Landslides could see Poggio removed from 2020 Milan San Remo

Page 2 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Don’t forget that MSR is a very different sprint to the end of 5 flat hours in the middle of a GT, when half the peloton is basically on a rest day. In the years when it has ended in a bunch sprint, the podiums and top 10 are very different from your usual sprint top 10. Oscar Freire has more bunch sprint wins at MSR and the Worlds than he does at the Tour de France.
Yeah, but his point was that van der Poel could never win without the Poggio against Viviani, Ewan etc. When it would be an easier finale.
 
With Pompeiana in their legs, I'm not sure we will see a traditional winner of a bunch sprint even if the group is very large.

But there are many problems with Pompeiana. Is it too hard for most sprinters? Even the semi-sprinters. MSR should always have a good balance between favoring the escapees and sprinters.



The peloton will likely ride it as a MTF with the decisive attacks being done on the steepest parts.
 
You're free to your opinion. Van der Poel is very comparable to Sagan. Not "only" a sprinter, and initially people wouldn't have even considered him a sprinter (just like they didn't think Sagan could win from "pure" sprinters, until he did). They are both very versatile riders who are also very strong sprinters. I hope you remember your statement the first time van der Poel wins a sprint from Viviani, Ewan or Sagan. Because he can and will, if the situation grants it (just like van Aert in TDF).
But what’s being talked about, as I understand it, is a bunch sprint with four or five of the let’s say eight fastest sprinters participating. Nobody other than one of those guys is likely to win in that situation. A WVA or MVDP can occasionally beat any one of those guys in a sprint, if things get messy, the faster rider gets boxed in or loses position or goes too soon, etc. But that’s really not at all likely in a bunch sprint against all of say Ewan, Bennett, Gaviria, Ackermann etc. They won’t all get unlucky simultaneously. A very late preemptive attack is more likely to work than trying an actual bunch sprint.
 
Reactions: Blanco
With Pompeiana in their legs, I'm not sure we will see a traditional winner of a bunch sprint even if the group is very large.

But there are many problems with Pompeiana. Is it too hard for most sprinters? Even the semi-sprinters. MSR should always have a good balance between favoring the escapees and sprinters.



The peloton will likely ride it as a MTF with the decisive attacks being done on the steepest parts.
If they take out of contention the sprinters will be perfectly in line with the history of the race, in the past when they saw that sprinters started to win they added the Poggio to avoid a sprinter win (and the same goes for the Cipressa a couple of decades later).

Anyway, as I said in the general news thread a couple of days ago, there are dozens of landslides all along the Aurelia so if they aren't able to fix everything they could be forced make detours and the race harder and according to local news also the Poggio landslide is affecting the Aurelia because it's the wall that separates the two roads that is collapsing, not to mention the situation on the descent of Turchino that could mean an harder climb instead.
 
Reactions: Velolover2
But what’s being talked about, as I understand it, is a bunch sprint with four or five of the let’s say eight fastest sprinters participating. Nobody other than one of those guys is likely to win in that situation. A WVA or MVDP can occasionally beat any one of those guys in a sprint, if things get messy, the faster rider gets boxed in or loses position or goes too soon, etc. But that’s really not at all likely in a bunch sprint against all of say Ewan, Bennett, Gaviria, Ackermann etc. They won’t all get unlucky simultaneously. A very late preemptive attack is more likely to work than trying an actual bunch sprint.
Isn’t that exactly what happened with Demarre’s win, though? Gaviria’s crash took out most of the likely sprinters. Demarre won as “last fast man standing.”

Obviously I doubt vdP is going to trust in a big crash happening, but it could happen. And I agree that if Ewan, Bennett, Ackerman etc are still present, the best chance for vdP is to attack early (vanAert in that situation would most likely be working for Ackerman). But I disagree that vdP wouldn’t have a chance in that situation against that field.
 
But what’s being talked about, as I understand it, is a bunch sprint with four or five of the let’s say eight fastest sprinters participating. Nobody other than one of those guys is likely to win in that situation. A WVA or MVDP can occasionally beat any one of those guys in a sprint, if things get messy, the faster rider gets boxed in or loses position or goes too soon, etc. But that’s really not at all likely in a bunch sprint against all of say Ewan, Bennett, Gaviria, Ackermann etc. They won’t all get unlucky simultaneously. A very late preemptive attack is more likely to work than trying an actual bunch sprint.
We'll see. But i think in a sprint against those guys, he has as much of a chance as most of them. Not unlike Sagan who isn't "just" a sprinter, he'll be able to beat a lot of those guys quite often imho. Also, van Aert didn't beat "one of them", he beat Ewan, Viviani & Sagan all at once in a full out drag race. Every sprint is different, and it's not always the fastest who wins. If a guy like van der Poel is placed best going into the final 500 meters, he has a big chance of finishing it. I find it amusing how people still seem to underestimate him.
 
But what’s being talked about, as I understand it, is a bunch sprint with four or five of the let’s say eight fastest sprinters participating. Nobody other than one of those guys is likely to win in that situation. A WVA or MVDP can occasionally beat any one of those guys in a sprint, if things get messy, the faster rider gets boxed in or loses position or goes too soon, etc. But that’s really not at all likely in a bunch sprint against all of say Ewan, Bennett, Gaviria, Ackermann etc. They won’t all get unlucky simultaneously. A very late preemptive attack is more likely to work than trying an actual bunch sprint.
Exactly!
 
