Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Samu Cuenca]

Apart from Jonas, I don't think any of their other riders can even top 5 the Tour, let alone podium

Most likely not, no, although, as already mentioned, we still haven't seen GC Jorgenson for real. If Kuss can reach his 2023 Vuelta level top 5 won't be totally out of the question either, but the chance of that happening may be pretty slim. It's probably too early for Nordhagen, and even if Piganzoli raises his level by a lot this year he likely won't be doing the Tour anyway.

We have no idea what Schiffer is capable of yet, while Armirail could be the type of guy who has one crazy GT left in him. However, for any of their riders to end up fighting for a top 5 it will likely require that Vingegaard drops out of GC contention very early on in the race, and/or that multiple riders from other teams suffer the same fate.

 

[Tanakka]

... he won't finish on the podium if his main opponents Pogacar, Evenepoel, Lipowitz, Ayuso stay out of harms way.
Is that too strict? You can try to give a different version.

Let's not get carried away.
Perhaps.
But those scenarios are a big IF.

1)Ayuso has a lot to prove.
2) when it comes to Remco:
there's very little ITT in 2026's TdF and will 'Jonas with Giro in his legs' be any worse than '2024 Jonas after crash in Izulia'?
I doubt it.
3) Lipo is strong, but in 2025 he was 6:36 minutes behind Vingo. Not 2, not 3, but 6 and a half.
Therefore...

 

[Cycling111]

Most likely not, no, although, as already mentioned, we still haven't seen GC Jorgenson for real. If Kuss can reach his 2023 Vuelta level top 5 won't be totally out of the question either, but the chance of that happening may be pretty slim. It's probably too early for Nordhagen, and even if Piganzoli raises his level by a lot this year he likely won't be doing the Tour anyway.

We have no idea what Schiffer is capable of yet, while Armirail could be the type of guy who has one crazy GT left in him. However, for any of their riders to end up fighting for a top 5 it will likely require that Vingegaard drops out of GC contention very early on in the race, and/or that multiple riders from other teams suffer the same fate.

GC Armirail? 😳

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Most likely not, no, although, as already mentioned, we still haven't seen GC Jorgenson for real. If Kuss can reach his 2023 Vuelta level top 5 won't be totally out of the question either, but the chance of that happening may be pretty slim. It's probably too early for Nordhagen, and even if Piganzoli raises his level by a lot this year he likely won't be doing the Tour anyway.

We have no idea what Schiffer is capable of yet, while Armirail could be the type of guy who has one crazy GT left in him. However, for any of their riders to end up fighting for a top 5 it will likely require that Vingegaard drops out of GC contention very early on in the race, and/or that multiple riders from other teams suffer the same fate.

I find it a lot more likely that if Jonas drops out they just focus on stages from breakaways. 5th cannot be a success if you have 2 wins and 3x2nd in the last 5 years

 

[Red Rick]

I find it a lot more likely that if Jonas drops out they just focus on stages from breakaways. 5th cannot be a success if you have 2 wins and 3x2nd in the last 5 years

Vingegaard in a breakaway?

The Polittbureau will send the entire peloton to Gulag if that happens

 

[Berniece]

Let's not get carried away.
Perhaps.
But those scenarios are a big IF.

1)Ayuso has a lot to prove.
2) when it comes to Remco:
there's very little ITT in 2026's TdF and will 'Jonas with Giro in his legs' be any worse than '2024 Jonas after crash in Izulia'?
I doubt it.
3) Lipo is strong, but in 2025 he was 6:36 minutes behind Vingo. Not 2, not 3, but 6 and a half.
Therefore...

I'm not sure if Vingegaard TDF 2024 was much worse than Vingegaard TDF 2025. I also expect Lipowitz to get better due to his age

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I find it a lot more likely that if Jonas drops out they just focus on stages from breakaways. 5th cannot be a success if you have 2 wins and 3x2nd in the last 5 years

For Vingegaard a top 5 obviously won't matter, but it could be important for the team to get more GC data in regards to other riders. There's no doubt they will be hunting stages, too, in thsi scenario, which could also very well be the case even if Vingegaard is at his very best.

GC Armirail? 😳

It wouldn't be the weirdest thing we've ever seen in this sport. He will of course have to improve quite a bit, cause his subpar top climbing level and lack of endurance have let him down during GTs so far in his career.

