• The Cycling News forum is looking to add some volunteer moderators with Red Rick's recent retirement. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

KOTM thoughts after Stage 3

Hello all.

I sometimes do a preview of various things cycling for a few friends who love a punt, as I do and whom I'm trying to convert to cycling. Here, for what it's worth, is what I think about the polka-dot contenders ...


I say this every year, but here goes anyway ... Picking the winner of this is as much about finding who will target it as it is about who is capable of winning it. Any of the top 10 GC hopefuls could win it in a canter if they sacrificed GC ambitions. None will, however, unless for some reason they lose significant time before they hit the mountains and are therefore out of GC contention.

It helps to have four elements to win KOTM:

a) Good climbing ability (though you don't need to be Contador).
b) Motivation to win it and the team freedom to do so (i.e. it's more difficult to win it while suppporting a GC rider, though it does happen).
c) Can't be a GC contender or you'll be chased down in breakaways.
d) Drugs (but since David Moncoutie isn't there we can assume they are all on drugs, so let's put this to one side).

Picking the KOTM winner is therefore a process of elimination, so let's go through them by team:

Astana - As long a everyone is riding to support Contador the winner probably won't come from this team.
Saxo Bank - As long a everyone is riding to support Schleck the winner probably won't come from this team.
Radioshack - As long a everyone is riding to support Armstrong the winner probably won't come from this team.
Sky - As long a everyone is riding to support Wiggins the winner probably won't come from this team.
Liquigas - As long a everyone is riding to support Basso or Kreuziger the winner probably won't come from this team.
Cervelo - As long a everyone is riding to support Sastre the winner probably won't come from this team.
Rabobank - As long a everyone is riding to support Menchov the winner probably won't come from this team (Gesink a possible exception).
BMC - As long a everyone is riding to support Evans the winner probably won't come from this team.
Garmin - Largely a sprinters' team ... doesn't have a good enough climber.
HTC Columbia - Largely a sprinters' team ... doesn't have a good enough climber.
Milram - No one good enough.
Quick Step - No one good enough.
Caisse D'Epargne - No one good enough (though Luis Leon Sanchez is close, he will likely target stage wins).

So, that elimates well over half the field ... going through the other teams I'll list the only riders who are potentially good enough to win ...

AG2R - John Gadret.
Omega Lotto - Jurgen Van Den Broek and Matthew Lloyd.
Katusha - Joaquin Rodriguez.
Francais des Jeux - Christian Le Mevel.
BBox - Pierick Fedrigo and Pierre Roland.
Cofidis - Reine Taaramae and Amael Moinard.
Euskaltel - Sammy Sanchez, Egoi Martinez and Amets Txurruka.
Lampre - Damiano Cunego.
Footon Servetto - Eros Capecchi.

That gets us down to 14 riders. Next, I'll cross off Sanchez, Gadret, Rodriguez and Van Den Broek because I think they are too big a threat to finish in the top 10 on the GC to be given the leeway needed to pursue KOTM.

Next, I think it helps to be at least 8-10 minutes off the lead when they get to the mountains. At this stage that means I'll cross off Roland, Fedrigo, Martinez and Le Mevel, though they may lose time in the next few days and therefore come into contention.

Of the remaining 6 riders, here are their prices (using the oppressively short NZ TAB prices for convenience only - you'll find better elsewhere).

Matthew Lloyd - $25
Reine Taaramae - $12
Amael Moinard - $50
Amets Txurruka - $25
Damiano Cunego - $15
Eros Capecchi - $50

All these guys are reasonably good bets at long odds but, partly simply because the price is too enticing, I'm going to say Amael Moinard. He is an excellent climber (won KOTM at this year's Paris-Nice and also won a stage that included three category 1 climbs even after he'd wrapped up the KOTM). He is not a threat to GC contenders (already 11:23 off the lead). He rides for a team (Cofidis) that does not have a top sprinter, GC contender, or top young rider, so all they have to target is stage wins and the KOTM. His teammate Reine Taaramae is just as good a chance but there is such a difference in their prices that I'd much rather have a few dollars on Moinard.

Of the rest, it seems clear Lloyd is targeting KOTM and he won it at this year's Giro, so I'd say he's the next best bet (always had a soft spot for him since seeing him dominate the Tour of Wellington ridiculously easily a few years ago).

Having said all that, picking the winner of the KOTM is a very imprecise science .... good luck all the same.
 
Apr 18, 2010
61
0
0
Visit site
The Barb said:
Caisse D'Epargne - No one good enough (though Luis Leon Sanchez is close, he will likely target stage wins).

Kiriyenka is clearly good enough, he's better than most of the names you've selected. His team doesn't have a real GC rider so he might have a go at the KOM-jersey

JVDB and S. Sanchez are primarily targeting the GC, JVDB for a top 10 and Sanchez for a top 5. If their GC ambitions fail, JVDB might try to take the KOm-jersey, Sanchez will probably try to win a stage in the 3rd week.

My favorites for the KOM are
1. Cunego
2. Rodriguez
3. Kiryienka
4. Fedrigo/Martinez
5. JVDB
 
Jun 22, 2010
176
0
0
Visit site
talk about over thinking it..look at the stats from last year the top 3gc riders were 2nd an 3rd in kom..with more finishes on top of hills look for them;)
 
Jul 8, 2009
36
0
0
Visit site
I'd strongly question calling Lloyd a strong climber. Back when he was riding for Evans in the tour he'd hardly ever make the final selection and was never there to support him (it was only ever Horner). There are many high mountains and frankly, he'd have to be in at least half of the big breaks to even be a chance of claiming.

