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Are you kidding?! A 15 km flat run-in doesn't mean a bad race if you have numerous obstacles before that, like 10-15 cobbled bergs, or 5-10 steep hills, or 2-3 mountains, but if you have Passo del Turchino, Le Manie and Cipressa before that 15 km run-in, that only means one thing, a bunch sprint!
I don’t think that’s a given. We’ve seen in recent MSRs that even the Cipressa/Poggio can be very selective, if raced hard enough. The Turchino is too far out to have a similar effect, but if a team really goes for it on Le Manie, less than 100km from the finish, it’s possible to create a gap worth working to hold. Certainly some sprinters would get dropped, so there would be a motivation in the peloton to keep the pace high.
It's a given.
The lack of respect here for the monstrous Capi climbs is outrageous
Both have won normal sprints against "elite sprinters". I don't see why especially van der Poel wouldn't be in contention for the win otherwise.
Yep, they won from the smaller groups, beat some fast guys, like Sagan, Trentin, but I'm talking about at least 30-40 men sprint, with the likes of Ewan, Gaviria, Viviani, Ackermann, even Groenewegen present. I don't think they will stand a chance in that company...
So... you mean a bunch with elite sprinters like Ewan, Viviani... like the sprint van Aert won in TDF? Van der poel is generally considered as fast or faster than van Aert.
That could depend on how hard the Cipressa is raced, or if Le Manie is added how hard that is raced. Quickstep will try to make the climbs as hard as possible because even if they can’t spring Alaphilippe in a breakaway, Bennett will still climb better than Ewan, Groenewegen etc. Then you’d have, say, FDJ working for Demare or UAE for Gaviria once Groenewegen gets dropped.
PT had a big tailwind usually and a field that was very tired anyway though.
I didn't said that Sagan is not a sprinter, of course he is, among many other things. I however say right now that Van Der Poel is not a sprinter and if this race comes to a bunch sprint of 30-40 guys he ain't going to win, no matter what freaking Wout Van Aert did in the Tour de France! All this applies to Julian Alaphilippe also, even more.
You're free to your opinion. Van der Poel is very comparable to Sagan. Not "only" a sprinter, and initially people wouldn't have even considered him a sprinter (just like they didn't think Sagan could win from "pure" sprinters, until he did). They are both very versatile riders who are also very strong sprinters. I hope you remember your statement the first time van der Poel wins a sprint from Viviani, Ewan or Sagan. Because he can and will, if the situation grants it (just like van Aert in TDF).
Don’t forget that MSR is a very different sprint to the end of 5 flat hours in the middle of a GT, when half the peloton is basically on a rest day. In the years when it has ended in a bunch sprint, the podiums and top 10 are very different from your usual sprint top 10. Oscar Freire has more bunch sprint wins at MSR and the Worlds than he does at the Tour de France.
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