tech advancements (including what might certainly be doping ways), where would he be with 1994-1999 form, despite his horrific injuries then? However you look at it, the guy was a mountain GOAT.

 

[Cookster15]

It's important to consider, were Pantani riding today, with the sport's performance and tech advancements (including what might certainly be doping ways), where would he be with 1994-1999 form, despite his horrific injuries then? However you look at it, the guy was a mountain GOAT.

Agreed. I have never been of the "cycling is purely entertainment" view, probably because I have competed in the sport. But with Pantani I got the feeling back then everyone in the sport accepted his greatness despite the doping that went on. Definitely the GOAT (climber). But to your point imagine what Pantani + modern equipment and methods might have been capable of? Maybe someone has a watt saving calculator that could estimate.

 

[Cookster15]

People still be understimating the massive moto drafting advantage they had in the 90s. Now only Pogacar gets that

This is the first time I've seen this suggested? I don't recall Pantani getting a "massive" moto drafting advantage ? Just checked some video of the 1995 record, most of the time the moto was well ahead of him (below is a link).

And checking video of the 2022 stage there are motos in front of Pog and Vingo as well. Anyway, Pantani's performances against riders like Indurain and Ullrich and all the other doped climbers of that era should confirm his greatness. With modern equipment and training methods who knows what time he might have set on the Alpe!

1995 TdF Stage 10 ESPN

 

[Red Rick]

This is the first time I've seen this suggested? I don't recall Pantani getting a "massive" moto drafting advantage ? Just checked some video of the 1995 record, most of the time the moto was well ahead of him (below is a link).

And checking video of the 2022 stage there are motos in front of Pog and Vingo as well. Anyway, Pantani's performances against riders like Indurain and Ullrich and all the other doped climbers of that era should confirm his greatness. With modern equipment and training methods who knows what time he might have set on the Alpe!

1995 TdF Stage 10 ESPN

At 2:10 the jury car is right in front of him.

Alpe d'huez generally has a much bigger effect for this because the crowds are so thick the motors are much closer to the riders.

 

[snipeheem]

With a more offensive mindset and no Granon epic the day before they could reach 38 minutes IMO. Still a long way to go to reach Pantani.

From 2023 form maybe sub 38? They both were unreal at some stages, puy the dome, joux plane etc

 

[Cookster15]

At 2:10 the jury car is right in front of him.

Alpe d'huez generally has a much bigger effect for this because the crowds are so thick the motors are much closer to the riders.

Are you sure you are being objective? Check the 2022 video. There are also moments where the moto is well within drafting range of Pog/Vingegaard. Likewise in 1995, much of the climb the motos are well out of range of Pantani - crowds or not.

But I certainly disagree with your “massive” choice of wording to describe any perceived drafting benefit in the 90s. And due to aero advancements bikes are faster today - even at 22km/h. My word would be “inconclusive”.

Anyway, glad to get the conversation going 🙂

 

[Froome]

If Vingegaard does a TT to alpe d'huez like in the Tour 2004, he easily beat the record of Pantani.

It would be a FTP test.

 

[Netserk]

If Vingegaard does a TT to alpe d'huez like in the Tour 2004, he easily beat the record of Pantani.

It would be a FTP test.

No.

Just compare 2004 and 2001. Less than 30" faster as an ITT. And Vingegaard would have to be a minute faster than Armstrong.

 

[Red Rick]

Are you sure you are being objective? Check the 2022 video. There are also moments where the moto is well within drafting range of Pog/Vingegaard. Likewise in 1995, much of the climb the motos are well out of range of Pantani - crowds or not.

But I certainly disagree with your “massive” choice of wording to describe any perceived drafting benefit in the 90s. And due to aero advancements bikes are faster today - even at 22km/h. My word would be “inconclusive”.

Anyway, glad to get the conversation going 🙂

I really think motors had a bigger effect on races in the 90s. I've seen too many vids of riders attacking and then having like 6 motors or something insane right in front of them.

It may not have been consistently right in front of them, but they certainly were less diligent in keeping them at a distance. And I may like to overrate how big that effect was at the time. Basically I like to relate the motors being close to riders there to riders winning MTFs by bigger gaps in those days.

It may even be that Alpe d'Huez has the least difference between back then and now in that regard.

 

[Red Rick]

No.

Just compare 2004 and 2001. Less than 30" faster as an ITT. And Vingegaard would have to be a minute faster than Armstrong.

Think it depends on gradient, especially the first half, but AdH is prolly still faster as unipuerto than MTT

Kinda wanna see a 3day stage race now where they do the same MTF 3 times but once as MTT, once as unipuerto, and once as multi mountain stage, and the order changes every eyar.

 

[Froome]

No.

Just compare 2004 and 2001. Less than 30" faster as an ITT. And Vingegaard would have to be a minute faster than Armstrong.

The bikes are more light and aerodinamic now. He doesn't need to push 6.8 or 6.9 w/kg to do 36 min and 50 s like pantani.

6.5 w/kg on alpe d'huez probably equals to 36 min and 50 s on these days.

It would be like a FTP test, and it would be a surprise if he couldn't do in a TT, fresh, at least 6.5 w/kg in 36 min and 50 s.