Agree that Moinard and Cunego are good propositions, but the latter's abandonment of the tour in his last outing in France would concern me. He was in a break a few years back and traded at around 2.5 for the stage win. He got dropped on the 2nd last climb. A repeat occurence concerns me, especially given so much time has been lost already. That said, I'm still strongly considering him, as if he does stay around with form, he'll likely figure in the mountains,
 
Polka Dot Punter said:
I'd strongly question calling Lloyd a strong climber. Back when he was riding for Evans in the tour he'd hardly ever make the final selection and was never there to support him (it was only ever Horner). There are many high mountains and frankly, he'd have to be in at least half of the big breaks to even be a chance of claiming.

Agree that Moinard and Cunego are good propositions, but the latter's abandonment of the tour in his last outing in France would concern me. He was in a break a few years back and traded at around 2.5 for the stage win. He got dropped on the 2nd last climb. A repeat occurence concerns me, especially given so much time has been lost already. That said, I'm still strongly considering him, as if he does stay around with form, he'll likely figure in the mountains,

Lloyd will not win (not even close I don't think). Even if he has one good day, he's not strong enough day after day. He won the Giro KOM based on sole efforts in the first week and final week. Not playing down his efforts, but there are just too many in the TdF who will be chasing the Polka.
 
Jun 22, 2010
176
0
0
Visit site
Polka Dot Punter said:
I'd strongly question calling Lloyd a strong climber. Back when he was riding for Evans in the tour he'd hardly ever make the final selection and was never there to support him (it was only ever Horner). There are many high mountains and frankly, he'd have to be in at least half of the big breaks to even be a chance of claiming.

Agree that Moinard and Cunego are good propositions, but the latter's abandonment of the tour in his last outing in France would concern me. He was in a break a few years back and traded at around 2.5 for the stage win. He got dropped on the 2nd last climb. A repeat occurence concerns me, especially given so much time has been lost already. That said, I'm still strongly considering him, as if he does stay around with form, he'll likely figure in the mountains,

gezzz your a goose...:rolleyes: he is a very strong climber..an your talking crap there mate he wasn't with evans cose he was the water boy,it wasn't his job to stay with him...funny how people think they no it all when they don't...:rolleyes: in saying that he won't win it cose he will look after his team leader
 
Jul 8, 2009
36
0
0
Visit site
auscyclefan94 said:
Pierre Rolland will win and he has said it is a goal.

I know he has said this in the past when he won the KOTM in the dauphine, but I haven't heard him say that for this tour specifically. Didn't contest the points yesterday either (not worth much mind you, but if you're interested...). Where did you read he was targetting this?
 
Jun 16, 2009
19,654
2
0
Visit site
mowie133 said:
gezzz your a goose...:rolleyes: he is a very strong climber..an your talking crap there mate he wasn't with evans cose he was the water boy,it wasn't his job to stay with him...funny how people think they no it all when they don't...:rolleyes: in saying that he won't win it cose he will look after his team leader
Polka dot hunter ain't right but he aint wrong either. He is a good climber but not a strong climber.
Polka Dot Punter said:
I know he has said this in the past when he won the KOTM in the dauphine, but I haven't heard him say that for this tour specifically. Didn't contest the points yesterday either (not worth much mind you, but if you're interested...). Where did you read he was targetting this?

Yes he sure did.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rolland-unlucky-on-the-cobblestones
 
Jul 8, 2009
36
0
0
Visit site
mowie133 said:
gezzz your a goose...:rolleyes: he is a very strong climber..an your talking crap there mate he wasn't with evans cose he was the water boy,it wasn't his job to stay with him...funny how people think they no it all when they don't...:rolleyes: in saying that he won't win it cose he will look after his team leader

Dismissing my opinion whilst bemoaning the fact that people think they know it all. Hypocrit much? If he was a very strong climber, it wouldn't matter if he were Cadel's waterboy or not, because he'd be such a strong climber he'd be there anywhere.

Regardless, he's not beating Gadret or VDB or Cunego up a mountain, and so for the purposes of this conversation, which is WINNING THE KOTM, he's not in the same class. But you are clearly too ****ing stupid to understand context, so I'll just move on.


auscyclefan94 said:
Polka dot hunter ain't right but he aint wrong either. He is a good climber but not a strong climber.


Yes he sure did.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rolland-unlucky-on-the-cobblestones


Thanks for that.
 
Jun 22, 2010
176
0
0
Visit site
:
Polka Dot Punter said:
Dismissing my opinion whilst bemoaning the fact that people think they know it all. Hypocrit much? If he was a very strong climber, it wouldn't matter if he were Cadel's waterboy or not, because he'd be such a strong climber he'd be there anywhere.

Regardless, he's not beating Gadret or VDB or Cunego up a mountain, and so for the purposes of this conversation, which is WINNING THE KOTM, he's not in the same class. But you are clearly too ****ing stupid to understand context, so I'll just move on.





Thanks for that.

lol whats the point it seems you are in love with yourself so i'll let it go...i didn't dismiss it i just said your a tool which you just proved :rolleyes: i don't no it all just i no more then you troll :)
 

TRENDING THREADS