That could depend on how hard the Cipressa is raced, or if Le Manie is added how hard that is raced. Quickstep will try to make the climbs as hard as possible because even if they can’t spring Alaphilippe in a breakaway, Bennett will still climb better than Ewan, Groenewegen etc. Then you’d have, say, FDJ working for Demare or UAE for Gaviria once Groenewegen gets dropped.
The problem is that Cipressa insn't especially tough. An average of just over 4 % and the toughest 500m is about 6 %. The average pace will be about 35 km/h. That is far too fast for creating gaps big enough to stay away for the last 15 km. Maybe if they addes Le Manie and an additional climb between Le Manie and Cipressa, the size of the group after Cipressa could be small enough to control in a good way, and encouarge numours attacks on the last 15 km. Otherwise we'll see a bunch sprint.

 
Reactions: Red Rick
Btw, what about the Civezza climb? It would come directly before Cipressa, and seem to have a quite similar profile to Cipressa. That would mean a 5 km, 5 % climb, descent and heading straight into Cipressa.

And what actually happened to Le Manie? Was it removed due to practical or tactical reasons?
 
Last edited:
I think adding Le Manie and other perhaps another climb before the Cipressa is preferable over Pompeiana.

Pompeiana would kill all regular sprinters dead
Not necessarily. Pompeiana is just at small step up from Cipressa in terms of difficulty. And without Poggio, it would still be something like 10 kms of flat after the descent from Pompeiana. I don't think Cipressa-Pompeiana would make it much less likely for a sprinter to win than ususal Cipressa-Poggio combo.

If you look at different route options. First with Poggio:

1: Cipressa-Poggio
2: Pompeiana - Poggio
3: Cipressa - Pompeiana - Poggio.

and without:

4: Cipressa
5: Pompeiana - Cipressa

Option 3 would probably make it almost impossible for sprinters. Option 4 is IMO too easy unless they add something before Cipressa. And then something more than Le Manie. The last years there have been less than 3 kms of flat after Poggio, and still then it's only matter of a few seconds for avoiding a bunch sprint. With 15 kms after Cipressa, the chance would be at least 80-90 % for a bunch sprint with at least 30-40 riders.

I would actually welcomed it if they tried option 2 for a couple of years, if they managed to solve the logistical problems related to using Pompeiana. Right now it's mostly a waiting game for Poggio. Cipressa isn't steep enough and the amount of flat between Cipressa and Poggio is too long for any serious attacks taking place on Cipressa. Pompeiana has somewhat higher average gradient and higher average of the steepest sections than Cipressa. It would also mean less than 5 kms of flat before Poggio insteas about 9 kms. Pompeiana would probably reduce the chance for the sprinters, but also made it more likely with an attack before Poggio.
 
Not necessarily. Pompeiana is just at small step up from Cipressa in terms of difficulty. And without Poggio, it would still be something like 10 kms of flat after the descent from Pompeiana. I don't think Cipressa-Pompeiana would make it much less likely for a sprinter to win than ususal Cipressa-Poggio combo.

If you look at different route options. First with Poggio:

1: Cipressa-Poggio
2: Pompeiana - Poggio
3: Cipressa - Pompeiana - Poggio.

and without:

4: Cipressa
5: Pompeiana - Cipressa

Option 3 would probably make it almost impossible for sprinters. Option 4 is IMO too easy unless they add something before Cipressa. And then something more than Le Manie. The last years there have been less than 3 kms of flat after Poggio, and still then it's only matter of a few seconds for avoiding a bunch sprint. With 15 kms after Cipressa, the chance would be at least 80-90 % for a bunch sprint with at least 30-40 riders.

I would actually welcomed it if they tried option 2 for a couple of years, if they managed to solve the logistical problems related to using Pompeiana. Right now it's mostly a waiting game for Poggio. Cipressa isn't steep enough and the amount of flat between Cipressa and Poggio is too long for any serious attacks taking place on Cipressa. Pompeiana has somewhat higher average gradient and higher average of the steepest sections than Cipressa. It would also mean less than 5 kms of flat before Poggio insteas about 9 kms. Pompeiana would probably reduce the chance for the sprinters, but also made it more likely with an attack before Poggio.
Pompeiana is basically a harder Poggio with a Cauberg on top. That hill is legit puncheur territory and gaps between groups will be big enough that they won't come back. Especially if they do it right after Cipressa any team that wants a hard race can just yolodrill Cipressa and any sprinter other than maybe Sagan, Van der Poel, Matthews or Trentin if you still count him as a sprinter will be torn to shreds.
 
Pompeiana is basically a harder Poggio with a Cauberg on top. That hill is legit puncheur territory and gaps between groups will be big enough that they won't come back. Especially if they do it right after Cipressa any team that wants a hard race can just yolodrill Cipressa and any sprinter other than maybe Sagan, Van der Poel, Matthews or Trentin if you still count him as a sprinter will be torn to shreds.
The steep section is only a few hundred meters. How big gaps could we be talking about? Maximum 20-30 seconds. Any anyway; that option would be better than just Cipressa and a much larger chance for riders like Viviani, Gaviria and Ewan fighting for the victory.
 
From what I understood with my ancient italian, the mayor said that it's not only because of the Poggio. The region has been under severe weather for a long time, with the red danger alerts issued for the upcoming days, and the infrastructures of the region are under threat of many damages (in addition of the 10 million euro damage already incurred for the reestablishment of the Poggio road).

The reasons are certainly true, but let's see if the mayor is not exaggerating the situation in order to apply pressure on the central government for money for maintenance and repairs on the region.
 
The reasons are certainly true, but let's see if the mayor is not exaggerating the situation in order to apply pressure on the central government for money for maintenance and repairs on the region.
Exactly this. Classic case of "If you don't help up, our country will lose an important venue". Not that he shouldn't use that approach, just likely (and hopefully) it's empty threats.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS