Hello all.
I sometimes do a preview of various things cycling for a few friends who love a punt, as I do and whom I'm trying to convert to cycling. Here, for what it's worth, is what I think about the polka-dot contenders ...
I say this every year, but here goes anyway ... Picking the winner of this is as much about finding who will target it as it is about who is capable of winning it. Any of the top 10 GC hopefuls could win it in a canter if they sacrificed GC ambitions. None will, however, unless for some reason they lose significant time before they hit the mountains and are therefore out of GC contention.
It helps to have four elements to win KOTM:
a) Good climbing ability (though you don't need to be Contador).
b) Motivation to win it and the team freedom to do so (i.e. it's more difficult to win it while suppporting a GC rider, though it does happen).
c) Can't be a GC contender or you'll be chased down in breakaways.
d) Drugs (but since David Moncoutie isn't there we can assume they are all on drugs, so let's put this to one side).
Picking the KOTM winner is therefore a process of elimination, so let's go through them by team:
Astana - As long a everyone is riding to support Contador the winner probably won't come from this team.
Saxo Bank - As long a everyone is riding to support Schleck the winner probably won't come from this team.
Radioshack - As long a everyone is riding to support Armstrong the winner probably won't come from this team.
Sky - As long a everyone is riding to support Wiggins the winner probably won't come from this team.
Liquigas - As long a everyone is riding to support Basso or Kreuziger the winner probably won't come from this team.
Cervelo - As long a everyone is riding to support Sastre the winner probably won't come from this team.
Rabobank - As long a everyone is riding to support Menchov the winner probably won't come from this team (Gesink a possible exception).
BMC - As long a everyone is riding to support Evans the winner probably won't come from this team.
Garmin - Largely a sprinters' team ... doesn't have a good enough climber.
HTC Columbia - Largely a sprinters' team ... doesn't have a good enough climber.
Milram - No one good enough.
Quick Step - No one good enough.
Caisse D'Epargne - No one good enough (though Luis Leon Sanchez is close, he will likely target stage wins).
So, that elimates well over half the field ... going through the other teams I'll list the only riders who are potentially good enough to win ...
AG2R - John Gadret.
Omega Lotto - Jurgen Van Den Broek and Matthew Lloyd.
Katusha - Joaquin Rodriguez.
Francais des Jeux - Christian Le Mevel.
BBox - Pierick Fedrigo and Pierre Roland.
Cofidis - Reine Taaramae and Amael Moinard.
Euskaltel - Sammy Sanchez, Egoi Martinez and Amets Txurruka.
Lampre - Damiano Cunego.
Footon Servetto - Eros Capecchi.
That gets us down to 14 riders. Next, I'll cross off Sanchez, Gadret, Rodriguez and Van Den Broek because I think they are too big a threat to finish in the top 10 on the GC to be given the leeway needed to pursue KOTM.
Next, I think it helps to be at least 8-10 minutes off the lead when they get to the mountains. At this stage that means I'll cross off Roland, Fedrigo, Martinez and Le Mevel, though they may lose time in the next few days and therefore come into contention.
Of the remaining 6 riders, here are their prices (using the oppressively short NZ TAB prices for convenience only - you'll find better elsewhere).
Matthew Lloyd - $25
Reine Taaramae - $12
Amael Moinard - $50
Amets Txurruka - $25
Damiano Cunego - $15
Eros Capecchi - $50
All these guys are reasonably good bets at long odds but, partly simply because the price is too enticing, I'm going to say Amael Moinard. He is an excellent climber (won KOTM at this year's Paris-Nice and also won a stage that included three category 1 climbs even after he'd wrapped up the KOTM). He is not a threat to GC contenders (already 11:23 off the lead). He rides for a team (Cofidis) that does not have a top sprinter, GC contender, or top young rider, so all they have to target is stage wins and the KOTM. His teammate Reine Taaramae is just as good a chance but there is such a difference in their prices that I'd much rather have a few dollars on Moinard.
Of the rest, it seems clear Lloyd is targeting KOTM and he won it at this year's Giro, so I'd say he's the next best bet (always had a soft spot for him since seeing him dominate the Tour of Wellington ridiculously easily a few years ago).
Having said all that, picking the winner of the KOTM is a very imprecise science .... good luck all the same.
