Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Netserk]

Visma is just doing what they were doing with Yates in the Giro. Save energy as much as possible for the last stage. Difference is that they are already in the lead which makes it a bit easier. Looking forward to his ITT. If he does one like at the TDF, Almeida has a real shot

He lost a bit under 7 seconds over 33 km to Almeida in the Tour when he had a bad day in the ITT.

To halve the gap in GC, he'd need to lose 10 times as much time per km of ITT.

 

[Red Rick]

He lost a bit under 7 seconds over 33 km to Almeida in the Tour when he had a bad day in the ITT.

To halve the gap in GC, he'd need to lose 10 times as much time per km of ITT.

Bad day when healthy, now he's climbing like this I would fear worse.

In the Valladolid TT of 2023 he lost 1s/min to Almeida. And how Vingegaard was climbing on stage 9 of that Vuelta is perhaps most similar of what we saw yesterday.

 

[Rackham]

The dude is ill. It's clear as sunlight.

He's extremely inconsistent compared to where he was 2 years ago. He blows hot and cold to the point he's almost unreadable now tbh.

He's had good days (but not amazing) but also bad days (but not catastrophic either) in the Dauphiné, Tour and now Vuelta. That's a 3 month span which IMO suggests Vingegaard's problem isn't illness related per se.

It's something else IMO.

 

[Netserk]

Kelderman, Van Baarle, Kuss, Jorgenson, I think they're all a foot taller.

 

[KoopaCycling]

I will say this, after all these shortened stages somewhat in Jonas his favour, a collapse now would be truly strange.

 

[Red Rick]

He's extremely inconsistent compared to where he was 2 years ago. He blows hot and cold to the point he's almost unreadable now tbh.

He's had good days (but not amazing) but also bad days (but not catastrophic either) in the Dauphiné, Tour and now Vuelta. That's a 3 month span which IMO suggests Vingegaard's problem isn't illness related per se.

It's something else IMO.

Campenaerts being a superspreader because he keeps trimming his nosehair which are there to stop you from getting ill. The man is the definition of Marginal Brains(tm)

 

[KoopaCycling]

I find it actually surprising how consistent Pogacar has been. You would think he'll have a somewhat more mediocre season once every 3 years. I'm not that surprised about Vingegaard remaining consistent (which i actually think he has been). For all the training, he does not race as much.

Is what my brain/heart tells me. But if we look at the data. Pogacar does not race that much every season. About the same amount as Vingegaard does. He just has more 1 day races he aims for. The only argument is maybe that Vingegaard only needs to hit top form during early summer. Whereas Pogacar needs to hit multiple peaks.

 

[Netserk]

I will say this, after all these shortened stages somewhat in Jonas his favour, a collapse now would be truly strange.

Both shortened stages were bad for Almeida. He was dropped on Pike and the neutralisation meant no bonus seconds at the finish for Vingegaard. Mos was also a bad finish for Almeida, so I don't think it'd have helped him with no protests.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Maybe, i have not been closely following this vuelta. Just reading up a couple of stage articles. the pundits making it sound that almeida is a threat given that Jonas is apparantly not on tour level form. And that this TT was maybe a danger if it had not been shortened again. Honestly, save for illness/crashes, this vuelta felt over before it began. If anything without the protest coming in the news i would have forgotten this race was on till the news reported on vingegaard victory.

I'm baffled by the people ruining cycling. I'm all for freedom of opinion. But you can't endanger people in order to show off your opinion. That should not be allowed.

 

[Netserk]

Maybe, i have not been closely following this vuelta. Just reading up a couple of stage articles. the pundits making it sound that almeida is a threat given that Jonas is apparantly not on tour level form. And that this TT was maybe a danger if it had not been shortened again. Honestly, save for illness/crashes, this vuelta felt over before it began. If anything without the protest coming in the news i would have forgotten this race was on till the news reported on vingegaard victory.

Almeida is the singular threat, but his only gains so far were the TTT and winning the "sprint" for the stage win on Angliru, adding up to the difference Vingegaard made in the sprint on stage 2. He hasn't gapped Vingegaard in the race, and was even worse than him on the MTF yesterday.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Almeida is the singular threat, but his only gains so far were the TTT and winning the "sprint" for the stage win on Angliru, adding up to the difference Vingegaard made in the sprint on stage 2. He hasn't gapped Vingegaard in the race, and was even worse than him on the MTF yesterday.

i could form opinions on that. but without data it won't matter much. you would need to know almeida, Vingegaard, Pogacar top performance data, and measure current performances up to that. Mostly it's interesting to know if almeida is overblown or has genuinely developed. Mostly though I see Pidcock sitting in third place. And that tells me enough about the level of this vuelta. Ofcourse i can be entirely wrong. about Pidcock, but i just don't rate him as a GC guy at all.