 

[jotafap]

Why are we assuming, before the season even starts, that riders like Ayuso or Remco will make such a big jump in GTs? As far as we know, none of them are real competition for Vingegaard, with or without the Giro.

Let’s remember that the current third-best GT rider, in my opinion João Almeida, had no real chance of beating Vingegaard at the Vuelta. Sure, Almeida probably wasn’t at the top of his game either, but unless Vingegaard is way out of peak, he will still be far more reliable than anyone else except Pogacar, and maybe Lipowitz.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

That's true, not need to overcomplicate it. It's just an avatar bet anyway. I would put that margin on 6min.

I upped it by 1min because being less strict, if Almeida crashes or gets sick, it'll be much easier to get a 5min head start. If he stays upright, 6min lead is doable but hard.

Since year 2000, the winning margin has only exceeded 6 minutes 4 times: only 6 times has it been more than 3 minutes. I suspect the bet will be null and that you will both have your preferred avatars throughout August.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Why are we assuming, before the season even starts, that riders like Ayuso or Remco will make such a big jump in GTs? As far as we know, none of them are real competition for Vingegaard, with or without the Giro.

Let’s remember that the current third-best GT rider, in my opinion João Almeida, had no real chance of beating Vingegaard at the Vuelta. Sure, Almeida probably wasn’t at the top of his game either, but unless Vingegaard is way out of peak, he will still be far more reliable than anyone else except Pogacar, and maybe Lipowitz.

I wouldn't say Almeida had no chance at all in the Vuelta. He wasn't strong enough when in the decisive moments, but he was also unlucky with his lack of support and the route alterations in Bilbao and for the ITT. I don't think it's certain the race couldn't have ended differently. We also didn't get to see how they would have matched up in the Tour.

 

[jotafap]

I wouldn't say Almeida had no chance at all in the Vuelta. He wasn't strong enough when in the decisive moments, but he was also unlucky with his lack of support and the route alterations in Bilbao and for the ITT. I don't think it's certain the race couldn't have ended differently. We also didn't get to see how they would have matched up in the Tour.

Yes, I agree the level was really close between the two. but i said that because Almeida was never able to drop Jonas, not even when the Dane was clearly ill. Of course, different teams or tactics could have been enough to change the result, but unfortunately the better rider won... and I say that as a Portuguese myself. 😂

 

[Netserk]

Since year 2000, the winning margin has only exceeded 6 minutes 4 times: only 6 times has it been more than 3 minutes. I suspect the bet will be null and that you will both have your preferred avatars throughout August.

my median expected outcome is a winning margin between two and four minutes, but in the scenario where he wins by more than six minutes, he should be so strong that he can afford to be weaker in the tour and still finish second easily.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Vingegaard in a breakaway?

The Polittbureau will send the entire peloton to Gulag if that happens

I mean quits Tour entirely

 

[Cycling111]

For Vingegaard a top 5 obviously won't matter, but it could be important for the team to get more GC data in regards to other riders. There's no doubt they will be hunting stages, too, in thsi scenario, which could also very well be the case even if Vingegaard is at his very best.



It wouldn't be the weirdest thing we've ever seen in this sport. He will of course have to improve quite a bit, cause his subpar top climbing level and lack of endurance have let him down during GTs so far in his career.

Yes, Visma is the new Sky in that respect. They've won GT with four riders in less than 10 years, something only Sky had previously achieved.

It seemed unlikely that someone like Kuss or Simon Yates, who was in decline in 2024, would win a GT before Almeida or Ayuso. And seeing that, I wouldn't rule out Jorgenson winning a GT and Almeida, Del Toro or Ayuso doesn't. But Armirail's GC potential at 32 is too much

 

[hayneplane]

Vingegaard in a breakaway?

The Polittbureau will send the entire peloton to Gulag if that happens

Which would just be karma for Van Hooydonk sitting on Pogacar on Champs Elysee stage 3 years ago when he was 6 minutes behind.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

It wouldn't be the weirdest thing we've ever seen in this sport. He will of course have to improve quite a bit, cause his subpar top climbing level and lack of endurance have let him down during GTs so far in his career.