I sometimes do a preview of various things cycling for a few friends who love a punt, as I do and whom I'm trying to convert to cycling. Here, for what it's worth, is what I think about the polka-dot contenders ...
I say this every year, but here goes anyway ... Picking the winner of this is as much about finding who will target it as it is about who is capable of winning it. Any of the top 10 GC hopefuls could win it in a canter if they sacrificed GC ambitions. None will, however, unless for some reason they lose significant time before they hit the mountains and are therefore out of GC contention.
It helps to have four elements to win KOTM:
a) Good climbing ability (though you don't need to be Contador).
b) Motivation to win it and the team freedom to do so (i.e. it's more difficult to win it while suppporting a GC rider, though it does happen).
c) Can't be a GC contender or you'll be chased down in breakaways.
d) Drugs (but since David Moncoutie isn't there we can assume they are all on drugs, so let's put this to one side).
Picking the KOTM winner is therefore a process of elimination, so let's go through them by team:
Astana - As long a everyone is riding to support Contador the winner probably won't come from this team.
Saxo Bank - As long a everyone is riding to support Schleck the winner probably won't come from this team.
Radioshack - As long a everyone is riding to support Armstrong the winner probably won't come from this team.
Sky - As long a everyone is riding to support Wiggins the winner probably won't come from this team.
Liquigas - As long a everyone is riding to support Basso or Kreuziger the winner probably won't come from this team.
Cervelo - As long a everyone is riding to support Sastre the winner probably won't come from this team.
Rabobank - As long a everyone is riding to support Menchov the winner probably won't come from this team (Gesink a possible exception).
BMC - As long a everyone is riding to support Evans the winner probably won't come from this team.
Garmin - Largely a sprinters' team ... doesn't have a good enough climber.
HTC Columbia - Largely a sprinters' team ... doesn't have a good enough climber.
Milram - No one good enough.
Quick Step - No one good enough.
Caisse D'Epargne - No one good enough (though Luis Leon Sanchez is close, he will likely target stage wins).
So, that elimates well over half the field ... going through the other teams I'll list the only riders who are potentially good enough to win ...
AG2R - John Gadret.
Omega Lotto - Jurgen Van Den Broek and Matthew Lloyd.
Katusha - Joaquin Rodriguez.
Francais des Jeux - Christian Le Mevel.
BBox - Pierick Fedrigo and Pierre Roland.
Cofidis - Reine Taaramae and Amael Moinard.
Euskaltel - Sammy Sanchez, Egoi Martinez and Amets Txurruka.
Lampre - Damiano Cunego.
Footon Servetto - Eros Capecchi.
That gets us down to 14 riders. Next, I'll cross off Sanchez, Gadret, Rodriguez and Van Den Broek because I think they are too big a threat to finish in the top 10 on the GC to be given the leeway needed to pursue KOTM.
Next, I think it helps to be at least 8-10 minutes off the lead when they get to the mountains. At this stage that means I'll cross off Roland, Fedrigo, Martinez and Le Mevel, though they may lose time in the next few days and therefore come into contention.
Of the remaining 6 riders, here are their prices (using the oppressively short NZ TAB prices for convenience only - you'll find better elsewhere).
Matthew Lloyd - $25
Reine Taaramae - $12
Amael Moinard - $50
Amets Txurruka - $25
Damiano Cunego - $15
Eros Capecchi - $50
All these guys are reasonably good bets at long odds but, partly simply because the price is too enticing, I'm going to say Amael Moinard. He is an excellent climber (won KOTM at this year's Paris-Nice and also won a stage that included three category 1 climbs even after he'd wrapped up the KOTM). He is not a threat to GC contenders (already 11:23 off the lead). He rides for a team (Cofidis) that does not have a top sprinter, GC contender, or top young rider, so all they have to target is stage wins and the KOTM. His teammate Reine Taaramae is just as good a chance but there is such a difference in their prices that I'd much rather have a few dollars on Moinard.
Of the rest, it seems clear Lloyd is targeting KOTM and he won it at this year's Giro, so I'd say he's the next best bet (always had a soft spot for him since seeing him dominate the Tour of Wellington ridiculously easily a few years ago).
Having said all that, picking the winner of the KOTM is a very imprecise science .... good luck all the same.
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