 

[ppanther92]

Looking forward to his ITT. If he does one like at the TDF, Almeida has a real shot

It hought so as well but on 12km even with an horrible - what can he lose realistically? 20-30s max.

 

[Cycling111]

The change to the time trial has benefited him. If you look at the PCS, Almeida has always beaten him in completely flat time trials. In the 2023 Vuelta, he was 28 seconds ahead. It was a very worrying data with a gap of 50 seconds.

If he hasn't gone this year, he'll be waiting for something that doesn't exist at the WC .

https://twitter.com/x/status/1966064181641359578

View: https://x.com/RenaudB31/status/1966064181641359578

 

[theyoungest]

He's extremely inconsistent compared to where he was 2 years ago. He blows hot and cold to the point he's almost unreadable now tbh.

He's had good days (but not amazing) but also bad days (but not catastrophic either) in the Dauphiné, Tour and now Vuelta. That's a 3 month span which IMO suggests Vingegaard's problem isn't illness related per se.

It's something else IMO.

I wouldn't say he's been very inconsistent this Vuelta... he started out quite well, resulting in two stage wins, and after that he's just been progressively more tired. He probably won't collapse completely, that never happens to him, but there's simply not much left in the tank.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

At what point do we start talking about his pre-Tour schedule, or rather the decision to have a lack thereof? His worst stages in the Tour were early on, suggesting he'd come in a bit undercooked, and at the same time it hasn't helped him maintain freshness in this Vuelta at all. Visma have forgotten the benefits of good hard racing kilometres in the legs.

 

[Red Rick]

At what point do we start talking about his pre-Tour schedule, or rather the decision to have a lack thereof? His worst stages in the Tour were early on, suggesting he'd come in a bit undercooked, and at the same time it hasn't helped him maintain freshness in this Vuelta at all. Visma have forgotten the benefits of good hard racing kilometres in the legs.

Not just the combination of light schedule before the Dauphine, but the very light schedule of 2024 as well. They possibly play a role, but we hear from quite a few riders there's illness going around.

For this Vuelta, it also just seems Vingegaard has adopted a piece of Dutch culture in embracing our glorious Zesjescultuur

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Not that good performance but he defended himself decently (it would have been pretty bad if he hadn't on such a short course). It's all about surviving Bola del Mundo and win the Vuelta: 40 seconds is a decent gap but not insurmountable of course.

 

[Red Rick]

40s on the Bola is a lot when he has not gapped you at any point in the previous 3 weeks.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

40s on the Bola is a lot when he has not gapped you at any point in the previous 3 weeks.

Yes, Almeida would have to be considerably stronger than Vingegaard to win the race.

 

[Netserk]

At what point do we start talking about his pre-Tour schedule, or rather the decision to have a lack thereof? His worst stages in the Tour were early on, suggesting he'd come in a bit undercooked, and at the same time it hasn't helped him maintain freshness in this Vuelta at all. Visma have forgotten the benefits of good hard racing kilometres in the legs.

With so many riders ill, I don't think it's obvious that racing in March is the difference.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

40s on the Bola is a lot when he has not gapped you at any point in the previous 3 weeks.

I don't see it happening at all. Worst case for Vingegaard is a La Covatilla 2020-esque scenario.

 

[Netserk]

Not just the combination of light schedule before the Dauphine, but the very light schedule of 2024 as well. They possibly play a role, but we hear from quite a few riders there's illness going around.

For this Vuelta, it also just seems Vingegaard has adopted a piece of Dutch culture in embracing our glorious Zesjescultuur

His schedule in 22-23 was not all that different to 24-25. His concussion forcing him off the bike is not really a choice he made.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

With so many riders ill, I don't think it's obvious that racing in March is the difference.

I'm not only talking about the past week or so of this Vuelta. And the context that Visma has had way more underperformers than overperformers for the second season running, while having most of their riders deliberately doing light schedules, is also a red flag.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not only talking about the past week or so of this Vuelta. And the context that Visma has had way more underperformers than overperformers for the second season running, while having most of their riders deliberately doing light schedules, is also a red flag.

Kuss doing only the Vuelta and sucking last year is pretty funny after he won it doing all 3. This year he's back to his normal schedule, and basically back to his normal level.

 

[Netserk]

I'm not only talking about the past week or so of this Vuelta. And the context that Visma has had way more underperformers than overperformers for the second season running, while having most of their riders deliberately doing light schedules, is also a red flag.

They have always had light racing schedules. Both this and last year were more obviously affected by illness and crashes.

Jorgenson was great last year, and he had the exact same schedule up to the Tour. He had a saddle sore in the pre-Dauphiné training camp and got ill during the Tour this year. In the spring, he was super strong.