Lance versus Alberto

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Dr. Maserati said:
You should have hung around - the fun was only just begining!
nah.. just read it.. still boring..

ive only been gone a few days and everything has changed.. i invented awards and its come back and bitten me on the @rse :D

im off for another brief break.. the tourists are annoying me.. :D
 
Jun 30, 2009
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dimspace said:
nah.. just read it.. still boring..

ive only been gone a few days and everything has changed.. i invented awards and its come back and bitten me on the @rse :D

im off for another brief break.. the tourists are annoying me.. :D
ok, it's classy gentlemen like this that greeted me. if i'm ever rude, this is why...

*biting tongue* *being better person (even for 'noob)'*
 
Jul 9, 2009
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Ac vs la

So, I get home last night and watch Versus and there's Armstrong saying what I mentioned: if these two keep on scrapping it presents the opportunity for a third rider to win! Does anybody else think that's actually a possibility?
 
Jun 30, 2009
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cody_57 said:
So, I get home last night and watch Versus and there's Armstrong saying what I mentioned: if these two keep on scrapping it presents the opportunity for a third rider to win! Does anybody else think that's actually a possibility?
i don't. a third rider attacking gives both armstrong and contador license to follow and/or counterattack, which is probably what they want... it'd give them a perfect excuse. and i really do, at this point, think that they are the two strongest riders in the race. I don't think anyone that can put in time in annecy can hold it on ventoux, and vice versa.
 
Jun 18, 2009
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ilillillli said:
i don't. a third rider attacking gives both armstrong and contador license to follow and/or counterattack, which is probably what they want... it'd give them a perfect excuse. and i really do, at this point, think that they are the two strongest riders in the race. I don't think anyone that can put in time in annecy can hold it on ventoux, and vice versa.
I disagree with this..... Armstrong hasn't been put under stress yet. Sure, he could ride with the lead bunch as they crawled over the Pyrenees climbs last weekend. However, I don't think you can conclude he is the 2nd strongest rider in the race until we see him on stages 16 and 17, where (hopefully) there will be some decent attacks on the climbs.
 
Cobber said:
I disagree with this..... Armstrong hasn't been put under stress yet. Sure, he could ride with the lead bunch as they crawled over the Pyrenees climbs last weekend. However, I don't think you can conclude he is the 2nd strongest rider in the race until we see him on stages 16 and 17, where (hopefully) there will be some decent attacks on the climbs.
I agree. I think, on some levels, Armstrong is talking himself up . . . trying to convince himself that he is still "Lance" for lack of a better word. Contador seems supremely confident in his abilities (at least based on his statements).
 
Jul 3, 2009
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I'm not a LA fanboy, but I'd put money on him in the TT. But I think no one, including himself, knows how he is going to do in the moutains.

Of course all the haters said he wouldn't even make it thru the Pyrenees...
 
Coach Hawk said:
I'm not a LA fanboy, but I'd put money on him in the TT. But I think no one, including himself, knows how he is going to do in the moutains.

Of course all the haters said he wouldn't even make it thru the Pyrenees...
I think we all thought the stage to Arcalis would have more fireworks. The Pyrenees were pretty disappointing in that regarding, but that's what ASO wanted.
 
Publicus said:
I agree. I think, on some levels, Armstrong is talking himself up . . . trying to convince himself that he is still "Lance" for lack of a better word. Contador seems supremely confident in his abilities (at least based on his statements).
I keep thinking there's no way Armstrong is really that strong, too--dude took three years off, for hell's sake--but I don't know. At this point, I expect him to make a good showing in the third week. Maybe not with the best, but not too far behind them.
 
mr. tibbs said:
I keep thinking there's no way Armstrong is really that strong, too--dude took three years off, for hell's sake--but I don't know. At this point, I expect him to make a good showing in the third week. Maybe not with the best, but not too far behind them.
I guess I should be clear. I think Lance is better than most in this race. I don't know if he's head and shoulders above everyone else in the TT or the mountains the way he was back in his day. That's what I meant when I said he's trying to convince himself that he's still "Lance." I for one won't be betting against him. I just wish he stopped the passive aggressive media play. He's the source of all of the tension and yet pretends like it is mostly a media driven phenomenon.
 