 

[snipeheem]

No.

Just compare 2004 and 2001. Less than 30" faster as an ITT. And Vingegaard would have to be a minute faster than Armstrong.

What about normal stage, not TT? Sub 38 for him and pogacar?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

The bikes are more light and aerodinamic now. He doesn't need to push 6.8 or 6.9 w/kg to do 36 min and 50 s like pantani.

6.5 w/kg on alpe d'huez probably equals to 36 min and 50 s on these days.

It would be like a FTP test, and it would be a surprise if he couldn't do in a TT, fresh, at least 6.5 w/kg in 36 min and 50 s.

6.5 w/kg for 37 minutes is absolutely free for someone like Pogačar, Emu Buchmann publishes his wattages on Strava and he did 6.5 w/kg for 20 minutes during his Teide training camp and that wasn‘t even enough to make Bora‘s Giro team.

 

[AmRacer]

I'd like to see what Evenepoel can do at such stage.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

6.5 w/kg for 37 minutes is absolutely free for someone like Pogačar, Emu Buchmann publishes his wattages on Strava and he did 6.5 w/kg for 20 minutes during his Teide training camp and that wasn‘t even enough to make Bora‘s Giro team.

So far Pogacar has never done 6.5 w/kg for over half an hour in an actual race. He's likely capable of doing it for 35-40 minutes in a standalone effort closer to the sea level but not necessarily at elevations 1500-1800 m.

 

[Cookster15]

The bikes are more light and aerodinamic now. He doesn't need to push 6.8 or 6.9 w/kg to do 36 min and 50 s like pantani.

6.5 w/kg on alpe d'huez probably equals to 36 min and 50 s on these days.

It would be like a FTP test, and it would be a surprise if he couldn't do in a TT, fresh, at least 6.5 w/kg in 36 min and 50 s.

FYI, I think Pantani’s bike was pretty close to today’s limit - even though it wasn’t carbon. You can Google it. So today’s bike advantages are more aerodynamics than weight IMO. And recent research has shown the watt savings from aero are significant at slower speeds than originally assumed. That means even on 8% climbs like the Alpe. I didn’t believe it either until I saw the science.

 

[Red Rick]

6.5 w/kg for 37 minutes is absolutely free for someone like Pogačar, Emu Buchmann publishes his wattages on Strava and he did 6.5 w/kg for 20 minutes during his Teide training camp and that wasn‘t even enough to make Bora‘s Giro team.

So far Pogacar has never done 6.5 w/kg for over half an hour in an actual race. He's likely capable of doing it for 35-40 minutes in a standalone effort closer to the sea level but not necessarily at elevations 1500-1800 m.

People really underestimate 1) how much these guys can do when really fresh and 2) how big the effect of tactics are.

Pretty sure the estimate for Grand Colombier last year was like 6.3 for >40 minutes and they didn't even go full gas until the final km.

But you're not gonna see an ideally paced AdH in the Tour de France cause Vingegaard and Pogacar get really cautious against each other.

 

[Froome]

People really underestimate 1) how much these guys can do when really fresh and 2) how big the effect of tactics are.

Pretty sure the estimate for Grand Colombier last year was like 6.3 for >40 minutes and they didn't even go full gas until the final km.

But you're not gonna see an ideally paced AdH in the Tour de France cause Vingegaard and Pogacar get really cautious against each other.

I was talking about beating the record in a TT like in the Tour France 2004.

Beating the record after a hard stage, i'm not that sure they can do it.

 

[kingjr]

I really think motors had a bigger effect on races in the 90s. I've seen too many vids of riders attacking and then having like 6 motors or something insane right in front of them.

It may not have been consistently right in front of them, but they certainly were less diligent in keeping them at a distance. And I may like to overrate how big that effect was at the time. Basically I like to relate the motors being close to riders there to riders winning MTFs by bigger gaps in those days.

It may even be that Alpe d'Huez has the least difference between back then and now in that regard.

You would sometimes see about 6 motorbikes with photographers spread across the entire road directly in front of the riders.

 

[kingjr]

Are you sure you are being objective? Check the 2022 video. There are also moments where the moto is well within drafting range of Pog/Vingegaard. Likewise in 1995, much of the climb the motos are well out of range of Pantani - crowds or not.

But I certainly disagree with your “massive” choice of wording to describe any perceived drafting benefit in the 90s. And due to aero advancements bikes are faster today - even at 22km/h. My word would be “inconclusive”.

Anyway, glad to get the conversation going 🙂

Watch the 99 Madonna di Campiglio stage, it's one of the silliest things you've ever seen, I promise.

 

[Cookster15]

I was talking about beating the record in a TT like in the Tour France 2004.

Beating the record after a hard stage, i'm not that sure they can do it.

In 2004 many predicted Lance would beat Pantani's record. But he still fell nearly a minute short.

Also in 1995 (stage 10) which was 162km they rode the Madeleine and Croix de Fer before the Alpe. And stage 10 was the 3rd day in the Alpes (stage 9 finished at La Plagne) so they certainly were not fresh. But looking at those results its clear Indurain was a beast for his consistency in the mountains.