It would be pretty close to the weirdest thing we have seen tho...
Armirails best GT result is 16th in the 2023 Giro, a weak edition where he was gifted 21 minutes and the pink jersey on stage 14...
His only top 15 in a WT stage race is a 10th in Pologne, won by GC powerhouse Ethan Hayter. Tour Poitou is basically the only stage race hes ever finished top 10. He needs to improve a loooooot and to be given big advantage from a break.

 

[theyoungest]

Which would just be karma for Van Hooydonk sitting on Pogacar on Champs Elysee stage 3 years ago when he was 6 minutes behind.

How about Pogacar sitting on Vingegaard's wheel for the entire Ventoux and then sprinting away at the finish?

Btw Van Hooydonck later said that for the team it was fine if he took turns, but he simply couldn't because Pogi was too strong. Make of that what you will.

 

[Red Rick]

Which would just be karma for Van Hooydonk sitting on Pogacar on Champs Elysee stage 3 years ago when he was 6 minutes behind.

Nothing is karma like terrorizing the peloton for years over imagined slights, yes.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

It would be pretty close to the weirdest thing we have seen tho...
Armirails best GT result is 16th in the 2023 Giro, a weak edition where he was gifted 21 minutes and the pink jersey on stage 14...
His only top 15 in a WT stage race is a 10th in Pologne, won by GC powerhouse Ethan Hayter. Tour Poitou is basically the only stage race hes ever finished top 10. He needs to improve a loooooot and to be given big advantage from a break.

Sure, he would obviously need a lot of things go his way, but in a world where Derek Gee exists I won't rule anything out.

 

[hayneplane]

How about Pogacar sitting on Vingegaard's wheel for the entire Ventoux and then sprinting away at the finish?

Btw Van Hooydonck later said that for the team it was fine if he took turns, but he simply couldn't because Pogi was too strong. Make of that what you will.

Nah that’s just standard GC leaders racing. If you were to cite Pogacar jumping every time time Jorgensen made a move in the Tour then that would be fair to call that out as petty.

 

[Oldman]

Jorgenson in TDF 2024 might?

I would agree, partly as a fan. That would also assume some serious effort at JV support which hasn't been clearly offered to anyone other than Jonas. Could be an interesting season; particularly if one of the 2nd class citizens on JV do well in other races and Jonas doesn't come home with the goods.

 

[Tim Cahill]

I suspect Jorgenson might have too big a frame to do a top GT GC, 10 years ago he would've got away with it, but the w/kg is too high at the moment, I saw his DEXA scan a while ago and he didn't have an ounce of fat on him at 69kg 1.90m. Unfortunately he risks going for multiple conflicting goals and getting neither so will have to decide at some point, but it would be interesting to see him try and do an Abrahamsen and pack on 10 kilos of muscle, he is already a really good classics rider.

 

[yaco]

If Vingegaard wins the Giro d'Italia with more than 5min on Almeida, while both riders didn't crash or gotten sick during important build up moments, or the GT itself. And Vingegaard then rides the TDF, also in perfect health, he won't finish on the podium if his main opponents Pogacar, Evenepoel, Lipowitz, Ayuso stay out of harms way.

Is that too strict? You can try to give a different version.

Biggest issue is doing 4 GTs in a row.

 

[Tanakka]

Biggest issue is doing 4 GTs in a row.

Can we consider Vuelta-Giro as actually being 'in a row"?
Two GTs each year for two consecutive years, ok, that's one thing.
But "in a row".
I'am not convinced.

Plus, in 2025:
62 race days: 61 of which stage races, and a DNF at CC
doesn't appear like a crazy schedule

 

[Peter von]

Vingegaard is susch a pure stage racer, that it makes a lot of sense for him to try an maximize his seasons to compete in multiple GTs.
I guess the Giro-Tour has to be tried, especially since many still consider Giro bigger than Vuelta, especially when he has won in Spain before.

Can we consider Vuelta-Giro as actually being 'in a row"?
Two GTs each year for two consecutive years, ok, that's one thing.
But "in a row".
I'am not convinced.

Plus, in 2025:
62 race days: 61 of which stage races, and a DNF at CC
doesn't appear like a crazy schedule

Technically they are in a row, but I agree it's very different to being in the same season.