Jun 30, 2009
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Publicus said:
I agree. I think, on some levels, Armstrong is talking himself up . . . trying to convince himself that he is still "Lance" for lack of a better word. Contador seems supremely confident in his abilities (at least based on his statements).
ok, you guys are probably right. there's really no convincing evidence that lance is any stronger than anyone else in the top 15, i think my assumption is primarily based on his rhetoric with maybe a little bit of history (that i knowingly cling to). the only real reason i would give lance the edge over the evans/schlecks/vandevelde groupetto is that to me it is significantly easier for me to imagine lance attacking successfully... or at all. with the exception of sastre, i don't know anyone amongst the contenders that i could imagine deciding to launch an attack, nevermind a successful attack.

Cadel Evans has shown flashes of aggression this year, but never in any sustained, meaningful, tactically wise way. The Schlecks seem to be able to hang with anyone but don't seem to be nearly aggressive enough to make a move of their own. And Annecy makes me think that they'll be fighting to stay in the top 8-10.

I think Sastre's the only rider that might spoil astana's sweep of the podium, but i'm not sure he's got the allaround goods to slip past both alberto and lance.

just my $.02... not trying to be a lance-fanatic (though i know i have that tendency).
 
Jul 13, 2009
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mr. tibbs said:
I keep thinking there's no way Armstrong is really that strong, too--dude took three years off, for hell's sake--but I don't know. At this point, I expect him to make a good showing in the third week. Maybe not with the best, but not too far behind them.
Agreed 100%.
 
Coach Hawk said:
I'm not a LA fanboy, but I'd put money on him in the TT. But I think no one, including himself, knows how he is going to do in the moutains.

Of course all the haters said he wouldn't even make it thru the Pyrenees...
Is everyone here considered a hater if they doubt or don't support Armstrong?
That's the way it seems.
 
Jun 30, 2009
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Angliru said:
Is everyone here considered a hater if they doubt or don't support Armstrong?
That's the way it seems.
yeah. and vice versa. there should be a poll or an open thread:

lance armstrong: EPO-fueled cycling decepticon or world's greatest human?

pick one. there's really no room for grey.
 
Apr 21, 2009
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Armstrong

I think that it is highly unlikely that Lance is doing any kind of doping this year, since he is under the microscope as never before (not that he wasn't extensively tested before). Given that he is a bit older and hasn't raced for a few years, it seems to me the a good performance this year would lend credence to the possibility that he never was doping, he was (is) just really strong (genetically gifted), trained incredibly hard, and was incredibly focused (obsessed - hence the "control freak, a&&hole comments that show up here a lot). I don't mean he has to kick **** on everybody to constitute a good performance, but perform credibly in the mountains and finish well (podium probably). I do expect Contador (and possibly others) to outperform him in the Alps... In addition to being older, I do not think he is as single-minded about winning as he was in past years, and it's going to be reflected in his performance this year.

I do not buy the argument that kicking **** on other riders (some/many of whom may have been / probably were doping) is proof, on it's face, that Armstrong was juiced. The same could be said of Greg Lemond or anyone else who ever won the Tour or any other race in a convincing manner.

These may be unpopular views in this very freindly, open-minded discussion, but isn't it worth considering that a good performance this year is evidence that past performance may be due to something other than cheating?
 
Jul 3, 2009
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Angliru said:
Is everyone here considered a hater if they doubt or don't support Armstrong?
That's the way it seems.
I think you read it backwards: "Haters said he wouldn't make it thru the Pyrenees", NOT "Everyone who thought he'd fail in the Pyrenees is a hater."
 

Dr. Maserati

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Jun 19, 2009
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Rupert said:
I think that it is highly unlikely that Lance is doing any kind of doping this year, since he is under the microscope as never before (not that he wasn't extensively tested before). Given that he is a bit older and hasn't raced for a few years, it seems to me the a good performance this year would lend credence to the possibility that he never was doping, he was (is) just really strong (genetically gifted), trained incredibly hard, and was incredibly focused (obsessed - hence the "control freak, a&&hole comments that show up here a lot). I don't mean he has to kick **** on everybody to constitute a good performance, but perform credibly in the mountains and finish well (podium probably). I do expect Contador (and possibly others) to outperform him in the Alps... In addition to being older, I do not think he is as single-minded about winning as he was in past years, and it's going to be reflected in his performance this year.

I do not buy the argument that kicking **** on other riders (some/many of whom may have been / probably were doping) is proof, on it's face, that Armstrong was juiced. The same could be said of Greg Lemond or anyone else who ever won the Tour or any other race in a convincing manner.

These may be unpopular views in this very friendly, open-minded discussion, but isn't it worth considering that a good performance this year is evidence that past performance may be due to something other than cheating?
This subject has been covered extensively - if you have a search in the forum called the Clinic you will come across it there and you are more than welcome to join the debate there. This forum is a non doping one.

Professional road racing A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.
 
Jun 18, 2009
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Thinking about the last week, if LA is strong, I gotta think he'll have a slight tactical advantage over AC. I worry about AC getting jumpy and going with a break that goes hard, gets caught and enables LA to counter attack. Both riders have said they won't cover each other's breaks so going with the right guy is gonna be important (of course AC could just go off on his own). I see LA biding his time and waiting for the right move. I think AC will be jumpy.

I still don't know how LA will do under super hard pressure. I don't think anyone does. He's looked fairly comfortable in the Pyrenees to me. But it wasn't super hard climbing either. He has no where near the jump of AC that's for sure.

I think a lot depends on placings after the last ITT too. I imagine Sastre's gotta try something and may be way out after that last TT. Evans is super aggressive so I expect some fireworks from him all the time.

I still don't know much about Schlecklet's TT abilities. Any idea how much he loses in the final TT? If he's as strong as he thinks he is in mountains, I imagine we'll see many attacks in the Alps and not just on Ventoux.

I'm really looking forward to the last week. Gonna be super good racing I think.
 
richwagmn said:
Thinking about the last week, if LA is strong, I gotta think he'll have a slight tactical advantage over AC. I worry about AC getting jumpy and going with a break that goes hard, gets caught and enables LA to counter attack. Both riders have said they won't cover each other's breaks so going with the right guy is gonna be important (of course AC could just go off on his own). I see LA biding his time and waiting for the right move. I think AC will be jumpy.

I still don't know how LA will do under super hard pressure. I don't think anyone does. He's looked fairly comfortable in the Pyrenees to me. But it wasn't super hard climbing either. He has no where near the jump of AC that's for sure.

I think a lot depends on placings after the last ITT too. I imagine Sastre's gotta try something and may be way out after that last TT. Evans is super aggressive so I expect some fireworks from him all the time.

I still don't know much about Schlecklet's TT abilities. Any idea how much he loses in the final TT? If he's as strong as he thinks he is in mountains, I imagine we'll see many attacks in the Alps and not just on Ventoux.

I'm really looking forward to the last week. Gonna be super good racing I think.
Just a reminder for folks, in 2007 Contador needed TIME. He doesn't need to gain time on any of his competitors, just to mark their attacks. At least with respect to Cadel Evans, I don't think he'll have any problems doing that. And Baby Schleck doesn't really put his heart into his attacks. The only real question is Sastre.

I guess that's why I'm not worried. He doesn't have to gamble down the stretch. And to a man, everyone on Astana talks about how strong he is right now.
 
Jun 18, 2009
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Publicus said:
Just a reminder for folks, in 2007 Contador needed TIME. He doesn't need to gain time on any of his competitors, just to mark their attacks. At least with respect to Cadel Evans, I don't think he'll have any problems doing that. And Baby Schleck doesn't really put his heart into his attacks. The only real question is Sastre.

I guess that's why I'm not worried. He doesn't have to gamble down the stretch. And to a man, everyone on Astana talks about how strong he is right now.
What's your prediction for the ITT with regards to AC and LA?
 
Jun 30, 2009
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richwagmn said:
What's your prediction for the ITT with regards to AC and LA?
i'll still take armstrong. i feel like the 10th place in the opener was more the result of lance still building form for the last week rather than dwindling form altogether. though, to be fair, i'm basing this on nothing at all.
 

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